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Just look at the last two fundraises - £15.1m in December 2022 and then £5.1m + £16m ($20m) debt facility - and compare it with today's mcap. We know full well from the misses that another funding round is going to be needed and now they have debt to service and are well short of break even they aren't going to access further debt financing so it's got to come via equity.
Raising just £10m this time around will double the shares in issue, add an extra 50% for another £5m.
This isn't investable until (i) financing has been arranged and (ii) there's a clear improvement seen that gives confidence to profitability being achievable.
Thank you all for your responses.
Did anyone try to get management to do Q&A with the investors ?
Also what about AGM ? Are the resolutions being approved when everyone is so unhappy?
As time has gone on here, it simply gets harder to 'just' put this down to useless corporate mismanagement. Just too many things that simply do not make sense.
Some of my earlier comments here outline what I think is going to be the end game here now.
None of them lead to a positive result for the majority of shareholders.
More recently, I have wondered if we might see an ETX or C4DX type of outcome, although I think the odds remain greater that AOP will simply issue the company with another loan, on ruinous terms that essentially might as well mean a wipe out for ordinary shareholders.
To be announced whenever we get the next update. Which will be full of the same BS as all the other ones probably.
Or maybe at best eg a 1p all share cash offer. Why would they pay more than they need to?
Ultimately, if they were unhappy with the CEO and wider management team, they would have been in a position to do something about it a long time ago. Something to ponder.
But others may hold different opinions and that is fine too. GLA. Except the BOD.
Lwhl,
Fully agree, shocking management and I do wonder has it been taken this way deliberately. The silence is shocking.
All the promises followed by continual inaction and failure at every turn.
FDA approval was not cheap (any idea of the cost)....but this company will be stolen by AOP at a cheap price or put into administration & bought out in a pre packed deal.
All IMHO, dyor
Riz,
The leaders in this company have failed to tell us who the 3rd party is they blame for what is a shambles. How can your revise down your forecasts and still miss it by 40+% and blame someone else.
No director has bought at these low low prices but then again that could be viewed as a slap in the teeth to us holding at a much higher price. I have a few cronies who will by big into this if it starts to move. But the path must be a lot clearer and I don't think those in charge have the capabilities for clearing a path.
How much of the funding have they burnt through? No one knows as they tell us paupers very little.
Riz29: In addition to reviewing all the formal material of the past 12-18 months, which I presume you have already done, have a look and listen to all the interviews too. Plenty of stuff on the internet to this end.
Listen to all the promises and general positive patter.
Then compare it with what has actually been delivered. Well, as much as we can rely on what they claim has been achieved of course (misleading prescription numbers, ahem).
How enthusiastic the CEO has always been...except when it comes to putting his hand in his pocket and actually buying some shares himself.
You could be forgiven for thinking he was working pro bono, but instead, and I doubt many would argue, his remuneration is really very generous.
Indeed, it would be generous, even if he had taken the company to profitability, which should have been achieved by now.
More red flags than a beach in a storm. Whether by accident or design, this is a dog with fleas.
At best, a commercial car crash. Shareholder value destroyed, thanks to a useless management team.
Or at worst, one that has been deliberately taken in this direction.
Either way, one that should already be under regulatory investigation to establish which of these two scenarios applies - but this is AIM - and so we will probably never know.
But to each their own views naturally.
Thank you for your reply HarChris.
I understand that they missed their target and it must be hard for investors who have been sitting on this at much higher price.
At current price do you not think its a buy? Especially because they are still increasing their revenue, and by mid 2025 will be cash positive. I did a bit of calc, if the operating cost remain the same, we will likely to see around £10m loss approx. I don't know how accurate this is. But the losses are slowly coming down which makes is more compelling to buy. The other thing to consider is , will they need more cash? Based on the recent update they had £13m cash in Dec. This makes me think they don't need to raise straight away. Maybe in 6 months? Who knows... I guess we will find out week after next.
In summary Shield has underperformed against expectations time and time again.
The most recent equity raise and debt facility was to get STX to breakeven. For this to happen they needed to hit very punchy targets but not only did the most recent results show they are on the completely wrong path (28.6k prescriptions vs 55.5k target) but the previous quarters were revised down too.
So for example prescriptions in 2023 came in at 77k and if you just looked at the 206% growth rate you might think excellent! But this was the year when the full sales force were in place and trained up. Do you know what the original guidance for 2023 was? 140K, it was then downgraded to 100k-130k range and that was missed by a mile.
In order for that cash break even to be achieved before a cash call is needed STX are going to need to up their average net price per Rx in 2024 and beat the previous target of 330k prescriptions... how likely do you think that is compared with 77k in 2023? And at what cost do you think the cash call will come at if it isn't achieved now that the current mcap has fallen to just £11m?
Hard to know their cash position. IMO worth waiting for the FY as it could be dire or they could be sat at around $8/9m.
Have to admit… seems like death by 1000 cuts
“ Annual operating expenses for Shield are expected to be between US$42m and US$50m in 2023 and are expected to remain approximately at this level until the year ending 31 December 2025 assuming Accrufer® prescriptions and revenues build as indicated above. The costs of servicing interest and principal amortization, commencing in Q4 2025, on the SWK Financing (based on current 12-month SOFR) will be around US$3m in 2024 and US$4m in 2025. No increase in annual interest charges is assumed in the Company's statement that it expects to turn cash flow positive in Q4 2024 (based on its own estimates”
Unless they can pull a rabbit out of a hat (possible) this one looks doomed for now…
Possibly worth a punt on the back of some unforeseen magic !?
SO GLAD DID NOT BUY AT 2 WAITED now its 1.5 its doomed very sad priced to fail?
Well they’ve got a new role advertised…
“Technical Accounting and Reporting Manager”
— seems like they need somebody to work out all the millions they’re making - or at least prepare April’s report ;-)
Hi all - I am trying to research this . Can a long term holder be kind enough to give a summary of what’s happened and why has the price dropped so low ? I looked at the interim results - they don’t look so bad . So can’t figure out the reason for the drop
For sure, if this next update isn’t any good then many, like myself, will simply sell up and move on. I’ll just go without a few extra holidays when I retire. The carrot dangling in front of my nose is becoming full of maggots.
Blimey. You still think so, after all this time and evidence to the contrary?
You should notify the CEO that he is missing the chance to load the boat here at these prices :)
Amazing how you are able to brush over such an oversight, like it was a trifling clerical error.
Or the lack of company updates since they misled investors in this latest and perhaps most serious mistake, to date.
If they do not provide an update on what action they have taken against the third party that they claim was responsible for this serious corporate failure at that point, then surely the few remaining bulls here will start to wonder whether this outfit justifies their continued faith?
Oversold imo - Shield said it had delivered USD17.5 million in revenue, up nearly three-fold from USD6.2 million in 2022.
Prescriptions are up x3 since 2023 @ 77000. Currently, they have lost investor confidence because of a mistake in the quoted amount so I'm holding on to the published results 30th April.
The figures above are still strong so a big SP up-turn could be on the cards.
YE results to be reported 30/4. Will we get a Q1 update then too, and if so can we believe them!!
Yes and to be on target to reach cash flow break even without further funding they needed to be at or close to the 55000 prescriptions target in q4... instead they achieved just half that.
Do you think they are going to achieve the previous target of 330000 Rx in 2024 now, after achieving 77000 RX in 2023?
We don't know exactly how long the cash runway is but the market is betting on it not being very long.
You have not then taken account of revenue for the six months to Dec23.
6p would be a dream and highly unlikely now.
Cash was $13.6m end of June. They then $6.2m + a $20m debt facility and then finished the year with $13.9m. I don't think mgmt shared how much of the debt facility was drawn down but therefore it can assume to be significant.
The market suspects cash is dwindling to zero now and with the mcap at just £12m and debt on the books (despite being pre profit) what comes next is dilution to oblivion - or a cheap buyout at 2p.
It looks like i guessed it right! Unfortunate for the holders, no doubt.
Frankie
Jupiter have gone. The rest I think is just rounding. Milton looks the same. I suppose the insets are just like us. They are locked in.
Frankly I think the only hope here is a trade buyer or AOP step in. 6p would be a dream...
Well, HL, Interactive Investor and AJ Bell are simply custodians of ordinary people's money, so I do not count them (apart from noting an increase in retail positions here).
Fair point that PMI remain unchanged according to that (which surprises me, to be honest). No opinion on Nestle, as I know nothing about their investment management protocols.
I seem to remember PMI finally exiting Woodbois (if memory serves correct) quite a long time after they should have, to my mind (not on my radar now, so no idea in either direction now), a couple of years ago or so. That is another company that....threw up some interesting SP activity at times back then, some might have concluded. But I digress.
If anyone (apart from the BOD of course) is going to make money here, it is surely going to be AOP.
I can easily see another update at some point signalling extreme financial distress and a 'rescue' from AOP....either a loan on terms that might as well mean this goes into admin, as far as other shareholders are concerned, or perhaps an all share cash offer, at a price that also means no other shareholder walks away without a material loss. Sub 1p type of thing.
The longer the radio silence, the worse the reality, IMO.
None of which should have ever happened, nor can be easily explained away either, IMO.
But hey, I could be wrong. At least about the end price here. I am absolutely convinced that I am not wrong insofar as some of the other stuff that has taken this from pounds to not even pennies now. Hey ho. Not my job to investigate. Nor anyone else it seems, lol.
GLA (except the BOD).
No question I´m with you when it comes to the credibility and quality of the STX management.
On the other hand STX updated the significant shareholder today. No one reduced or quit totally but all except AOP, Nestle and Milton added If I´m right.
Why do half of the large investors accumulate?
Sinificant shareholders > 3%, updated on 8/4/24
AOP Health 311,597,265 39.84
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 60,742,305 7.77
Nestle, SA 56,008,541 7.16
Interactive Investor (EO) 42,682,231 5.46
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO) 30,778,385 3.94
Premier Miton Investors 29,113,136 3.72
Sinificant shareholders > 3%, updated on 11/3/24
AOP Health 311,597,265 39.84%
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 60,148,898 7.69%
Nestle, SA 56,008,541 7.16%
Interactive Investor (EO) 39,074,656 5.00%
Premier Miton Investors 29,113,136 3.72%
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO) 28,085,831 3.59%
Significant shareholders with > 3% before the rx number fiasco
AOP Health 311,597,265 39.84%
Nestle S.A. 56,008,541 7.16%
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 55,066,651 7.04%
Interactive Investor (EO) 35,527,919 4.54%
Jupiter Asset Management 30,477,697 3.90%
Premier Miton Investor 29,113,136 3.72%
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO 26,411,783 3.38%
SP couldn’t hold and dropped tells me there would be few more big after hour sells. Typical AIM dodgy business