We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Pro - our issue isn’t necessarily the long term performance, but always the lack of communications from the STX management. They just seem happy to take our money, leak news to their family and friends and never keep us updated or provide any reassurance. If I had that, then I wouldn’t have reduced my stake and invested elsewhere until momentum starts to grow. This isn’t the only AIM l’m invested in but certainly has the worse communications.
Absolutely correct! That is a long term investment which will not disappoint regardless the mistakes done by the management. Shield has a product that can achieve hunderd of millions in revenues, however to accomplish that it takes time which in this particular case we should be looking into some years from today. Another factor which has to be considered here is that shield has just started and they need money to grow, therefore that is an inevitable fact. Unfortunately many people do not understand how the stock market works and are expecting the sp to take off from one day to the next. I am sure shield will make it eventually, it is only a matter of time.
Having listened to the investor presentation (Feb 22) I believe that given time Shield will come good! Mistakes have been made -like any business, but the management have got to grips with them and so can move on progressively! Investing in companies takes time to see a return-unfortunately many people want instant results! All the best to long term holders.
On that basis, it would appear that Jupiter is out, or presumably working towards a full exit.
The other major holders that have increased, based on the company website, are representative of individuals though, so again, presumably PI's averaging down and a bunch of new traders. Not actual institutional support. Not, IMO, something to give hope to current holders.
I could see the potential for current holders to perhaps feel a little remaining confidence/glimmer of hope, had either PMI or AOP increased their positions since then, but IMO this current publication of major shareholders does nothing to offset the many serious negatives at the time of print.
I am actually surprised that PMI remain here (assuming that is the case at the time of print). Do not know anything about Nestle's approach to investment management, so no opinion in their case.
AOP, as I suggested before, are the only ones that are going to do well here, IMO.
You would imagine that if they were dissatisfied with the BOD, with their clout here, we would have already seen changes by now. And yet nothing.
But perhaps tomorrow morning will see a detailed RNS update on what action they are in the process of taking against that third party...specifics on what BOD remuneration/salary cuts have been implemented...some new inside buys and clarity on the cash runway.
That would go some way to restoring faith and even reduce the lingering question marks over the actual credibility of this outfit too, I think. But, each day that passes without this, should make the calls for regulatory investigation grow louder.
They have had more than enough time since the last RNS to do all of the above. Disgraceful.
I was interested to see what the recent debacle would be on significant shareholders, I took a screenshot from the Stx website just after the recent RNS and have looked again today. Only 1 significant shareholder seems to have to sold or at least massively reduced their holding. While others have actually increased their holdings since. Those more experienced on here, rather than a mere amateur like me, may have some interesting thoughts on this? Can’t work out whether this is belief by these institutions that Stx will prosper or some other plan?
AOP Health 311,597,265 39.84%
Nestle S.A. 56,008,541 7.16%
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 55,066,651 7.04%
Interactive Investor (EO) 35,527,919 4.54%
Jupiter Asset Management 30,477,697 3.90%
Premier Miton Investor 29,113,136 3.72%
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO 26,411,783 3.38%
In accordance with AIM Rule 26, in so far as the Company is aware as at 09 February 2024, the percentage of the Company's issued share capital that is not in public hands is 43%.
AOP Health 311,597,265 39.84%
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 60,148,898 7.69%
Nestle, SA 56,008,541 7.16%
Interactive Investor (EO) 39,074,656 5.00%
Premier Miton Investors 29,113,136 3.72%
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO) 28,085,831 3.59%
In accordance with AIM Rule 26, in so far as the Company is aware as at 11 March 2024, the percentage of the Company’s issued share capital that is not in public hands is 43%.
This share leaks like a bucket. It has proved to be a total crock of ........
Why would they pay that much now? Either by accident, or design (depending on your viewpoint), Shield have very little leverage.
Plus a huge, entirely self-inflicted, cloud hanging over the whole management team. Especially the CEO.
Who still has not updated the market as to the action they are going to take against the third party, for those dishonest prescription numbers that Shield claim is where the blame for this lies.
Every day that passes with radio silence, further increases the stench of an operation that needs investigating, IMO.
The rapid decline in share price coupled with AOP Health's significant stake as the company closed the year with total sales of $17.5 million, a significant increase from $6.2 million a year prior, largely driven by robust demand for its iron deficiency treatment, Accrufer, suggests to me a potential imminent takeover. If you examine this article, you'll notice parallels between the current scenario and the situations preceding AOP's takeovers of Amomed and SciPharm.
In May 2023, AOP Health made a cash takeover bid of £46.1 million (equivalent to 6.2 pence per share) for Shield Therapeutics plc (Shield), which represents twice the current share price. I am confident that if AOP Health were to make the same offer tomorrow, they would likely secure the necessary votes from the majority of other shareholders.
*AOP Orphan takes over two healthcare companies:
https://www.aop-health.com/global_en/press/press-releases/rare-disease-pioneer-aop-orphan-takes-over-two-health-care-companies-strengthening-its-position-in-europe-as-well-as-vienna-as-a-research-and-business-hub/
STX was meant to be the next big thing. This is what an incompetent management can do to it's sp. shame!
If they knew about it and did not notify the market immediately, that alone would probably be enough for the authorities to act.
A clear breach of the rules that a listed company director is under obligation to follow.
Some elements of corporate law are quite complex. Some really are quite simple. Fiduciary duty, for one.
The interesting thing is that indemnity insurance for company directors does not cover you for absolutely every failure, although sadly it fairly likely would, in the event they were 'just' found guilty of failing to meet their fiduciary duties, for example. Not certain though, so if any of them have done something that merits sleepless nights, perhaps a little karma after all.
Unless one or more of the main shareholders decide to explore legal avenues, then it would require regulatory investigation, as far as I am aware.
So, even if they have done something that merits action, they might get away without facing appropriate consequences.
The only good thing is that the drug appears to be making a positive difference to the lives of those who are taking it, based on what we have been told anyway.
lwhl
i can understand why you're ****ed off, i feel the same way. i have nothing but contempt for management
i said in the post below : nothin has changed fundamentally for the chairman, not for us.
iat least i am convinced that shield has known about the prescription chaos for a long time, not just before the release on february 21st. but that makes it even worse in terms of trust.
ferric maltol is definitely worth more than the current value of the company
only one info from a patient and i have seen more
"yea the previous ones i took made me feel like that, but this brand my dr has me on doesn’t offer the generic version and i’ve seen a huge increase in my energy. ask your dr about accrufer, or what they think of it."
A lot has changed since the Chairman's 6p purchase. Primarily the fact that we cannot trust anything they report to the market, after the prescription chaos.
Which is simply one more big failure, on top of the many that went before.
While I make no assumption in either direction myself, I can understand why some people feel this looks like a deliberate stitch up ploy, because it is hard to believe that anyone could be this commercially useless and not get the chuck long before now.
That nobody within the company has seen fit to buy any shares since the last update, tells me that the current price is too expensive.
They are either going to have to take another loan on highly punitive terms, probably turning this company into a full blown zombie outfit until the lights go out in a few years time, or accept whatever cash offer AOP (presumably) are willing to hand them.
AOP are not going to pay more than they need to - and after the misleading prescriptions data reveal - maybe even they are unsure how much the drug is worth now. Unforgivable IMO.
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck etc.
Thank you Jimie,
I can't say anything about the prescription chaos and the provider who allegedly reported the numbers incorrectly. Of course I'm totally disappointed and frustrated.
In my opinion, the CCO and/or CFO is responsible. Ultimately, the CEO and the BOD are responsible for
What I would like to add is that I found out that definitely 8 reps left in September/October 2023, including 2 employees who had already worked for Shield in 2021/22.
That's quite a cut. Let's say there were 10 and I didn't discover 2.
These 10 must be replaced, which has already been done promptly, and incorporated. In Q4, the new ones will not have contributed anything to the 28,600 prescriptions.
This will probably change in Q1/24.
Knowing this, we are not talking about an increase rate of 22% in Q4 but 36%.
Assuming that each of the 100 reps received the same number of prescriptions, we are talking about 2330 fewer as a basis from Q3 to Q4, because 10 reps are no longer there. That would be it
23300 – 2330 = 20970
And the increase from 20970 to 28600 is not 22% but 36%.
I hope and assume that we will achieve at least 40% in Q1/24.
Nevertheless, the existing capital is practically used up in April 24 and an offering is not possible at the share price.
You can find a new partner in Japan, sell the rights for a whole territory e.g. China or sell the entire company. That's what remains.
Our luck is that the drug is really good and the patent protection in the important countries lasts until 2035.
The market value of the company bears no relation to the value of the drug.
I definitely won't sell now. A sale of the company will definitely deliver a higher share price than 2.3p per share.
Maybe Shield will also go via Japan or China (or another area, Europe is also a joke thanks to Norgine).
A sale or partial sale would definitely explain why no insider purchases were made.
The Chairman bought for 120K at 6p. It would now be available to buy for 2.3p.. Fundamentally nothing has changed since he bought it, internally the Chairman (and BOD) already knew about the numbers before Christmas.
We will see..
Personally I am optimistic in the long run. Indeed the management made some mistakes but they managed to triple revenues compared to previous year therefore we see an upward trajectory trend even if fhey slightly missed expectations. We must not forget that they just started and this requires money and time. They process a prduct that can achieve hunderd of millions in revenues especially when the other countries come into play and more specifically china. As you can realize this is a very long process which will pay off well unless a takeover occurs which i doubt it. The fall from 6p is over the top as the market took it very wrong. I own millions of shares with an average price of 6.5 and personally I am not selling not a single share. The stock is extremely undervalued at this price looking always in the long run. There will be some good news coming this year concerning Korea and Canada I guess which will push the share price up. In any case I am not worry at all. I will increase my position once the results in April come out and things will be more clear. No worries for Shield, needs patience and will bounce well back.
Thank you Frankie1x,
If we hadn't had the recent poor showing of TX numbers and the further dismiss of the share price, I would have read that as very positive. Unfortunately, all it does for me is underline that sales elsewhere or somewhere siginficant is going very badly. The sales trajectory curve is very much not taking off the way the board envisioned.
What an earth must OAP be thinking now? Where they as gullible as me? Is there some great master plan that I can't see?
Oh, for a buyout at 6-10p!!
Jimie
only for your information via paste and copy from an Viatris rep account
Successful result with 25 rx writers consistent in Q3 and Q4.
(My take : It could be much more as 25 rx. One rx writer could fill more as one prescription. )
-------------
Professional Sales Representative
Viatris
Launch and Promote Accrufer, the only FDA approved iron for all adults
regardless of underlying condition
• Q2 - 116% goal attainment and finished 12th in the nation
• Q3 - 90% goal attainment
• Q3 – Grew Memphis S. territory at 196% growth total prescriptions
• Q4 – 88% goal attainment as of 12/22/2023
• Consistent successful results with 25 new writers in Q2 and Q3
MVP Accrufer Detail Award Winner for Wave 3 Training
I think whoever is left holding here (myself included) is hoping for some game changing news which is going to dig us out of the huge chasm they’ve thrown us in.
What that might be is anyone’s guess.. takeover, inward investment, new partners, new territories. They certainly are not going to get the market to back any equity raise that’s for sure after this latest screw up by Greg.. with Trust totally shot to pieces hard to see where the company goes from here.
As for the funds on the register, wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve all bailed too.
Amazing to think Shield have this priceless iron deficiency cure and have totally effed it up. Expectation for survival (never mind success) have never been lower.
And in many ways, worst of all, no RNS stating regulatory investigation of the company yet, which IMO should absolutely be in motion.
I mean, what on earth does it take?!
Even if this latest 'mishap' was only the first questionable act (if only), this recent one alone should, IMO, be under formal scrutiny. Even if their errors were 'only' incompetent rather than something more sinister, heads should have rolled by now. That nothing further has been forthcoming increases the absolute stench here, IMO.
The issue with the over estimating of prescriptions and blaming it entirely on a 3rd party is bizarre IMHO.
As prescription numbers are reported after period end i am not sure why any estimation is required and this has never previously been mentioned to the market via RNS.
For example in Sept we were told that the H1 prescriptions were 26,284 - not estimated, but were reported as actual numbers.
In the Feb 2024 RNS we were told the estimation was flawed and numbers were marked down, including both Q1 and Q2 2023. Well Q1 2023 finished almost 11 months previous so even accounting for a time lag these 'estimates' should have been validated a few months afterwards.
So there are 3 issues here - the estimation methodology used (which STX should have reviewed and approved anyway), the fact that STX never told the market that prescriptions reported were not 100% accurate and were devised via this methodology and then thirdly that STX weren't verifying actual number vs estimates in a timely manner.
All 3 are 100% down to the BOD - yet no admission of error, no resignations and no doubt no clawback of bonuses
It simply comes down to how much (if anything) you can trust with this outfit.
Still no inside buys (lol), no TR-1's (incredible!) and no update on the apparent third party issue that resulted in this company misleading the market with an earlier update, that is at best a failure of fiduciary duty. We know what it is at worst.
Either way, they have destroyed shareholders here.
I just cant get my head round why the prescriptions growth has dropped off so badly in Q4. This was supposed to be when the 100 strong sales team got bedded in properly and would be running at full speed. Yet they managed a 4.8k increase in Q2 over Q1 (when the full team had not even been hired & trained), yet only 5.3k in Q4 over Q3. Or to put it another way, each sales rep (on average) contributed to an additional TX of 17 per month. Which just seems shocking, no other word for it. Comparing Q3 & Q4 2022, there was a 26 tx increase per sales rep (as I understand they had only 25 reps at that point), without the new marketing campaign and strengthen sales management team and each rep covering a smaller area (thus having a more targeted approach). I bet some reps are doing much better than 17 per month, which means some are probably contributing to single figure TX growth. Something has/is going wrong on the sales front. Lost a lot on this one and still holding 3/4 of my original investment. My fault (although CEO has a lot to answer for!), but I just didn't see sales growth slipping this badly.
Thanks frankie
Yes, you are right. Thx for the feedback
Ok, when I read this excerpt (see below) or overview of the market research on IDA, I simply cannot believe that Shield is languishing at 2.5, 6 or even 10 cents and that the company has no money left.
I know, of course, that management has made catastrophic mistakes, particularly Sterritt and Watts.
The research particularly examines the large, important markets that are lucrative for pharmaceutical companies. There are USA, Europe (UK, Italy, Germany, Spain and France). Yes and there is also JAPAN. Why the hell doesn't Shield have a partner in Japan?
Even if you find a partner right now (which can't actually be that difficult) and negotiate the contract with low royalties and a high number of milestones, especially at conclusion, we are free of all worries and can look positively into the future.
I also googled the Shield and Viatris teams in Linkedin and other programs. This is all fine now and some have even won prizes for boosting prescriptions in a big way.
There were a few departures from Shield in September/October 23, including 2 very experienced reps who were at Shield before 2023 and were part of the 22 team.
However, these positions were all filled again promptly.
Here is the link to the reading sample
https://www.delveinsight.com/report-store/iron-deficiency-anemia-market
And that's what they write about our medication
Feraccru/Accrufer (Ferric Maltol/ ST10): Shield Therapeutics
Feraccru/Accrufer is a novel oral product that addresses the needs of patients who cannot tolerate existing oral iron products and offers a clear alternative to IV iron therapy. The drug is formulated as a capsule of ferric maltol containing 30mg iron, Ferric maltol is a tightly bound iron complex which does not dissociate so it is well tolerated and delivers the iron to the duodenum where the body absorbs iron naturally. Unabsorbed ferric maltol passes harmlessly through the digestive system as an unaltered complex and is excreted. Therefore, the drug offers a convenient, well tolerated and efficacious oral treatment alternative to IV iron therapy, without the need for hospital-based administration. The company’s lead product, Feraccru/Accrufer, has been approved for use in the US, European Union, UK and Switzerland and has exclusive IP rights until the mid-2030s. In the European market the drug is marketed by the name of Feraccru.
Should actually sell like hot cakes...
Full year 2023 total revenue and other income of $17.5m compared to $6.2m in 2022
Full year 2023 Accrufer® revenue of $11.6m, approximately three times more than the prior year
21% increase in H2 Accrufer® average net selling price to $145/prescription
Looks like buying interest is picking up