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Good morning Ortherncopper I find your 11.32 post well informed and thoughtful.
I believe you are correct .
BHP and NCM thought Solgold were going to roll over on forward financing.
I don't see a bid for the reason you suggest but looking at it from a different angle.
Any bid must be large enough that Solgold, DGR and any of NM's other holdings (think Tenstar is still about) plus BHP and NCM would all sell.
I don't believe the deal with Osisko for 50 million solely for Cascabel is a mistake.
I believe it's key to Solgolds future which will be laid out in the strategic review to advance Cascabel.
After all advancing Cascabel requires finance and whatever is decided, well 50 million will help nicely.
We can be sure of only one thing.
If the plan as stated is to advance Cascabel and when have obtained 50 million to do so.
Then the one thing Solgold is not planning to do is sell it.
Morning… I think everyone will be happier when all this comes to a close.. maybe not overly happy with the final price…. Especially those with averages in the 20-30p range that have faithfully held for years… But happy it’s all finally come to some conclusion… if indeed there is any bid.
If there is a bid teased out by Maxit, I can’t see any opening bid being more than 100% premium to the share price on the day.. but let’s hope I’m wrong.
And with regards to BHP or NCM etc, I don’t for minute think they care for percentage returns on their investments in Solg.. they were taken as a foot in the door, in order to take the asset if they choose to… they either still want it, or they don’t… in their world, their investment in Solg is pennies… they will not be concerned about wanting an extra 10p on the eventual take out price, or what that price relates to their current average, if it’s not them taking it out.
On a separate note, I’ve always found the decision to do a royalty deal with Osisko, just before trying to sell or monetise the asset, very strange.. The idea of knowingly, slicing off a further percentage of future profitability before you try to sell it seems nonsensical…. But then our board have made lots of bad decisions handling this asset… I chalk that up as just another
Bozi has said no one will care what price BHP and other major shareholder initially purchased their shares at as they do have a majority of shares. Isn't dilution a *****! But one has to also consider Mather, DGR and his consortium of other large shareholders will certainly tip the combined balance well over 50% levels. These shareholders (under Mather's control ) have in the main gotten their holdings at a lot cheaper price than BHP etc. Remember that DGR once held 50% of SOLG at time of listing on London Exchange when price was 50ps i.e., 200+million shares meant around 100 million pounds. Now valued at around 35 million. Mather's own current holding value, though purchased when he managed to buy at prices of around 2p per share (whilst the managing CEO) together with all of his free bonus shares (still making 10s of millions in profit), has also dropped off equally. So I don't think all these current significant shareholders will be accepting a 40 to 50p takeover offer. It going to have to be a little bit more in MHO. The problem is no one trust Mather within the company nor entities who may make a takeover offer. Mather has been paid well in excess of $US10 million while he was the SOLG CEO over the last decade (plus bonus shares)and upon his resignation only received an additional $750,000. All the while he was acting in a part time role and being paid handsomely being in control of other companies linked to SOLG and DGR. Get rid of this self serving wolf and SOLG's other shareholders might actually get something of their investments back.
Morning Orthern
As you say nobody knows how this will unfold… we all just have out best guess/ guesses.
I think we’ll see a bid around the levels you mention
40/45/50 …. I think Sangha is confident of this which is why he’s been so confident in shooting his mouth off. Only when the first bid lands will we know for sure how many, if any, other parties are interested. I’m optimistic there will be a few.
Either way it would bring this to an end at a considerable premium to where we stand currently.
ATB DBW
Blimey 1981, I've really got under your skin haven't I? Having a read through the name-calling and total misrepresentation of my original point.
I am not saying the board are actively suppressing the share price. I am saying that - possibly - in the short term they are not concerned about a re-rate here. Why? If Caldwell and Sangha know that upon completion of the merger there is a very, very strong likelihood that the Chinese will table an offer for either Cascabel or the company at 45p, the share price in between now and then is utterly irrelevant.
In fact, the two arguably have a vested interest in the share price remaining at these levels because they can claim to have delivered a huge premium for shareholders when the bid arrives. I would point to the absence of any RNS on the good progress made with the merger as an example of the company not maximising its opportunities to deliver shareholder value in the short term here. This had many of us totally baffled as it was a big and important milestone for the company.
If they strongly believe a bid at 45p is coming shortly, are happy with that price and know that they or another party aren't going to pay any more, they simply aren't going to bother trying to coax the price upwards are you? You might argue that in doing so you have a greater opportunity of achieving a higher bid, but these guys will have a pretty good idea of what potential suitors are and aren't willing to pay. And I repeat, the story Caldwell and Sangha are able to tell upon delivering a 300% premium makes for much better reading for their own careers and reputations. This isn't "actively suppressing" the share price, which I've never claimed, rather it's not doing all in their power to boost it in the short term. There's an important nuance here that hopefully an intellectual heavyweight such as yourself can understand.
Finally, you wrote "He suggested that they were keeping it down, by failing to release news about regionals" - where did I say this? Looks a total fabrication to me and would be illegal.
Thanks Bozi for making some of these points. 1981, happy to discuss all things SOLG with you on here, but I'd ask you to refrain from misrepresenting and twisting what I post when doing so. Though I'm sure you'll just go back to obsessing ovwr and abusing the posters on here you've got a hard on for.
BKN - follow the thread all the way back to the source........
May the source be with you......
SM
Z
I think this debate stems from a post from ShareMarket @ 15.48 yesterday BN.c
Whilst there has been lots of strong opinions expressed in recent days, it nice that most of them centre around pending corporate action, timescales, the perplexing current sp and the final price and what happens next. How far we have come as most see an end game in sight, even if for some that is later on in Q3 / 4.
I've reflected on most of what has been written in recent days, however my thoughts keep coming back the Warren Irwins comment ( paraphrasing ) 'the sp won't recover before we hit Step 3'.
It's obviously unclear exactly what he knows, but for sure he has good relationships with Scott and knows big bad Bob very well thanks to their joint backing of solg way back when after they provided Nick the $ to prove up the discovery. We're all reading between the lines here, but after the next few frustrating days are out of the way until the merger is rubber stamped, we're heading for interesting times sooner rather than later IMHO. Enjoy. C
hi Bozi
"SM"?
Who's this please?
Ta
S
Fort - 48p is just the two bags from 16p. 32p being the first bag and 48p being the second.
I'm also not sure why you think any bidder might be in the slightest bit bothered what Norges average is, or NCMs or BHPs....
These entities no longer control enough shares to control the vote.
Can I ask who "SM" is wee're all referring to please?
Ta
BN.c
Ortherncopper,
You make sound like it's all sound to Maxit? 48p would be a 3 bagger for some new entrants like Chinese, but considering the majority of large holders are 'in' at well above 28p+ such as Blackrock, BHP, Nam and Norges to name a few... do you think they'll be happy with 48p?
IMHO all Maxit need to do is get an offer presented at 38p never mind 48p. That will be enough to see some come out of the shadows and some spit dummies out. Then it's all about what follows. Bid wars, counter offers etc etc.
Any offer will need to have at least 50% of shareholders behind it before it even becomes a goer in any bid battle.
I can't see NM or BHP or Nam or Norges or quite a few others accepting 48p a share.
So stop worrying about where the share price is now and stop worrying about what makes Maxit look good. Worry about the larger shareholders here and what they might accept. They are the ones that will swing it.
On a personal level, I'd take 58p for ENSA (in current market) but would want SOLG to retain everything else and would expect an sp of 4p to 5p (after 48p paid out) based on Porvenir updates and future drilling across folio. Then I see the potential to grow from 4p/5p levels to around 20p to 25p pretty fast within 24 months on drill success and JV deals. So that would be more like 78p+ in total.
I think NM would happy with that scenario and gives all a chance to discover another Tier 1 or possibly 2 of them over next 2 or 3 years with no delusions of taking them to production this time around!
Give it a rest with your stupid ramps.
There was zero chance the merger wasn’t going to complete, so on completion nothing will change.
Losing big time on your gambling are we?
No one is going to pay your fantasy football figures, in Ecuador…………
At least readers can console themselves that you have been ramping this, since the 30s last year, so must be really hurting now
Finally, so you agree with me? Glad that didn't take all day!
The board have not held back news, SM is a fantasist, and not a very clever one.
Happy Saturday, all. Hey Rampy Red! Why stop at 50p. Why not tell everyone this share is about to jump to £10? No one believes you or listens to you anyway, so knock yourself out! x
Merger finished...starting price 50p...?
No. The board haven't held back news. There's no news ready to release. They've put the company on a track where there's no strategy but to explore a couple of options.
There's nothing illegal going on.
But the company's share price is suppressed following poor management and if they get it sold this year Maxit will come out of this smelling of roses.
I don't rubbish the majority of tripe on here, but this one is actually beyond satire. You've backtracked from a more full defense of SM, but you're left saying there is a possibility that the board have held back news (potentially illegally) to keep the share price low so that a banker they have brought on board can claim to be better at his job. Will you say, without embarrassment, that you think that's a possibility. Go on, please say that to everyone here.
I didn't say SM was right. I said I wasn't going to rubbish his claim. Bit of a difference in those statements.
I think it's fair to say there are other motives for having a share price that has softened including the ones you've set out but if SM wants to pass an opinion who are you or I to ridicule him?
I'll give you my opinion. SMs theory is a by-product of what you believe is going on. Neither of you are right or wrong.
It is adorable how you think an absence of precedent still allows for SM being right. Please read carefully what he said, and what I'm rubbishing: that the board of Solgold have deliberately suppressed the share price not to fill their nose bags. Not to make them more appealing for sale. But so that Maxit look like they've done a better job. Read that a few times and tell me, hand on heart, that that is exactly what you believe is happening here. If you don't, and you think it sounds crazy, you're with me.
Let me put it to you another way 1981.
Who brought Caldwell and Vujcic on board? CGP
Who are CGP heavily involved with? Maxit
Why are Maxit involved when SOLG had engaged Citi? You tell me.
The fact of the matter is that the SP gets walked down from 40p to 12p over 6-8 months. The merger gets announced and any directors and personnel with links to BHP get potted. Cazzubbo, Marshall, O'Kane and Cashman. Maxit gets appointed right at the very bottom.
Dress it up how we like but that's what happened.
I'm not diverting 1981. This is all part of the same argument. You seem to be obsessed with precedents and something happening before to justify it happening again.
I'm trying to put a real time view of SOLG to you with the relevant questions.
I see you trying to move on Bozi. I get it. You can't defend SM's stupidity so you're now diverting. Nice one.
I think solg are probably preoccupied with trying to get themselves sold, at a guess. Very little news until the SR is released. But not (and I can believe I'm having to say this for the 10th time today!) NOT because the board are trying to keep the SP low to make Maxit look better!! Ha! Ffs... Don't be as thick as SM.
So 1981, with that it mind tell me why SOLG won't announce a plan to drill Helipuerto? Surely you'd agree it makes sense to drill test this property with a view to feeding into the strategic review?
We also have $50m for Cascabel and no work streams. So are we saying we're going to sink $80m on G&A and there's nothing suspicious about that at all?
Just give me one link to one reputable source that says SM's crazy theory has happened even once, and I'll accept it's a possibility. Otherwise he's wrong and you've all jumped on me for calling him out.
Bozi
If there is no precedent, it's not happening here. Solg management might be a bit bumbling, but they are not risking prison to boost Maxit's bragging rights.
I'd describe solgold's management as poor- would you disagree?
I don't think solg management has a trick up it's sleeve to double the sp.
SM's statement is still total horsesh** . The board here are not keeping the SP down so that Maxit can claim to have done a better job.
1981, there was a great deal of suspicion surrounding BCN.
Personally, I do not believe this is happening here, but I'm afraid you're not right to say it's never occurred.