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ps. I don’t have any problem with your posts in respect of valuations, figures and the thoughts you provide. I’m too long in the tooth and choose to take all information posted on an anonymous BB with a pinch of salt, whether they are negative, positive, ramptastic or indeed factual (as far as anyone outside the company can know that is). What I don’t care for (and yes I know it takes two to tango), is the constant sniping - you said this, he said that, she said why the fxxk have you bought more shares in SOU (ok that last one is limited to MrsStM) etc. Anyway as st123 has now filtered you, we can hopefully move on. Sun is shining and I’ve almost finished work for today, so time to get outside and enjoy the sunshine.
Jesus ps.... give it a rest!! I dont see the value you're adding now, you're just playing the pantomime villain. From a investor indeep I like opinions from both sides of the fence but like I said, give it a rest..... the whole board appears to be about you and your opinion, which quite frankly I think everyone's getting bored of!!! If this post doesn't get recommended then I'm wrong and this forum what's more of the same.....GLA
StM: "Gents, isn’t it time to bite the bullet, shake hands and agree to disagree? "
Well, he claims to have filtered me, so I guess that's that. It wasn't so much a disagreement anyway, so much as accusations of "negativity". Turns out I wasn't negative *enough* as Phase 1 + debt turns out to be worth a negative amount. I'm surprised though that more people weren't taken aback by the 6.5p valuation for Phase 2. Have to say, even super-negative me found that truly shocking. Had hoped my sibling would see some worthwhile money back eventually, but never gonna happen now.
(Oh and, it's worse: SP Angel left a quarter of a billion shares and warrants out of their calculation -- 100m warrants for the bondholders and 160m shares for the gas purchaser -- presumably on the basis that those weren't issued/exercised yet. So knock another penny off the price. They also used a higher estimate for Horst gas production than we've seen before: 66 Mmcf/day for Phase 2 on top of 10 Mmcf/day for Phase 1).
19% up
Nice little rise the last couple of days, low n slow.... stops the traders
Good
ps has been filtered it’s the only way
they won't stop, they both need the attention.
filter is the only way.
Every double act needs a straight man.
Gents, St.Mary is right.
I did personally filter Ps (just my choice) as I felt the same points kept being regurgitated.
We are all free to comment but It does feel like this repeated battle is becoming a little incidious to the board.
Everyone has their right to open communication here of course but can you guys agree to disagree over this?
Enjoy the sun, your health, life in general and the fact we are getting through the global pandemic.
Peace my brothers
ST123: "Yes it was so blindingly obvious that you concluded a value of 6.5p similar to the SP Angel analysis that you then went and sold out for 1.2p but somehow I am the idiot."
Yes, you are the idiot (or paid ramper) since you refuse to understand the difference between Phase 1 and Phase2. Best of luck waiting for your 6.5p for the next four years ... *IF* SOU manage to go out and borrow $87 million in the next couple of months AS WELL AS find a farm-in partner for a 42% stake. I now know why you bought in at 4p a year ago on the Phase 1 news which we've just been told is worth ZERO --- you can't read.
PS “Anyway, as I said, this is not to blow any trumpets. It was all blindingly obvious from the RNS's that have been issued, to anyone willing to read them.“
Yes it was so blindingly obvious that you concluded a value of 6.5p similar to the SP Angel analysis that you then went and sold out for 1.2p but somehow I am the idiot.
St123 & PS. Gents, isn’t it time to bite the bullet, shake hands and agree to disagree? Go and do something productive and/or have fun. Life’s too short, so I’m going into the garden to feed and weed the lawn. Bliss.
ST123: "PS you gloat in the fact that the SP angel analysis uses the same variables as as yourself in determining a 6.5 p share price but that cannot be the case as that would have meant that you knew the SP would have achieved 6.5p"
Ok, ST123, now I KNOW you are either a paid ramper or a certifiable idiot. I specifically said that SP Angel used the same variables in calculating the PHASE ONE value of ZERO (indeed, slightly less). 6.5p is the value they attribute to PHASE TWO.
I couldn't possibly have estimated Phase 2 because there was no information in the public domain about the parameters of a deal to raise pipeline funds. In fact, if you look at my posts just from yesterday, you will see me agreeing with daveyboy71 (or at least not disagreeing) on a value of 17p for Phase 2. Boy was THAT wrong.
ST123: "that would have meant that you knew the SP would have achieved 6.5p so would have never have sold out for the 1.2p that you did."
Uh, why? Because if I had hung around for another five years and everything had gone perfectly I would have only lost 60% instead of 90% ? No thanks. If things come good for SOU it will be well advertised and there will be plenty of opportunity to buy back in. Right now I am delighted to be out.
ST123: "Like I said , I’m not predicting a price as there are too many variables here to predict with any accuracy but we know it will be well north of these current levels which is going to be the case."
So you've said. Except now you can't avoid looking like the idiot you are, because the people that SOU paid to promote the company ARE predicting a price, and it is dismal.
Share trader, ps2 is only trying to advise people through his expertise and opinions, the fact he thought 90pps was a good buy in price, 1p to 1.2 pps was a good sell price (and I'm now guessing the 6.5pps target price is a terrible thing haha) , the bondholders were going to claim the company and sound would be bust within six months are of no importance. His expert knowledge must be heard, not by me though I filtered him a while back. His posts as a little green filtered message are now a pleasure to read.
hydrogen, your comment about the price coming good inside the next 6-12 months is the most accurate prediction on this board and you havent bored us with paragraphs of pointless analysis. A case of less is more for sure.
PS you gloat in the fact that the SP angel analysis uses the same variables as as yourself in determining a 6.5 p share price but that cannot be the case as that would have meant that you knew the SP would have achieved 6.5p so would have never have sold out for the 1.2p that you did.
Like I said , I’m not predicting a price as there are too many variables here to predict with any accuracy but we know it will be well north of these current levels which is going to be the case.
Eric, going back to BM study on the horst, less compartmentalization than anticipated, approx 80 bcf recoverable per horizontal well. So any additional wells will be required at the latter part of the LNG project so cash in the bank and we will own the kit. Also all partners are responsible for their portion of project costs like for phase 2. Their is a plan GLA.
Davey
I think you should read the report.
Phase I will consist of utilising the existing well stock of TE-6 and TE-7 in addition to drilling
one new well when required to maintain the 10-year period of production.
I read it for a bit of amusement when I'm bored with work.
the board has been infested by idiots and manic depressives for ages now.
it's really not healthy to spend every day repeating the same old negative cr&p.
even if it were true why do it?
on their death bed I bet they don't think 'at least I spent a couple of years of my life warning people about sound energy'!
it's quite funny watching people's views change (sometimes subtly) as their position presumably changes
Eric, te7 will support LNG, read the report, additional well are needed for the pipeline and once FID is signed all partners are required to fund their percentage of development work.
Eric , where is the buyer?
Got to say that this report only confirms my belief that the best way to see anything like a medium term return is to sell the assets.
6.5 p value when we have pipeline in place. That’s 3-4 years away. And if everything goes to plan.
Another well to be drilled to support the LNG phase 1...who is paying for that.
The -1p value for phase 1 is a very conservative imho.
This is not to blow my own trumpet, but I do hope the SP Angel analysis will shut Sharetrader123 up for once and for all. Far from a valuation being "simply not possible due to having far too many variables", it includes precisely the same short list of variables as I did. Even my stab in the dark at running costs were pretty close. And the analysis EXACTLY agrees with my valuation of the LNG development -- which is that it's worth bugqer all to SOU apart from covering running costs and paying the bond. Actually it's slightly worse than that. On an NPV10 basis it's worth -1p per share (yes, that's NEGATIVE 1p). So, ST123, are you willing to man up and agree that my valuation was not "horrid negativity" but pretty much EXACTLY RIGHT.
Anyway, as I said, this is not to blow any trumpets. It was all blindingly obvious from the RNS's that have been issued, to anyone willing to read them. More concerning is the value they are putting on the Phase 2 pipeline development. Their NPV10 for that is 7.5p which, added to the LNG value of -1p gives their target of 6.5p/share. That's disappointingly low, in fact I would regretfully say it's pretty savage! Those who were basing estimates on SOU owning 47% of $2.4 bn worth of gas, or on a former SOU exec declaring the share price to be "underpinned at 27p" will be bitterly disappointed.
They give some details of the project economics. SOU would take on $87m of debt and give away an additional 42% of its equity. I'm guessing it's pretty speculative as we haven't been told about any advanced Phase 2 negotiations, but it's not a good look. It's also looks quite aggressive as it assumes LNG will be flowing next year and -- judging from the projected revenue for 2023 -- that the pipeline will be not only completed but earning substantial revenue by that year.
Any higher future potential value that SP Angel attribute to SOU is therefore all down to exploration prospects. They give some details, but here is not the place to delve into that.