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Afternoon Lunch. The last time we had 105p TP was in December. All the notes this year have 101p. 27th January note spells it out. Reduction is cos they moved production date to 2029.
Bubble, you're not wrong. This stock is chronically undervalued and not just by a small amount. It's as if the market simply don't "get" what we're sitting on.
Undervalued ............strong buy
Who knows Lunchmoney - they work in mysterious ways......................
Z
Lunch Money yes I agree there based on recent results am guessing they didn't know so would maybe have to revise their figures
Valuation: GBp101/sh target price implies 225% upside
While we await the filing of the NI 43-101 technical report for the Alpala PFS,
due in ~10 days, we maintain our current valuation based on a 30Mtpa block
cave operation with an 8% WACC, US$8,500/t copper price and US$1,850/oz
gold price. This generates a ~US$4.23bn NPV on H&Pe and provides a
~US$2.85bn contribution to our SOTP (based on 85% ownership and 0.8x target
P/NPV). We add US$150m for SolGold’s vast regional portfolio and adjust for
net cash and outstanding options and warrants, to derive a GBp101/sh target,
implying 225% upside. On a like-for-like basis using the PFS assumptions of
US$7,934/t Cu and US$1,700/oz Au, our model implies a ~US$3.5bn NPV,
exceeding the ~US$2.9bn PFS NPV, with a similar IRR (21% H&Pe vs 19.3%
PFS). This gap is largely explained by the lower throughput and slightly higher
capital intensity, partially offset by better grades, as outlined in the PFS press
release on 20th April.
end
Z
TAM system remains open; Moran target adjacent to Alpala also mineralised
The full size and tenor of the TAM system has not yet been tested, with
mineralisation open to the south and east and at depth. Mineral Resources
potentially mineable by underground bulk mining methods comprise 172Mt @
0.35% CuEq and SolGold flag a higher-grade core contained within. Meanwhile,
upon completion of phased drilling at TAM the rigs have turned to Moran,
~1.5km from Alpala camp (see pg. 2), where exploration drilling of hole MOD22-001 is at a current depth of 414.7m. The hole continues intersect bornite and
visible chalcopyrite copper sulphide mineralisation from 19.1m to its current
depth. Whilst early stage, results would further demonstrate the size and scale of
the Cascabel property.
PFS NI43-101 expected shortly; optimisations later this year and DFS H2 CY23
Additional optimisations are being progressed for a PFS Addendum planned for
completion in H2 CY22 and the Cascabel project DFS is expected in H2 CY23.
These could include incorporation of TAM amongst other initiatives. Alpala
currently boasts an M&I Resource of 2,663Mt @ 0.53% CuEq with 9.9Mt Cu,
21.7Moz Au and 92.2Moz Ag of contained metal and combined with TAM makes
Cascabel currently the largest (and one of the most advanced) independently
owned undeveloped copper asset globally by our estimates. With an impending
copper supply deficit expected in the latter half of this decade, we believe
SolGold remains well poised as the project continues to develop.
cont'd
Open pittable resources could be key to Alpala development
With 30,892m of drilling from 41 assayed holes now included in the TAM MRE,
contained copper equivalent tonnes have increased by 145% in the Measured and
Indicated Resource categories to 1.89Mt at 0.36% CuEq. The open-pittable
portion has increased 94% to 1.28Mt CuEq at 0.36% (within 356.5Mt of
material). Optimisation studies of the potentially open pittable Mineral Resource
show a higher-grade internal zone containing 223.3Mt @ 0.41% CuEq which
includes an outcropping zone containing 28.0Mt @ 0.43% CuEq and 10.5Mt @
0.55% CuEq. Taking the PFS plant nameplate capacity of 25Mtpa, TAM could
offer 10+ years of feed, albeit at a lower grade of ~0.41% CuEq vs. Alpala’s 0.93%
CuEq in Reserves. The open pit mineralisation could also be developed in
tandem with the plant but prior to the Alpala cave to reduce peak funding
requirements.
cont'd
Latest Hannam update: 26th May 2022:
SolGold (“SOLG”) has announced an updated Mineral Resource Estimate
(“MRE”) for the Tandayama-America (“TAM”) porphyry project at Cascabel in
Ecuador, just 3km from Alpala. M&I Resources total 528.5Mt @ 0.36% CuEq for
1.27Mt Cu, and 3.16Moz Au, with over double the contained copper compared to
Oct’21’s maiden MRE and significant quantities of open pittable material. The
results validate TAM’s potential to both bring forward production at Cascabel
and substantially derisk the cave development through supplementary feed to
the plant, with these options likely to be considered within the Alpala PFS
Addendum due later this year, and in the DFS due H2 CY23
cont'd
Jerry true this needs to break all time highs next month if there's an offer pending imho
There have been many notes out from Hannam in last few weeks. Don’t think 4p will make much difference as we can’t stay over 40p!
Ship agree
It's a stooge broker. Their opinion is like the telegraph backing Johnson. It has no merit
Slightly surprised that no one has posted that the above has issued an update after the Rns today. TP 101p.