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ericnat: "Just done a very quick calculation and after Sound has paid the Lease cost. This is worth deal on its own is worth 1.4p per share every year. If sound pay off the debt, bond and tax over the first 5 years this goes down to app .8p per share, and then following 5 years it is over 1.4p per share per year."
That would beg the question as to why SP Angel values it at -1p (minus one) per share? I repeat my fag packet calculation from April 18th:
Assuming the LNG flows on schedule the revenue side is easy -- it's $8m per year. He has about $2.2m in debt interest and bond coupon for the first year or two. Add in some figure for SOU wages and running costs. Then he has to start paying an additional $3m of bond amortisation per year for four years. At the end of that there is the remainder of the bond to pay off plus deferred interest, amounting to $20m. Basically, every remaining cent of revenue from the start of LNG would have to be saved up to meet that bill. Post 2027 he has to start saving to pay off the debt from the gas purchaser, due in the early 2030s. But that's easier because the LNG plant lease is up soon after, and SOU revenue will increase by around $6m/year. SOU is effectively debt free by 2030.
(The above takes no account of the $14m tax bill. Also bear in mind the additional 260 million shares and warrants promised to the bondholders and gas purchase).
Just done a very quick calculation and after Sound has paid the Lease cost. This is worth deal on its own is worth 1.4p per share every year
If sound pay off the debt, bond and tax over the first 5 years this goes down to app .8p per share.
and then following 5 years it is over 1.4p per share per year.
And this is just brief calculation based on phase 1 with Sound acting as a shell company. If phase 2 gets going then we are looking at many multiples of this.
If we add to this a free carry with Sidi Moktar, you can see why we may become a target for a buyout.
The ship is now steadied and very much aligned to the Moroccan government long term energy plans
Ilyas01: "My take is - on good news (RNS's to come) we may see a rise to 10p this year. Have I got it totally wrong?"
Yes. Totally, utterly wrong. Check the actual forward valuation that is available.
"I got on board earlier this week with a long position, already down the amount I placed on my position :-). Hopefully this is not the trend here."
The trend is easy for you to check yourself. Series of "good news" RNS's over the last two years, shareholders bilked for easy money in a raise. SP slides as the news turns out to not be what you thought. Check out that other joker, ShareTrader123 (who seems to have disappeared) with his manic optimism. He's one of the earlier batch of losers who got sucked in.
ericnat: "The provisional has done its job, now its time to see what GL can do about renegotiating."
Renegotiating what? The gas purchaser deal is not over the line. Nor does it seem likely it will be until the tax bill is sorted. Would YOU lend someone $13m when they are at risk of being shut down by the tax man? Would be stark raving nuts. Not happening.
"Also we will own the plant at the end of the lease. The bond will be paid off quickly it is then Gravy from there."
Uh, no. Does anyone actually READ the figures plainly available via RNS? Even when the lease ends SOU will be pinned to its collar to get the bond paid off and then the gas purchaser loan. That will take every cent of LNG revenue until 2032. There is a reason this phase of the project has a NEGATIVE value. It keeps SOU alive but is worth zilch to shareholders.
"That is for preparation of selling all of the assets and a significant dividend return to share holders."
You're having a laugh. Even with SOU borrowing to build a pipeline it is worth 6.5p per share. Sell it to someone else who has to build the pipeline and they will take the lions share i.e. LESS than 6.5p per share to SOU. And all that is years away in the best case.
sundance: "In the words of the joker, why so serious !!!!"
Simply bemused that nobody here seems to be able to smell the coffee beans. I genuinely wonder if anyone actually bothers to read the company info. People speculating about 10p (or 40p in one case recently) when the company themselves have told you it's worth nothing like that, nor will be worth anything at all in the next two years. People seem to imagine some "magic happens here" moment without any reference to actual reality. It's truly bizarre.
And finally...
ktf: "I filtered a long while back ... similar in style to that other manic depressive trellis. similar time of posting too, usually late at night"
Trellis works overnight. So do I. Sorry to burst your bubble. Oh yeah, about that filtering ... we both know you read all the posts. But will enjoy picturing you squirm, unable to answer this in order to keep up the pretence ;-)
Finally finally, would love to see somebody, anybody, put forward their valuation with ACTUAL FIGURES to back it up.
It was Carry On Cleo, when Caesar aka Kenneth Williams is assassinated.
IT IS
I thought that was a carry on film, not monty python?
I can Kenneth Williams in my mind......
I'm pretty sure it was 'Carry On up the Khyber', spoken by said Ken.
I got on board earlier this week with a long position, already down the amount I placed on my position :-). Hopefully this is not the trend here.
The anger from losing the earned money is justified (yes yes.no one forcd you to buy.bla bla). Im sure that most of the long termers here are angry. But, it should be directed to the cause and the company/assets is not. It is the gangsters gang with James Parsons the criminal and JJ Taynor the lier who is trying now to save tje humanity from global warming. They should be exposed for what they are.
Carry On Cleo
Ahhh yes you are perfectly correct it was ,but you know what I mean
Good morning,
Decided to take a punt on Sound again (did that many years ago but sold out before the meteoric rise from 2p to 60P etc.. when it was called Sound Oil).
My take is - on good news (RNS's to come) we may see a rise to 10p this year. Have I got it totally wrong?
is that idiot ps still posting? I filtered a long while back as he/she shows distinct signs of mental instability.
as an asside, I did think ps' posts were remarkably similar in style to that other manic depressive trellis. similar time of posting too, usually late at night .... I love the thought of these sad little people sitting screaming at their screens when they realise the sp has shot up :) think I'll spend my day posting negative cr&p about a share I have little or no investment in. or perhaps I'll actually go and spend the day doing something I enjoy :)
I thought that was a carry on film, not monty python?
I can Kenneth Williams in my mind......
Mr Ps
Thats it I have lost the will to live , the end is nigh ,infamy infamy theve got it infamy ( Monty Python)
I bet you are a hoot to go on a run ashore with can you write something that could be interpreted as funny ,I wonder if you can tell a joke , I can't see it .
In the words of the joker ,( Heath Ledger) why so serious !!!!
If were of the mind to end it all and had enough of this world I don't think I would log onto Lse and see what the scuttle but is as you are lurking in the shadows with a tsunami of bad news .
Anway Mr Ps ,if its makes you happy then carry on as you are the only one who is
I think we are in for series of positive RNS.
We negotiated the previous deal when the bond was not sorted. That deal needed to be in place to get the bond through.
The provisional has done its job, now its time to see what GL can do about renegotiating.
Also we will own the plant at the end of the lease. The bond will be paid off quickly it is then Gravy from there.
You also have to ask why the Bond deal has the clause that allows repayment of the whole bond at 70% of Par. That is for preparation of selling all of the assets and a significant dividend return to share holders.
This is all without consideration of farm ins for the rest of the massive acreage of eastern Morocco or sidi moktar.
Plenty of news to come
LNG production isn't going to raise any funds for drilling. The income in its entirety (and more) is needed to pay off debt. That's WHY it's valued at -1p. Dilution to fund a drill at current market cap would be about 40%. Can you imagine the impact of another failure? Getting to LNG is sufficient only to keep SOU on life support. Its main hope of decent income is the Phase 2 pipeline development. For that it needs to find a farminee AND raise $90m, a daunting challenge. Given that the two year anniversary of Parsons' announcement of monetising the Tendrara assets is next Saturday and there isn't a whisper of any substantive discussions, that's not happening any time soon. The chances of SOU being worth anything are years away, and very far from guaranteed. Meanwhile, if Graham doesn't close out the LNG deal soon and get some advance money in from the gas purchaser, there's going to be a dilutive raise just to keep the lights on.
Is that an oasis or am I hallucinating? This share isn't going to be a tenner, nor a quid but it might hit a high of 10p in years to come..... you stick a drill bit in the ground after raising funds, by LNG production or dilution, and this baby will go North.
Oh man.
sundance4: "I hear you are a charitable man and have on many occasions helped many ,well all I can advise is leave people dream and don't worry there will never be the huge sums invested like before"
Dreams are good, hallucinations are harmful. It pains me to see people still getting suckered by hype merchants on here. The share price was back in the 1's today, down a third since the bond restructuring peak. The company's own valuation is that it is worth LESS THAN ZERO even if it manages to settle the tax bill at no cost and gets to LNG production.
Selling is always an option, I took it on the chin with a -95% hit. How else are you going to learn. A dog is a dog. Having said that everyone should do what they think best, gl.
and yet the MM's are forcing the price down, tree shake? seems a little odd
Good.
The offtaker will take a stake in here. Issue is only exploration will bring real value . But it is not for tomorrow.
Technology advances in every field, some more rapidly than others. I have no doubt, that previous 'failed' wells can become commercial. It's all about 'ifs'. If the proposed debt restructuring goes as we would wish, and if the LNG plant is a success, and if I am still alive, and if the company has, or has access to cash ( cue Marco n mates), and if The World still needs NG, then our License Areas may be worth a lot of money. ( cue JP for sale of assets).
In any event, for the long sufferers, selling shares is not an option. We have been seduced.
someone just got excited and bought 679,597 shares.
Mark Twain once wrote;
'I am not in favour of people who spell a word the same every time' - or words to that effect.
( or is that favor?)
It is a trait many Americans show, especially one D J Trump.