Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/09/12/a-building-materials-recovery-buy/ from yesterday
The company has lost its growth company rating but it hasn’t become a bad company with bad management.
Tricky macro situation and too much debt for the current situation that wouldn’t matter for a larger company.
An enterprise value of about 7 times Ebitda looks about right.
Management just need to get their head down and churn out cash and ride out the storm.
Would be better currently as a private company with PE backing.
As a listed company then the SP is unlikely to recover for a while and I think that it could go to 35p.
It really is a bit depressing. I have been in this for ages and ages so when it rose I sold a load and gave myself a bonus. Howver the price is almost back to its lows so although all the shares I have a freebies it hurts to watch the fall. Will hold those I have but am currently not planning to add. The market is looking a bit dodgy alround. The problem is cash is not answer either GL
Nothing we were not previously aware of in the results - although the new lime production JV looks very interesting. However - all the positive aspects of the business - buy to build, European expansion, exposure to UK housing and infrastructure, low interest rate funding - all now come with a growing degree of risk into the next 12 months and beyond. Although these were only the interim accounts - I did not see any reference to the loss of shareholder value here and how the company plans to address this issue. No capital growth, no dividend, no share buybacks, no director purchases - little wonder how the share price has reacted. SB
The rns this morning is good enough to convince me to hold. Truthfully there is not a lot out there to tempt me to move.
It is going to take some time to get back to where it was so just going to hibernate for a while..
All looks encouraging.But still a lot of debt.Misleading headline comparison of cash.At 31 Dec it was £69m.Net debt position more meaningful.
Lots of positives in results.
I suspect market will be concerned about energy cost outlook and what happens when hedges expire.
I like the progress on Greenbloc which sounds like it is getting real traction.
Hopefully market will be a bit less negative about this group
looks like excellent results.also the new joint venture is extremely interesting in terms of future development.it's going to be a medium term project from the looks of things,but potentially a very significant development.
07-Sep-22 14:30:08 47.84999 142,083 Unknown* 47.60 48.00 67.99k O
I was wondering if we would see a change in the TR1, and wanted to be able to refer back to that amount.
Interesting about the options. I do think this will go on a run soon. Im planning to hold for a quite a while.
It would be nice to see a tick up before results, other side of 50p for starters.
You would think that being highly professional and disciplined, Blackrock would reduce the short significantly before results, as usually holding a large trading position is a no no going in to results.
There have been quite a few large trades of this size for some time now Dartron - and I'm pretty sure as you have noted that Blackrock are right in the middle of this - although traders in different area of the same hedge fund are known to take differing positions based on their own company, sector and economic research - possible on this occasion they are working an short and long together. Also interesting that we have seen no new acquisitions since Johnston in January - reflecting both the macro economic position and imo the focus on the 12 month trading period to 31st Dec 2023. There are significant share awards due to the senior team based on achieving both a target eps (6p minimum up to 8p maximum - to secure 75% of share awards) with the remaining 25% linked to share price return from an 85p base - as at 31.12.2023. Given the threat of a recession, ongoing turbulence in European markets, scaling up of interest payments due under the term loan and energy - I would not be surprised to see a period of consolidation seeking to try and hit the 8eps target next year - max has 11m options alone. Quite frankly I would be more than happy if we got back to 85p per share as well. Lets see what else we can find out from the interims next week. SB
Keeping a note of this one..
06-Sep-22 13:58:05 47.10 705,739 Unknown* 47.00 47.20 332.40k O
Very interesting what Blackrock have been doing. They seem to have been responsible for the sell off from around 70p, throughout 2022. Utilizing a short position to profit from the drop, yet also devaluing their stake. The fact they have kept most of their holding shows the quality of the investment here. Cant see them wanting this to go much lower, since they are holding 12% of the company, in fact thinking 47p is the bottom until results. Holding some of these in my pension, expecting several 100% returns over the next 5 years, might it be £4.70 in 2024, and £10 in 2026? Results on Monday.
This site and others are showing 12 Sept for the results, which is next Monday. Just a heads up that the RNS stated:
"The Group expects to publish its 2022 interim results by 12 September 2022."
The word "by" in there gives potential for later this week, maybe Thursday as it's a common day for these things. Worth just keeping an eye out in case.
Fundamentals don’t seem to matter much here any more. Poor liquidity and persistent selling by Blackrock.
The corporate broker should do their job and take them out in one go rather than drip drip.
Or company use facility to buy them back. Better for shareholder value than an acquisition currently
Here here SB.
Sub £300M mcap, PE less than 7. Half year earnings already announced as on track. Its time to start buying I think.
Where is the bottom? Where do other large II's see value in buying from Blackrock?
I looked back at the RNS, whilst they reduced the CFD, they have only sold down 1% equity since 28/04/2022. i.e. started on 13% and now on 12%. They are ultimately still long here, and I expect tide to turn very soon. Plenty of other II holders still here also.
Not a lot of sense in the markets at the moment spindok - and no real view as to when/if things will calm down. Glad to hear some one got out in profit. Latest RNS confirms Blackrock continuing to reduce - closing their CFD and long position. Food for thought - our nearest competitor is Breedon - and they have just posted interim results which show 3p eps and full year trading at upper end of expectations - so full year eps of 6p? SRC posed 3.6p eps for first half of 2022 - so 7p for full year. Breedon pay an interim and full year dividend, and have £200m net debt. SRC pay no dividend and had net debt of £164m last available data. Breedon market cap is £900m+. SRC is £300m.......SB
The price is falling on a daily basis. I am glad I sold the majority of my holding some time ago leaving more or less a free lot to ride it out. Now I wish I had sold the lot. It looks very cheap but bargains always do until you get them home..
Following the recent trading update, Analyst Charlie Campbell at Liberum Capital, one of the group’s joint brokers, has a ‘Buy’ out on the shares, with a price objective of 130p.
" He considers that the shares look very cheap, with the market underestimating the group’s resilience in its cash flows, in its geographic diversity and end market exposure. His estimates are for sales to almost double from £272m to £510m this year, taking account of the recent major acquisitions. He sees pre-tax profits more than doubling from £26.8m to £59.0m, lifting earnings up from 5.0p to 6.6p per share. For the next two years his figures are for £528m then £545m in sales in 2023 and 2024 respectively with profits rising to £63.3m then £68.2m in those years, worth 7.1p then 7.7p per share in earnings. "
The trading update highlighted H1 EBITDA of £48m, ep of 3.6p on a £248m turnover. Despite that, the large sells remain.....depressing the share value to a bonkers valuation - but management options are linked to eps not share price so there is less incentive to move market value than we would wish - and II's are voting with their feet accordingly. SB
Don't think that's an unrealistic price expectation banker - frankly its massively disappointing to be at the current levels given the recent trading update. Interesting set of trades close of business yesterday - wonder if this is more Blackrock activity - who appear to be closing both long and short positions at the same time based on last holdings notification. SB
Bought few more ....seems bullish first target 66
impending IC update?
Second quarter better than first as Johnson added some volume. On track for a £500m revenue business and getting close to 20% EBITDA - and 7p eps full year. Currently trading at 4 x EBITDA….really?!! Strong update and does confirm the value being created here - would still like to hear some management thoughts on our buy to build strategy in current funding climate, cash allocation and regional performance - but assume this will be captured with the full H1 results. Share price appreciation mid term likely to be linked to shareholder return beyond capital appreciation. The company could consider the intro of a small dividend starting next year to encourage investors. SB
Looks good. 48 M ebit and strong cash generation.
Allays any concerns over funding payments.
Hopefully they will follow up with a call to give more detail.
Maybe now the share price can return to sensible levels.. I say hopefully
only had time to skim read, but looks very positive.