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Quady, cheer us up on a Friday afternoon, some bright thoughts.
I'll get the gloom out the way: I think we are heading to 19p, where we settled for most of 2018. We got used to 25p as the stable price, but that is clearly gone for the time being. I don't think we'll fall below 19p though. It seems to be our natural seabed.
OK, there's the bad news.
Now, if you would, paint me a picture of what happens now - the fundraise, the building of infrastructure, the actual mining, all leading to profits and dividends in the timescale you predict. I'm not going to shoot it down, I'd genuinely like to hear, in your words (not what "the company has told us") the best case scenario if we go down your route.
Sean
Quady, I will obviously have to spell it out to you.
You said that NC said they were not sellers and comfortable with their holding in Solgold, in the last year. RK proved to you that it was said in August 2020, so two years ago. Presumably you still believe what was said two years ago, holds good.
You also don't understand the difference between renumerate (essentially re-counting, but not really a proper word at all) and remunerate (payment for work done). You can hide behind mild dyslexia if you choose, but most dyslexics would choose spell and grammar check if only to reduce the ridicule.
NC are sellers of Solgold at the first sign of a corporate buyer. IMO.
redknight was deramping this company so hard last week. All of a sudden he is bullish again. What a twit
The way you lot go on about Quady and let Redknight get away with using words like moron and mentioning Oh I have friends on here unlike you( ok he may be joking but i don't think so), I don't know anyone on this board but have I have been reading it for over a year now and I think poor Quady is unfairly treated. Redknight come across as a pompous pr... , horrible horrible person and the kind of human I would hate to ever have any contact with.
As much as I hope Quady is wrong (and we get a bid ASAP) he sticks to his guns and he gives a better argument then some of the made up stories from CD( Fortissimo) and others.
As for Newcrest likely to sell, surely they won't want to take a loss on their investment? They might not add but I can't see them just giving their shares away cheaply to BHP.
I agree with nearly everything Matherfngers says just wait for a RNS for factual news rather than trying to spin every little bit of news into a bid scenario.
I had to laugh at 2 days ago the TSX was down and people rightly said it doesn't matter and won't affect the opening the next day but then yesterday when it was up 25% people started posting it was positive and we could see a boost in the share price today or some news.
Anyway good luck to all who is invested ( i'm not sure who actually is) and have a great weekend, I'm going to try and stop reading this message board as it's just a pure waste of my time. If anything in the past it's cost me money and when I was thinking of selling i didn't because of FOMO after reading the drivel here :)
p.s. all we need down are some 1 trades for bubble to wet himself again :)
Well said Fortissimo - a directors duty is to all shareholders not just the biggest
Green boxes !
Massive Quay must about getting folk's backs up.
You can tell it's Friday.............
Lot of green stripes...the moron has been removed, so let me guess who it is and what his favourite subject is...?
Does he understand the filter button...?
"by bringing in select JV partners."
Yes but Darryl... you've been saying this (or SOLG has) for the last 2 years and you've delivered zero partner deals. Either they don't want a slice of the most sought after region in South America or it's you guys failing to follow through with the deals presented to you??
I believe there's bags of interest but for some reason you guys are dragging your feet... the question is why?? Could it be because there's a big shareholder (or two) that doesn't want to see these concessions going to other companies??
About time the majority of shareholders were looked after the obstructive and destructive pair be shown the door.
Redknight sorry when I named you Bobo the clown. I got it so right.
You haven't got me on filter. Everyone knows that.
Also you take the Mickey because I am mildly dyslexic.
What a nice chap you must be apart from a fantasist.
Early start to the weekend, don't know why you bother, everyone just puts you straight on filter and you talk to yourself.
Okay remember everyone, Redknight has changed tactics again. He says bid by Christmas and Solgold will not go to production.
I am a patient type of fella. I guess I will get my apology after Christmas.
Aha...Slug is back...
Anyhow...Quady obviously thinks he can win sympathy by posting rot about me in the blind belief that I don't know what he is saying because he's filtered...
So...to disabuse you Quady...I have friends on here (unlike you...ouch...sorry Quady mate, that was 'harsh but fair')..
To be crystal clear:
The detailed stuff that I have just posted from the LatAm Report is VERBATIM (is that a word you understand Quady mate...?)
I have offered no opinion.
However, my position could not be more clear from my snippet on Valuestone...so let me put it in Caps to make it easy for you, Quady my old mucker...
CASCABEL WILL NOT BE TAKEN TO PRODUCTION BY SOLGOLD
And for those that take the time and tolerable to read my posts (thank you by the way)...my OPINION is that Solgold will be bid for "by Christmas at the latest."
So I'm really genuinely sorry Quady m y long time buddy, but there will be no apology...
You'll get over it...bye for now...
Jerry that doesn't even make sense.
If you are on about JV of tenements that has been talked about since 2018.
The main part is we intend to become a producer by bringing cascabel to production. That has been talked about since 2015.
Even you who tries to warp everything I say, surely cannot deny this.
Actually what am I talking about of course your find a way.
I see that Quady, who likes to 'renumerate', has just renumerated two years ago to 'within the last year'.
With such deception and no remorse, a new career in politics beckons.
So Redknight has moved from a position of saying I didn't know what I was talking about, to completely agreeing with me. And insulting me along the way.
I have not changed my position, as I still believe that taking Cascabel to production is the most likely outcome for Solgold.
I don't suppose for one minute he will apologize to me.
This bit is particularly interesting for a couple of reasons...
Putting together a bankable feasibility study by the end of 2023 is entirely in our hands, so we know the market will judge us on our ability to deliver that. “Our number one priority is Cascabel and the second is Porvenir”, says Cuzzubbo. “Cascabel will generate $1.3billion of free cashflow per annum with copper at a conservative price of $3.60 per lb, so it can definitely berth a multi-asset operation. We would like Porvenir to be open cut, so it could be up and running earlier than Cascabel and get cash flowing.”
And...
“We will run out of copper in the second half of the decade”, says Darryl Cuz- zubbo, CEO of SolGold, a London-list- ed junior that is developing Cascabel, one of the world’s largest new copper projects. “Wood Mackenzie estimates more than a five million tonne shortfall in mined copper supply by 2030. To give you some idea that would require building at least five more operations like Escondida – the world’s largest copper mine – by the end of the dec- ade. We haven’t even found five mines like that, never mind built them.”
Governments and companies have made lots of bold carbon reduction commitments in recent years. The trou- ble is that these pledges haven’t been backed up by concrete steps to increase metals supply. “Lots of countries have made commitments to become net carbon zero, which they can’t do without having a reliable source of copper”, says Cuzzubbo. “Events in recent years have demonstrated the importance of having secure supply chains, which will place even more of a premium on copper. I actually think that Wood Mac- kenzie’s estimate is conservative. If you look at climate change the anxiety and political pressure to complete the en- ergy transition will increase with every extreme climate event. When you look at how rapidly attitudes have changed over the last twenty years, you can im- agine how it will be by 2030.”
There's also an interesting article on financing these major projects...here is the link to the 3rd Qtr issue of LatAm Investor..
https://latam-investor.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LatAm-INVESTOR-Q3-2022.pdf
But lets let Wood McKenzie have the final say...
"According to Wood Mackenzie, annual capex on mining projects for energy transition metals peaked at $120billion in 2012 and is currently less than half of that. Over the next decade investment in new future-facing commodities will have to consistently exceed that $120billion figure if the mining industry is to provide the metals needed for the energy transition. The range of innova- tive mining finance solutions discussed in this article, will help that happen. They also provide new ways for inves- tors to gain exposure to the coming clean metal super-cycle."
Cascabel will generate 1.3 billion a year in free cash flow at 3.60 per pound of copper.
And people here say we can't raise 2.7 billion dollars.
Really, and I am the one that is incorrect. Not only can we raise the cash, but we will be paying a dividend in the second year of production, if not sooner.
And...
New projects
Retroactively cleaning up existing mega mines is vital to reducing min- ing’s GHG emissions. However, given the world will need to rapidly increase copper production, any new mines also have to be low emitters. Darryl Cuz- zubbo, CEO of SolGold, a London-list- ed junior that is developing Cascabel, one of the world’s largest new copper projects, believes that new jurisdictions like Ecuador have an advantage in this new era of low-carbon mining.
“Ecuador can be a leader in sustaina- ble mining but it won’t be easy. There are challenges in the country. But I al- ways think back two decades, to when BHP Billiton built one of the world’s most technically-advanced aluminium smelters in war-torn Mozambique. The country had just emerged from years of civil war and had practically none of the relevant skill sets. But Billiton, as it was known back then, worked with the locals to create this world-class opera- tion. Indeed, sometimes having a fresh jurisdiction, with none of the bad prac- tices of older mining, can be an advan- tage.”
It’s not just new jurisdictions that have the advantage. Mining projects being designed now, tend to have a much lower carbon footprint than projects 20 years ago. “We believe we can make Cascabel the lowest carbon intensity copper mine ever built”, says Cuzzub- bo. “It will be connected to hydro pow- er, while the concentrate will be sent by pipeline downhill. The water will be self-contained to avoid contamina- tion. We will have a heavy bias towards electric vehicles underground, which will further reduce emissions. These facts will help us bring NGOs onboard. Indeed, it already helps that we have a great example of responsible mining in Ecuador with Lundin Gold.”
Large new projects, like Cascabel, that can deliver globally-significant amounts of low-carbon copper are needed to fight climate change. The trouble is that in the last ten years, community protests and unclear govern- ment rules have made it harder to build new mines across the world. Meanwhile falling copper grades, mean operations are likely to use more energy per lb of copper produced.
Cascabel – Key Milestones
We look at the timeframes for Ecuador’s most-important copper project...
“In the medium term there are three “We would be doing all of this in par- ble feasibility study by the end of 2023
or four projects that will probably be developed”, says Valdivieso. “La Plata, Wartintza, Cangrejos and El Domo all look like they will be built in the next few years.” But for Ecuador to truly play a role in the global energy transition, and for mining to create the type of long-last- ing wealth that the country’s other booms failed to do, massive projects like Cascabel need to be developed.
“Cascabel is a tier one project based on deliverable assumptions”, says Cuzzub- bo. “A big advance was the recent pub- lication of the pre-feasibility study. That allows us to move into the next phase of the definitive feasibility study, which will allow us to get funding for the $2.7bil- lion of start-up capital.”
SolGold expect to have a bankable fea- sibility study for Cascabel by the end of 2023, says Cuzzubbo. “At a stretch we aim for environmental approvals by the end of 2024 – of course that timeframe is determined more by public consultation and the approval process than by us. If we meet those goals then we would start construction by early 2025 and start pro- ducing by late 2028.
“We would be doing all of this in parallel, so we will be looking for funding and getting the engineering work in the background. Then as soon as we have the permits, we are ready to pull the trig- ger on funding and construction. We will start early works, such as the mine shaft and decline, by the end of 2023. That work has two advantages: it will allow
us to access the ore body, so that we can understand it better and de-risk the project; it also takes 12 months off the
critical path. Putting together a bankable feasibility study by the end of 2023 is entirely in our hands, so we know the market will judge us on our ability to deliver that. “Our number one priority is Cascabel and the second is Porvenir”, says Cuzzubbo. “Cascabel will generate $1.3billion of free cashflow per annum with copper at a conservative price of $3.60 per lb, so it can definitely berth a multi-asset operation. We would like Porvenir to be open cut, so it could be up and running earlier than Cascabel and get cash flowing.”
Ecuador’s most important copper pro- ject, Cascabel, is being developed by SolGold (LON: SOLG). “We have 76 concessions, more than anyone else in Ecuador”, says SolGold CEO, Darryl Cuzzubbo. “That’s because we saw the opportunity ten years ago, before the rest of the industry. We see Ecuador as the next copper frontier. Our number one priority is Cascabel and the sec- ond is Porvenir. We opened up a num- ber of concessions to joint venture and
are currently negotiating with majors with a view to them buying into these projects. We want to grow SolGold on a probabilistic net present value basis. So that will allow other organisations to buy into our concessions and meet the concession commitments.
“Clearly, we can’t complete all 76 con- cessions on our own so we are going through a prioritisation process, with a sombre view on our capability and where we need to focus. We know that we can grow our company more quick- ly by bringing in select JV partners.”
And...
Ecuador needs companies from every part of the mining value chain to pro- duce a project pipeline and turn them into mines. For investors it provides a wide range of ways to play the story.
Investors “need to distinguish between larger mining companies and juniors”, says Alain Bureau, the CEO of Atico Mining, which is developing La Plata, a medium-sized copper-gold deposit that is at the forefront of the second generation of Ecuadorian mines. “With a major, investors are normally looking for long-term returns. In those com- panies, investors can ride out a few bumps because they have faith the company’s assets will deliver returns over the medium to long-term. When people invest in a junior company it’s because they want to be there when the share price pops. Investors in jun- iors are more conscious about timing because they know it’s about getting into a company just before it develops a project. If they time it right, the share price can multiply by ten times. When you invest in a junior you look at three things: the management track record, the project’s potential and the jurisdic-
tion.”
Ans...
Some on here seem to forget the history between NCM and BHP. An article from 4 years ago hits it home.
Nothing has changed guys apart from the fact we are now firmly in the end game. NCM wanted us cheap. BHP then came in to scupper NCM's plans and Mather was content with that at the time but knew having two big boys was better than having one.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2018/09/05/bhp-returns-to-solgold/
Meanwhile in case you missed it, in the latest issue of Latam Investor:
"“Once we accept that we need much more copper, the next question is: where will it come from?”, says Dar- ryl Cuzzubbo, CEO of SolGold (LON: SOLG) a London-listed junior that is developing Ecuador’s largest copper project, Cascabel. “Ecuador is the most plausible option. It sits on the Ande- an copper belt, with similar geology to Chile and Peru and it doesn’t make sense that copper and gold stops at the border. Twenty or 30 years from now Ecuador will have mines of a similar scale and intensity that we see in Peru and Chile today. Those two countries supply more than 40% of the world’s copper today, so you can see what a key role Ecuador will play in the energy transition. Once you accept that, then you look at individual companies. Sol-
Gold has the most concessions in the country and the most advanced mega project. So, we are part of the global
The regional political situation makes Ecuador look very positive by comparison but it needs to seize on that timing and create investable projects
Rafael Valdivieso, Partner at Robalino Law
copper supply story.”
SolGold was an early mover in Ecuador but since then a string of juniors and majors have followed suit. One major that has set up shop in the country is Australia’s Han**** Prospecting, one of the largest private miners in the world. Carlos de Miguel III, the CEO of Han****’s fully-owned Ecuadorian subsidiary, Hanrine Exploration, ex- plains why the firm believes in Ecua- dor. “I had seen the potential of Ecua- dorian mining back in 2015, when the government first started talking about opening up the mining registry for auc- tions. We decided to conduct a country study, so that we would be ready for the auctions in 2017. We went as high as 4,400 metres and as low as 120 metres
underground, looking at a number of projects. Many of them were too small for us, as Han**** is looking for tier 1 copper projects with a high-grade and 35 years of mine life, but those small projects gave us important geological information. We brought over a well- known geologist from Australia and completed a two-year due diligence in the country. In Australia, Han**** pro- duces 85 million tonnes of iron ore a year but here our focus will be copper.”
And...
LunchMoney NCM have announced many times over the years that they are not selling their stake in Solgold, and wish to increase it. They don't need to state it every week.