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WL, I feel a lot more comfortable with an engineer Graham in charge than the 2nd rate bean counter JP, he has no history in all of his AIM adventures of long term financial gain for investors. These deals dovetail in to the end of March and the money runs out when the bond is due in July, place your bets.
Again hope you're right daveyboy71. No point me selling now either. My holdings are only worth a couple thousand at the current price, which I'd rather keep than lose obviously, but I also have a feeling that everything will be sorted out and Sound's prospects will improve dramatically the moment I sell. So I'm not prepared to risk missing out on that either! We're long overdue some good news. Amazing to think that the last bit of truly good news (which significantly boosted the share price) landed when David Cameron was Prime Minister and Barack Obama was President. GLA.
I doubt if any deal could be struck with ogif directly as all shareholders have to be treated equally and don't forget Mohammed is ex ogif, I'm not saying it's going to be easy but keeping sound on to develop tendrara is the quickest route to cash flow, te6 and 7 can go straight into production, basically plug and play with LNG kit but agree that any future exploration of tendrara will need bigger pockets if they want it doing in a sub 5 year time line. That's why I can't see phase 2 pipeline happening until we get a couple of tcfs under our belt. All I know is if I sell now the project will go ahead.
Woundlick I agree , but it’s only four weeks left now so let’s see Which way it goes . I can honestly say this has burned me and if it goes down it will bring it to a conclusion
I also think how this ends will be interesting and the ramifications quite major for lots here ... sad times or maybe not !!!
Hope you're right daveyboy71. I don't really know how much influence OGIF have over day to day/month to month running of Sound (if any) or if they have any preference for Sound to continue as the developer for Tendrara. If I was a bond holder who wanted to maxmise my own profits, I'd try and strike a deal with OGIF whereby they retain their 20% (or even increase to 25%), the new operator could then be offered a controlling 51%, the 10% owned by institutions and directors would remain unchanged (although the actual Directorship would obviously change unless a new operator wanted to keep GL and the team), leaving the bond holders with 14% - and of course the current retail Sound holders (us) with 0%.
If the bond holders have been holding talks with OGIF and Schlumberger about bringing in new developers to replace Sound, it wouldn't be very difficult to make a compelling case that it would be in all of their best interests given Sound's track record of failure over the past 5 years. So while GL might be able to persuade these other stake holders that Sound are now in the best position to see through development of the Tendrara asset, I think the chances of that happening are fairly slim. The future of Tendrara is probably very bright, very profitable. Unfortunately those profits will likely be realised without Sound and its current retail shareholders. Obviously not everyone has lost out. JP has enjoyed huge profits, set for life and all that now. That's his reward for finding a legal way to commit theft and fraud, or at least a way which carries enough legal ambiguity to ensure he will probably never be convicted for the crimes he has committed.
You are forgetting ogif is tied in as a shareholder and then there's Schlumberger who still own their percentage of the field, it's not that easy to drop us out of the equation and carry on without us. I'm hopeful or some sort of financial reward from this fiasco which JP dropped us in.
Are those deals not just 'in principle' at the moment? Nothing binding with penalties for failing to see them through to fruition? If so, it wouldn't be a waste of time to get those agreements in place for whenever the bond holders are ready to dispense of the retail share holders, and either continue with those deals (assuming they can take over that as well as the assets) or at least quickly replicate the deal(s) with new developers. Italfluids won't care if it's Sound or another company - especially if the bond holders can bring in a developer with actual production experience. With all the agreements in place, everything raring to go it seems, and all that is needed is for the bond to be restructured...... Seems to me that's the point. Why restructure a bond keeping over a billion shares in issue when you can just dispense with them and keep an enormous controlling interest for yourself?
As I say I hope I'm wrong, maybe we'll get to the 11th hour and the bond holders will decide they don't want to dispense with us retail share holders and would rather share all the profits with us instead despite no legal requirement to do so. I'll be very grateful to the bond holders if that's what they decide.
The question you have to ask is why would the gas purchaser and italfluids spend time and money to negotiate heads of terms for phase 1 if they thought it would be a complete waste of time?? He is getting his ducks in a row (sorry for the pun) to get either the bond holders on side or negotiate funding from another source, maybe ogif or another Moroccan financial entity to pay off Marco and his buddies.
If the bondholders are playing hardball Graham should have known better than to offer them a derisory 2% back in October. And, even if he made a stupid mistake, two and a half months is plenty of time to come up with an alternative. We know he's not coming from a position of strength but the deathly silence is frustrating.
May not be Graham's fault. Graham could be making every effort, going above and beyond the responsibilities featured in his job description, we just don't know what he's doing exactly which is part of the problem you highlight ps200306. But no matter what he does everything could ultimately be in vain. It may be impossible for him to save the company because the other parties (bond holders) might simply want the company the fail so they can claim the assets for themselves.
I'm guessing the most persuasive sales person in the world would not be able to convince you to invest money into, say, a company run by JP these days. You'd simply refuse and wait for a better opportunity to arise because you'd see that company as a lost cause in it's present state. My fear is that the bond holders are looking upon Sound with a similar attitude, can't wait for us to fold, then things will start rapidly progressing in my opinion around Tendrara with new developers. If they wanted to save Sound and were acting in genuine good faith, a deal to extend the bond should be very straight forward. There is a reason why there has been next to no progress - I'm guessing because certain parties don't want progress.
Sorry to be so pessimistic, but the good news is that I've been wrong about almost everything Sound related since late 2016 and the beginning of the decline. Wrong to trust JP, wrong to believe we had a super giant field on our hands, wrong to dismiss the tumbling share price, wrong to think Sidi is 'plug and play', wrong to believe a recovery will be immanent, wrong to believe JP when he told us he could 'sell the company tomorrow', and many, many more. I know I'm not the only one to have made these mistakes. They say misery loves company but here's hoping our collective fortunes do a 180 for the first time in 5 years. GLA.
What is Graham actually doing? He RNS'd a bond restructuring proposal on October 28th. It took two weeks to hold a bondholder meeting which was adjourned due to lack of a quorum. Then it took a further month to reconvene and reject the proposal. Two and a half months has elapsed since then without a peep from Graham. SOU is running out of road. Even if Graham came up with a new plan that could fly, we don't have another six weeks to wait for it to be proposed and adopted. And we would still need the gas purchaser agreement to be instantly signed, sealed, and delivered to get some money in the kitty. The silence is deafening... apart from the clock which is ticking louder and louder. The next sound you hear will be SOU getting flushed down the toilet. SHOW US THE MONEY, GRAHAM!
Yes agree davey.
There has been no real change to the size of the asset since the last broker note that valued the Horst alone at over 10p a share I seem to remember.
If you add in the exploration upside and Sidi then the new note must still value is far north of where we currently are.
Graham aluded to new broker valuation notes being issued soon, I assume this will happen once we get the deal with italfluid and the bond sorted. The tax issue will drag on for sometime and will probably result in much reduced bill or nothing to pay.
Dayey, makes sense what you say. the issue is can we get there
Med, we went from 5p to a quid on 2 field appraisal wells and a lot of bull s h it, once we get phase 1 LNG into production and we go for a low risk drilling campaign near te2 and sbk fields we should rerate to full asset value.
davey, 18p is a dream
Closest thing I have seen to legalised theft... legal but....
JP spouted £1 per TCF in the ground which equates to 60p ish, another lie and misrepresentation of the asset value which he should be investigated for, then when JJ joined it dropped to 27p per share for the Horst which took a lot of investors by surprise. Now add in dilution we could be looking at around 18p per share if we can unlock the asset and get gas to market.
Can any one remember remind us why the share was suppose to be under pinned at 40. Pence ?
A total crook.. He should be hung.
Diverse, I guess he has to come out of the woodwork sometime. COVID-19 gave James Parsons the opportunity to keep his head down.
I would love to give that thing a kiss, and one day I will believe me, a Glasgow kiss, see you soon Parsons