George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
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I Can agree with almost all of that too… except talk of 50-60p..
I had hoped over the last couple of years that any sale of Ensa or Solg as a going concern would achieve north of 50p…. We were never getting anywhere near or over £1…. That was just people dreaming after years of Solgs hyperbole chuff…
But we are where we are now…given we canned the Porvenir PEA just as it was due to be released and had high hopes for… given we shelved the PFS addendum, probably because the financials were not what we hoped for, timed with global economic factors making financing costs more expensive, and given we had to raise recently at such low prices, meaning there will be circa 3 billion shares in existence now.. compared to the 1.7 when BHP arrived… I could go on… given BHP opted to go for Oz… there are many factors pointing to a rather disappointing end to the Solg Cascabel story… but for me the refusal to release our studies recently is a big blow.. My concern is our asset, just isn’t the golden egg for everyone to chase that we all hoped it was.. Osisko and Franco know someone will eventually develop it… but they don’t care how low it is sold for, or how poor any final deal is for Solgs shareholders.. they will make their money.
I do believe Maxit etc don’t give a stuff how low our share price is right now… as any deal struck in the high 20s can be sold as a success…. doubling of the share price at the time… early 30s.. even better achievement. Long termers will be disappointed but the deal makers will spin it as a great achievement given global factors.. and they will get their fees…
Obviously we all had dreams when we repeatedly hit 40p and above… we swallowed all our boards guff because we dared to dream..
I sold a large chunk of my holding on the day the PFS was released, as it came with no plan or finance in place… of course I should have listened to my brain rather than my dreams and exited fully there.. I never for a minute thought we would be sat at 14p post PFS and announcing intentions to monetise.. all be it far too late in the day.
Such a shame.. we really are left just hoping Bob can pull off a deal, to at least exit at a just respectable price, having held for so long…. The lost opportunity cost of sticking here is difficult.
DG …. Pretty much agree with All of that ….. apparently Big PR push to follow merger , hopefully get this moving north fast
I agree DBW - Jiangxi were given the 16p shares as we needed the cash - backed into a corner of our own making. Cuzzubo should have placed around April May of last year but was busy with his own plans to drive us into the dirt. We also needed to dilute BHP / Newcrest so it had to be done.
Jiangxi won’t in my opinion want to stop at 6% but they are not just gonna pay a huge premium unless they have too - the Chinese have deep pockets but are no mugs. Do BHP still have desires on SOLG well that’s a debate in itself - personally I’m not convinced, they may get involved if it’s looking silly cheap but doubt they really have the desire to pay the big bucks - do they want to enrich Nick and Bob who told them to F… O… I doubt it
I do think there will be others who are sniffing around especially now we are all talking 40,50,60p (or less) - but getting the first bid is all important.
I was hopeful that Jiangxi were gonna move as soon as merger completed - but they will be watching the price drop day after day - so why move now when it’ll be cheaper tomorrow …..’if’ there are no other bidders
SOLG need to reverse the direction of travel and fast - back to my point about building excitement / momentum as right now they are looking lame and without real strategic direction
I don’t think jiangxi will get another “sweetener “ like the 16p placing…. That was a carrot to give them a foothold whilst providing us with much needed funding and reducing BHP’s:NCM’s influence at the same time.
The fact remains the Chinese are not in this for 6% so will BHP et Al sell to them without a fight ?
Personally DinnerMoney I don’t see the need to place the CGP shares now - totally agree we’d only get 14p ish if we were lucky and to suffer additional dilution would just be unwarranted - we don’t need the money
Maybe right at the start of the merger a placing of these shares may have been a worthy consideration but as soon as Jiangxi we’re brought in in the cheap I think that negated the need for a further placement
Return them to treasury and offset the ones placed to Jiangxi - every penny counts now when it comes to the final take out value
If we are lucky enough to get a bidding war how long could it take - six mths ? Would that be enough time to even bother on a new drilling campaign to add extra value - I’m really not so sure. It could serve as an impetus for any bidder to get a move on maybe but to me my initial thoughts are a new drill campaign is another can kicking exercise and do they really have any road left for that ?
DM …. I doubt they’d place now either and if they did it’d need to be at a premium this time …. Just conjecture on my part
“we are somewhat fortunate that Nick & the new CGP team have enough skin in the game to align on the desire for a good exit”
That’s exactly right and absolutely vital
They need to tread very carefully indeed now
No more wishy washy presentations
The trust has gone - blown away and from that position it’s very hard to regain it
CGP holders will soon have their SOLG stock and without a positive reason to hold they may well dump as soon as they have the ability to do so in a liquid market - remember many of those investors trust SOLG even less than we do !
Their credibility is around the zero mark - we are somewhat fortunate that Nick & the new CGP team have enough skin in the game to align on the desire for a good exit - although good for me has diminished a lot over the years and even more so over the last few mths
Merger was announced in Oct - so was probably agreed in Aug / Sept ….surely that’s enough time to merge two rather small companies. We are not talking multi billion pound mega giants here
It’s action needed now - I’m done with their empty words
DBW typical solgold,never straightforward,can't wait to get this sold off asap imho
DG …. The impression I get is that they know every move has to be carefully planned and well executed from here on in, step by step.
The merger delay could be anything from simple red tape to wanting to place the CGP shares prior.
Once it’s complete things could happen fairly quickly but I’d rather they sacrifice a little haste to ensure the right conclusion.
We may well actually get some planned drilling but this will only be to keep the wheels turning and potentially add value whilst the inevitable takeover plays out IMO
That’s my sentiment also…. We don’t need more rehashed pr drivel…more talk of first mover advantage… we are far beyond that now.. the market is totally ignoring it, and rightly so.. we dont need a corporate presentation painting a rosey picture.. we need a firm, clear explanation of the SR results… We need crystal clear next steps to achieve monetisation… no obfuscation just clarity.
But we won’t get that.
Good to know DBW - however the problem is now that very few Investors believe a word that is written into presentations. Unfortunately SOLG have fed us so much information over the years which hasn’t come to pass that anything they put out now will be dismissed.
Remember all the Gantt charts with timelines we have been given - or Cuzzubo’s presentation which was given after we all dialled in only for him to have been sacked a week or so after - RNS’s that are never followed up (JV search for tennaments springs to mind) - pretty much anything the company puts out now will be instantly dismissed out of hand as more misdirection and dare I say it bull s….
It’s only actions the company make that are a guide to really what’s going on and on the surface right now these actions are few and far between
The market wants to know the merger is complete but more importantly what comes next - they have had long enough on the SR - what’s the outcome ?
I personally don’t want another slide deck and certainly not a ‘monster in the making’ pic of old T-Rex
If the company doesn’t come out and clearly detail that they are selling and are in advanced discussion (ideally with multiple parties) then the market will puke
Personally I’d like to hear from Caldwell or have another swinging bat media piece from Sangha as I want to know if that bat has connected yet or has it been popped back on it’s rack
We really are at the crunch stage now and the company needs to get some trust and faith even excitement back - no slide deck is gonna provide that
Fingers crossed it won’t be needed
The French version is imminent.
Until October 22 we were getting an updated company presentation almost once a month then it all stopped. I have been assured there will be a new presentation following hot on the heels of the merger completion…… but when will that be?
Hopefully not much longer now
CD , yes but you have all your cards nailed to a takeover bid. Can you spot the flaw in your thinking?
Nick mather
The man who struck gold only to gamble it all on red and see black come up.
Agree DM but I think they need to test drill the mine shaft and prove theory for first part Capex works before they can then bolt on cave 2 and 3. It's there for the next man (as they say) but no way a buyer will be paying for that. Always been about IRR due to self funding concept but if the latter is no longer required then they may as well have gone for a model better suited to a major or national which would have involved probably double the Capex and NAV closer to £10bln. Scale is where Alpala comes into its own as world class metal mix but SOLG had to deliver a PFS that matched the prospect of self funding.
Worth noting that the Chinese have started off 'small' with prospects in the south based on fit return of capital and then looking to scale up as time ticks along. Fortunately. SOLG have Tandy as bolt on and that present s a similar path scenario. You never know... the first deal that gets a bid war going could be the capital injection (JV) that see's Tandy move to production well before Alpala/block cave. Throw in Porvenir producing as well (early doors) in the south and a decent chunk of Capex could be covered off with the smaller faster return easy to mine projects. I guess we'll find out soon but defo expecting SOLG to split ENSA off or sell it followed by a retention of folio and renewed exploration verve to commence pretty soon. The old girl could be flavour of 2023 if we get ENSA deal executed alongside a couple of very nice long high grade holes on Rio or another prospect.
davethehorse,
If you assume any monetisation event will involve ENSA 100% then share price is irrelevant, placing levels irrelevant... all irrelevant. What is relevant is how much of that NAV (£4.3m ish) as per PFS is going to be paid by Chinese or another part. So the question should be a simple one here for investors.... what discount to NAV is likely and acceptable and gives the next man something for the carried risk going forwards??
Some say 40% NAV? Some say 50% NAV. What's left to derisk on the asset?? Block cave questions will not be comprehensibly answered for 2 years+ and carries risk.
40% NAV equates to £1.7bln. Throw on £200m or £300m for rest of folio Porvenir and some cash balance included (£40m?) and you have close to £2bln split by 3bln shares (thereabouts + some options) and bingo.... equates to 66p a share.
56p for ENSA. 10p for rest of folio.
Remember the previous recent highs of 42p were gained without a bid or monetisation event (apart from royalties).
So if we return to 30p levels (on par with the old 42p) then it's more than possible to see this double again on a winning bid situation. When we were 42p most thought it would move 50% higher on a bid from there.
My conclusion would be that anything in the 30's would be viewed by many as plausible but low ball. Anything in the 40's more acceptable but anything in the 50's and 60's would required an auction or bid process with multiple parties interested. The latter is all down to Maxit and the markets appetite for a long term Capex heavy project in a fledging mining nation like Ecuador.
I think 40% to NAV might be the best we can hope for and the biggest shame of it all is that the PFS is basically covering just 20% of the potential mine due to SOLG's desire to limit Capex in favour of bolstering the IRR.
IMHO, the best case scenario for shareholders is to sell ENSA, pocket cash. Hand it back to shareholders. And then drill baby drill on the rest of the folio through equity raises and placings and hope we find another Alpala or two.
SM - don't row back. Your comments (all of them) last night were bang on the money. Get another case of your favourite red ordered in I say!
Add - respect all your views but not sure I can agree with them on this occasion. The way you end your post is a good barometer for what you and indeed a lot of us are feeling at the moment... hope.
I for one don't ever remember the strategy of the company being to make a discovery at Cascabel and sell it on as quickly as possible. That was the CGP strategy but it wasn't SolGold's. As soon as it became apparent what we were on to the conversation shifted to development, CGP contributing their share of the costs incurred, etc.
If you think back, there was no desire just to market the asset. It became about finding the next and the next in the cluster in Aguinaga, Moran, Tandayama, etc.
This was all off the back of the company moving out of Solomon Islands given operational challenges at the company's projects there.
The story was all about making a find in Ecuador and riding it as long as was necessary. It shouldn't therefore have come as a surprise when Ecuador got big ideas about widescale overseas investment, opening their cadastre up further and SolGold were one of the company's to take part, leveraging their early environmental, social and governance efforts.
Where this went wrong IMO, was with the PEA and flawed first draft PFS. Mather was too aggressive and went unchecked until the 11th hour when Keith Marshall applied the brakes. By that point, we'd seen a rocky 24 months and LTHs started losing faith in the company's ability to get this progressed.
Had Mather restructured the organisation after the second Alpala resource estimate and brought in a team with the required knowledge and experience of studies then I'm quite sure we'd be into the early stages of construction now, so for me it's not about not believing the production rhetoric but more a case of watching a lack of delegation to suitable hires slow the company's progress considerably.
The way I see it, is that a revaluation should be forthcoming, but it likely won't be seismic. From a 15p level I'd say +/-50% is the likely result in the next 3 months, with another +50% in the offing to the upside if things play out well.
So ultimately a positive SR and we're back to 40-45p and a poor one and it's hello 7.5p.
addicknt, your comment is correct, especially the frustration aspect which is reason for venting and rubbishing the BOD for the inactivity. by many including myself.
I still believe(hope) this is going in the direction of the best shareholder value it can muster given the circumstances.
ATB
Jezzoo
That's the reality now, for those thinking we we going to get bids of 40, 50, 60p etc the likely figure will be nearer 30p with the dilution, at least to start with, maybe less...imo...
FWIIW, I think investors should look at the market cap and not the share price, then compare to times of old.
The market has a history of keeping market caps in check.
As an example, SOLG's market cap when it tested 42p highs seen last year (lot of people were happy and clapping with joy then) was just shy of £900m based 2.3bln shares and on 85% ENSA.
When the sp dropped back to 25p which acted as the base level for sometime (call it the comfortable range... not over priced and not under priced etc) the market cap was £570m.
Recently we've seen 14p/15p levels which are the lowest for a long time and many think it reflects a poor sad state of affairs at SOLG towers. Market cap today at 14.5p ish is £335m. However (here's the fun part or not)... post merger share issue (and recent fund raiser) to CGP 14.5p x approx 3bln shares = £435m cap. So when everyone was happy clapping at 42p (£900m) are we to assume all will be happy clapping at 30.5p (£900m)?
Of course we have an extra 15% ENSA in the bank but if the 85% is priced at a major discount eg 10% NAV (as it is now) then 10% of CGP's 15% ENSA stake is a pony £65m! That's ridiculous, but then so is the 8% NAV discount. However, if you take the £30m raised through Chinese at around 16p then in value terms, the chinese have acquired 6% of ENSA at a 11% of NAV.
In a nut shell, market cap matters to the stock market. So as an example, at 19p, SOLG is £570m market cap post merger. That's essentially 25p levels of old when most were non plussed and waiting for events to unfold. So at 16p or 17p seen in recent weeks that's just 10% off those levels... hence there really should be no fear of doom and gloom. No fears that things are on rocky shores. It's just the product of hefty dilution vs a market that is unwilling to price in the added 15% ENSA correctly or even get close to proper value for the NAV which should be 20% minimum based on the derisked advancements of Alpala.
Sorry for long winded post... but reality dawns... an appropriate and fair discount to NAV will only take place once a monetisation event or partner deal or full asset sale has been presented to the market. Until then... the sp is largely irrelevant but the 'animal' is actually not that far off what it used to be. In fact, I'd argue with $80m+ in bank, 100% ENSA sorted and AGM resolutions flexibility granted.... SOLG is in much better shape. Enjoy your weekends.
… the ship is being steered by a significant core of substantive shareholders who have known form, and a lot to lose personally. Their intentions (as we surmise them) make practical and pragmatic sense. I’m just topping up as I can now so my own goals can be met by a lower exit price than the 80p+ I once hoped for.
Morning addicknt, you're right RE Mather - my comment last night was flippant and a poor attempt at word play after too much red wine. Also agree that there is now a clear direction of travel, but mildly frustrated by (yet another) missed deadline and subsequent knock on effect on the share price. I remain hopeful of a positive outcome.
Enjoy the weekend.
SM
SM, I don't often disagree with your comments, but I'm afraid on this occasion I do. Mather's shift of strategy led directly to the problems we've encountered. Had he stuck to the initial gameplan we would not find ourselves in this situation. No one believed the production rhetoric and it seriously damaged our credibility.
I'm also somewhat mystified by the belief we are currently 'rudderless'. Sure, we're all worried about the current sp, but surely people can see what's going on here? We've entered a new phase under the control of a team who appear to share our opinions and I assume are giving full attention to ensuring the SR delivers on their promises.
I believe we're about to witness a seismic revelation and we have to be patient, no matter how frustrating that is. I admit, if we had not raised the cash, I'd be extremely worried, but we did and we have access to more - which we don't need at the moment.
I think folk should stop framing the company in terms of the old board and strategy - we've moved away from all that and are on the cusp of something completely different...I hope!