We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
BBG, it's done all the time. A deal would be agreed and announced, followed by an acceptance period (assuming its for the entire issued share capital). It would come with a recommendation from the board and a commitment from those directors that they'll be accepting the offer.
Of course, during the Offer Period, anyone can still bid and the directors, unless they've given irrevocable undertakings, can change their minds. However, any third party bidder will have to take into account the percentage of shares owned by those parties who've agreed to the deal as to whether it's worth their while. If it's BHP bidding and let's say NCM have accepted, as well as NM, it's game over.
As for the director recommendation, they would be duty bound to test out the market via our advisors, as to whether there is any serious interest from other third parties. My view is that unless BHP had signalled they were no longer interested, any potential bidder would consider it a waste of time and money.
Addicnt - how will an agreed deal be defined / announced without some form competitive auction process and or allowing all shareholders to consider whether the terms are deemed acceptable?
DBW, I agree. But as I've said repeatedly, I don't think we'll end up in a bidding process (I hope we do, but I just can't see it at the moment). I'm convinced it will be an agreed deal of some form.
Addinct I just can’t see a cheap offer being successful now …. The Chinese and the likes of Barrick simply won’t sit by and watch this go for peanuts, even if BHP are eventually triumphant…. They’re much better off opening with a half sensible offer…..and so are we :)
It's my belief that the charm offensive launched by the company after the agm defeat was aimed at preventing a cheap offer, but it came at the expense of Mather's job, a promise not to seek any more funding from Franco/others and a demand that we repair the fractured relationship with CGP. From our point of view I suspect we extracted a commitment to support the next funding round and to give the company space to move towards the pfs. I have no idea how the shareholders feel about the inability of the company to fill the roles of CEO and CFO - they either don't care because they don't believe it's necessary or, they are not happy, which may explain the CG roadshow.
As far as the big picture is concerned the main dynamic remains - BHP are not here, and neither did they participate in the last funding round, simply to hold a minority stake.
ToS yep their over promising and failure to deliver in the past has been shocking. ….. Small signs of hope though recently…. Rio drilling underway ahead of stated schedule and Tandayama MRE delivered as they said ….. let’s hope this is a sign of things to come. A lot to happen in a short space of time that will completely change the landscape here
Strongly agree DBW
DBW. Re it not coming to pass.... I still agree. However, I’d say a year ago I was 90% certain, it’s now probably 75%......and falling by the month.
The majors should... in my view.... be keen to prevent any more Franco Nevada type deals diluting their potential future margins. Yet other than moaning a lot, and forcing NM into the background via shareholder revolt, they’ve done little to prevent it.
DBW fair point.... but anything designed to get Solg appear to make progress to any kind of plan gets my approval. In truth, their ability to meet any kind of self declared milestone has been shocking, progress to their own published plans has been glacial, and its constantly had a negative impact on SP.
Those quick enough catch the bird early imho gl,
ToS …. It won’t come to pass
Which begs the question… why push for us to get on with the PFS via the “open letter “?
I think it’s correct to assume the majors don’t really care too much about the Solg PFS. So, unfortunately I don’t see it’s publication as firing any starting gun, nor moving the SP much.
My belief was that the majors were awaiting elections, and would seek relationships and reassurances from the victorious candidate/government on extraction policy etc. before committing. Now that the election has long passed, and nothing has emerged, seems I was wrong. Longer this goes on, more it seems that the Quady view is the most likely outcome. It would not be my preferred outcome, and it wasn’t what I initially invested for, however if it comes to pass, I’m prepared to wait.
I asked Warren Irving whether a bid from a major would arrive before the Alpala PFS. We occasionally discuss it here and tend to think that the PFS may be the line in the sand beyond which the buyers will finally open up their wallets.
But Warren's very clear view (as usual) is that the majors don't care about a Junior's PFS, they will base their views on their own models, so the potential bids are not related to the "official" PFS.
So I suppose the real questions are:
1) Do BHP and Newcrest and everyone other interested majors have access to the raw information to feed their own models or is SOLG keeping that close to their chest;
2) If instead the majors have the relevant information, why haven't they bid yet? Are they all waiting to see who makes the first move?