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Hi addicknt - yes I think it seems unlikely that Solg will take Alpala to production all by itself. And I'm sure another equity raise is imminent. But at least between the last substantive raise and the next one, Solg hasn't been diluted by 20% in between, isn't that what a raise for $100m instead of the FNV deal last year would have amounted to? Also with the FNV deal they are diluting Alpala but not everything else, which gave the company time to keep working on everything else and get Porvenir to the brink of an MRE. Maybe I'm thinking about this incorrectly but a substantial Solg equity raise last year would have diluted all of our shares of the whole portfolio wouldn't it?
rcgl, if you believe, as I do, that we will not run with this independently, then an equity raise is inevitable. Whatever the circumstances I see us ending up owning a minority of Cascabel or none of it - in other words, we will sell it. There are no circumstances I can envisage whereby the current equity structure will pertain all the way to production.
And whilst I agree with you in some senses about the 'shot across the bow', we all know what the result of that was. Some may not have liked the consequences, others were perfectly happy. I wonder how NM sees it now? Does he think he made a mistake he now regrets, or is he happy with his decision?
Good morning all, rcgl2's post about sums up the situation.
We have spent time defending.
We have done a good job, and no bids have come forward, as some people predicted.
So the way forward is to listen to the company.
So what has changed.
Well apart from the redesign and late PFS, nothing.
We are continuing to bring Alpala to production.
We have ruled out JV's for the 14 sites we are developing. ( Including Alpala )
We are going to JV on 20 tenements.
We are going to bring Alpala to production cheaper and faster. ( 2028 is a full block cave operation, not the production date )
We await the PFS at the end of the year and the plan for financing.
We start construction in 2022.
Yes we have had some setbacks, but as I have always said engineering is about continuous improvement, and we carry on.
Good luck everybody, traders and LTH's.
Well, has the PFS been badly managed? You could say yes very because they were clearly being extremely over ambitious and seemed to be prioritising just getting it built quickly as the biggest block cave possible rather than trying to optimise it for cost and efficiency - see KM's comment that the old design was basically an inverted open pit. They should have got the expertise of people like KM onboard much earlier and the old management showed their inexperience there. But the management has now been changed.
On financing though, what was the alternative? What would have made our biggest shareholders the happiest? A large equity raise heavily subscribed by BHP and NCM instead of the FNV deal. And what would they all be discussing right now in terms of future funding needs that are rapidly approaching? Another substantial equity raise, heavily subscribed by BHP and NCM? What percentages of the company would those two combined be left with by the end of this year if management had done everything according to their wishes? Just because they each took 13% stakes doesn't mean Solg has to then bend over and offer itself to them, so they can keep increasing their stakes until they gain control and carve the whole lot up between them, squeezing the rest of us out for a fairly low amount. I don't think putting a few shots across their bows to let them know Solg won't come cheap was a bad strategy per se.
tucson, as each day passes we are getting closer to positive news. Put your worries to one side and focus on the big picture. A good start is to read the article RK posted yesterday...if you haven't already done so.
if worried then why worry - save yourself the worry and move on - no share is worth losing sleep over..........
r's
bn.c
monetisation - aye
ahem - PFS Q4 2021 - for these numbers
so a wee while to wait for those.........
r's
bn.c
We need to see monetisation not dilution or at leas the timescales to monetisation reduced. Give the market a juicy bone to suck on, if you'll pardon the rather risque reference
When you read the Mining Journal article in its entirety, it's difficult to understand why our share price is where it is.
The only issue I have with it is the observation that the Franco deal may make us 'less attractive' in the eyes of some bidders. Having to repay the $100m, which is what a bidder would want to do, is absolute peanuts in the context of the value of our assets and in BHP's case, represents very little of their free cash flow - but they would take it into account when valuing the business.
Ditto, thanks for that info Red
Thanks Red.
Z
Thanks for posting RK - very interesting.
BNC,thanks for info :-)
https://www.mining-journal.com/digital_assets/1b1a9d1f-6ebb-42ef-86f7-79fec83f3756/MJ-Copper-Outlook-Supplement_13-04-21_HR_v05.pdf
"In its 2018 report, Copper M&A: The Cupboard is Nearly Bare, RFC Ambrian concluded that of 55 development projects around the world only 21 had the potential to involve a third party and just five had a high possibility of being subject to a transaction. A year ago the bank published an update and observed that there were now 64 development projects, yet still just five with a high possibility of being subject to a transaction.
The five are: Cascabel, Los Helados, Vizcachitas, Casino and Santo Tomas."
"Stimulus is also coming from an unexpected direction in the shape of gold producers since Barrick Gold president and CEO Mark Bristow spoke about the company needing to increase its exposure to copper."
"Ecuador has increasingly taken the copper exploration spotlight in recent years.
The 2013 Alpala discovery by SolGold at Cascabel reinvigorated interest, leading to BHP and Newcrest Mining investing in the company"
"Concessions are awarded during certain windows via a Swiss auction system. The last auction was in 2017 and another is due this year, although it will depend upon the results of the current presidential elections. SolGold took advantage of its early presence to be one of the winners during the last round, picking up concessions throughout the country."
Here u go bublÉ
"Ingo Hofmaier, MA, CFA
• 3rd+
Exec GM - BD, Corporate & Project Finance at SolGold Plc
9h • 9 hours ago
Inventories of copper and zinc remain at low levels, with falling TC/RC highlighting smelters’ appetite for more, supporting commodity prices
#copper #gold"
r's
bn.c
“We are just passing your information to the Chinese and Russian Stazi..”
GLA
Red,cant get link,what does it say?
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6790527770914033664/
orthern
The great man in question had to beg for cigarettes and died shortly after saying that.
Don't worry about us lths were here for the big rewards imho
this seems to me like nothing more than people booking a great (up to 50%) profit over the last few weeks, dependant on when they bought in. There is absolutely nothing wrong with trading this share when you think you can. Of course anyone that does, may be caught out if a decent RNS drops, but that is the game we all play. Trading a chunk of a holding can be a great way to further reduce an average price, whilst keeping skin in the game, for that long awaited golden RNS.
The idea that some post on this board, that its somehow a failure of support, or traitorous to long term holders to trade the share is just childish. There is nothing wrong with taking some money off the table every now and again, especially if you accept its almost predictable that this share will begin its regular decent on any brief pause in news.
as a great man once said
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
Jezzo, the problem that people who get 'bored' will have is that the company has a habit of being pretty good at keeping things quiet and springing surprises (both good and bad).
We know Porvenir is due in a couple of months, but we don't know exactly when. And a jv or two could be announced at any time. If punters aren't holding, they'll miss the boat.
Topped up another £1,000 worth just now, thank you sellers :)
right at support on 100 day which is what I was looking for to add. Healthy pullback!
I really don't think the shareprice is undermined by those who "bore'em at the forum."