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iceberg, you misunderstood my point.
I was referring to a potential jv to bid for SOLG. And no, it wouldn't necessarily require a hostile bid. BHP and NCM could reach an agreement as to how they wish to move forward and then approach NM with an offer. If NM does his job properly, he'll negotiate a good price and bingo! we're all happy.
Hi Viable, don't know if you listened, to last nights webinar, some parts were repetitive, but on the PFS, Ingo mentioned days away. Someone tried to pick him up on this, as the last question in the Q&A wanted greater clarification, and he tried to do this, without naming a date. But I believe next two weeks, if not by end of month.
My reasoning is I believe that Solgold, would like this out by BHP release from standstill time. ( 15th Oct ) But are not too concerned, if it overruns.
Agree first they mentioned blackrock, newcrest and bhp.
Then it was just newcrest and bhp.
Then it was just bhp, but they admitted they hadn't spoken to BHP yet.
Now it's not mentioned at all by CGP or their proxies or bigdude or willheim.
What's sad is that they think anybody will take it seriously anyway.
HAHAHA Jerry, you echo my sentiments entirely. I said right from the start, this will not take place.
For starters you don't announce an EGM, without outlining your agenda, and certainly not, without an alternative BOD, at the time of the announcement, if your intention is to replace them.
What they are accusing Solgold of is criminal behaviour, that they have withheld price sensitive material. I think by now, after Ingo's Q&A last night, that is not the case, they are behaving in the right manner, and not releasing confidential information, as that comes in the PFS. They need to wait for it, the same as everyone else.
Lastly, they said after the 27th October, but they didn't say what year.
Understandable but ludicrous in some respects.
The final sentence with "as soon as possible . . . as soon as possible" is lame and slightly desperate.
We could be here for quite some time yet.
A JV with all current stakeholders is becoming apparent.
Am now satisfied to have reduced my holding @ 27.10p a couple of weeks back.
Opinions expressed on a daily basis are valued.
Although current gold prices have dipped, my crystal ball is tipping that the prices will rise by years end, and that Solg will have their ducks in a row. This will align nicely with Citi's defense/shareholder value add strategies.
Note: As a simple investor, my gut feel is all I have. So most definitely do your own research!
Is this EGM going to happen? I dont recall CGP nominating any replacement directors as yet. Presumably they have to give notice. Must be a put up or shut up clause? Seems to me spurious in the extreme, by that well managed company that is CGP.
Sorry addicknt, I am with Ice on this.
You mention a JV with someone else other than Solgold.
It would be hard enough for BHP to acquire a majority share of Solgold on the cheap.
Correct me if I am wrong, but you are now suggesting, that someone else will, and BHP, will sit back and let it happen, so that they can go into a JV with them.
I see you are getting a lot of recommended ticks for your posts on this theme.
I wonder how many, have thought about this in some depth, or is it a case of the lemmings are out in force today.
That last bit was a joke, for those of you with no sense of humor.
Although the market expected delays, to formally update the market all part of good governance. Especially when they've discussed it in a webinar... Eg I'm in the wrong time zone to watch the webinars and would have missed it if weren't discussed in this forum
Fair point Ice, you make a good point, about joint ventures, and I was not aware of those stats, and not sure I could check them that easily.
But we may be seeing a break in convention, as Solgold don't have to acquire Alapla, they own it. ( well 85% of it ).
So the question becomes, can they raise the money, to build it and go to construction.
Many on this chatroom, not so long ago, suggested that the Franco Nevada deal, would not be signed, because we had a deal in the background with BHP. This has been proved, not to be true.
Many on here, said that a company with no experience in building a mine, could not get the funding. I don't believe that to be true either, but we need to wait and see on that point.
After they get the money, people I suspect will say, yes they have the money, but lack the experience, so they can't build it. Some will continue to say that, after they buy in the skills required.
This is a civil engineering project, and like every other civil engineering project, will be successful, if planned correctly at the outset. Sure every project, gets bumps along the way, but the engineering teams, iron these out, produce TSB's ( technical service bulletins ) and continue, with the improved process.
In all, Solgolds ducks are lined up in a row. I believe Ingo last night, on the delays. I don't believe in conspiracy theories. Also I don't believe the market believes we will get a bid, never the less defend it, otherwise our share price would be higher.
Why on earth would SOLG agree to a JV without themselves? It's like building an expensive new house and then giving it away. The only way this would happen would be with a hostile takeover, if we have that, then I don't give a monkeys how Alpala is developed.
Sorry, I should have added that the jv will not include SOLG - why would it? BHP don't need us and nor would a Barrick/ NCM.
Quady, what SOLG have to say about a jv is pretty much irrelevant. It's whether BHP will enter into a jv in order to get their hands on the company and I regard it as quite possible.
I agree quady, but the evidence is in the history. Of the 30-50 tier 1 mines in operation 95% are JV. No Tier 1 has been developed by a none major, without a JV in the last 20-30 years. I am happy to be proven wrong, but if I am it will only be an isolated 1 or 2, with very specific circumstances.
As i say its just my opinion and is no more or less valid than others, but the evidence stacks up.
Morning Ice, the only problem with that statement, is that, every time a JV has been mentioned, Solgold have always ruled it out, as too costly, in time and money, and difficult to manage.
We have no indication, that they have changed their mind.
Regarding waiting to see what BHP do, can we assume that majors all have several irons in the fire? Solg is fairly high up on BHP's and NCM's target lists, as evidenced by their stakes, but they will have other options to explore. BHP seems to have the best relationship with Solg and be in pole position. But it's not guaranteed they will take Solg out. Maybe other majors are holding back on bidding to see if BHP does make a move or not because the last thing they want to do is waste their efforts on a bidding war with a very determined BHP, who will most likely win.
Let's say 15 Oct comes and goes, and then BHP makes some other large acquisitions in copper or gold. Maybe other majors will infer that despite liking Solg and keeping the option, in the end BHP decided to pursue other options first. That would give them confidence they could bid with a better chance of being successful if BHP has decided not to keep going for Solg.
If BHP are still keen on Solg, which I think the market is assuming they are, and another major tried to bid against them but ultimately lost, I don't think that works in the other bidder's favour at all. They will have spent large amounts of time and resources on a failed bid, and also by bidding and losing they will have triggered a need for themselves to go and buy something else. The market might think, "well you obviously needed a Tier 1 copper/gold asset, and you just lost out on one, so what are you going to do now? You better go and find one." If that is the case it probably makes their next target a bit harder to obtain, as they start to have an air of desperation about them. Targets can hold out for more knowing that the major failed to get Solg and is under pressure to secure a win to make up for it.
thanks and reassuring for a nervous type of investor like myself. I like your reasoning. It makes perfect sense.appreciated
Why inform the market now that the PFS will be late?
The market clearly expected it to be late, and its nice for the company to keep everybody informed, but do we really believe that this is just about keeping the market informed?
I agree this is just my musing, but before a company releases really good news, they like to ensure that nothing will drag it down or distract from the good news.
Could SOLG be clearing the bad news desk?
If you got some XRF results that showed some amazing core samples, If it were me, I would put the PFS to bed, then hit them very hard with the news, not in one go, maybe some results now, some next week and some the week after.
Not to brag but given what he said last night, regional results landing thurs/friday/monday would be nearly to the day that I have consistently predicted.
Just my opinion but the they will show a larger, higher quality, more profitable copper/gold deposit than the Alpala, which is itself the worlds number 1, tier 1, none major owned copper/gold desposit.
Also, again i could be wrong but SOLG has run of time to hold the AGM prior BHP's standstill ending. (A minimum amount of days notice is required by TSX and LSE). It would be the height of stupidity to do this without a further agreement with BHP in the works. My guess is that a deal with BHP (Not for the company, but JV will be announced prior the CGP deadline, which will tie in BHP and prevent them from increasing their stake). This would be a death kneel for CGP.
anyway, not long to go for this to be proven right or wrong!
My main issue with today’s RNS is the lack of new dates in it. Everything is “being finalised” or “near completion”. Having missed a long established, and much publicised key milestone, I think the stakeholders deserve to be given some indication of how much slippage can be expected. Is it a couple of weeks, or months, or longer? I am listening to what they are saying.... unfortunately the answer is “not much”. Under such circumstances it’s completely understandable that people will read between the lines.
That's part of my argument ssmith_trader, Solgold can't sell. It doesnt belong to Solgold.
The share register is so diverse, that whoever wants to buy Solgold, has to convince the majority of these holding to sell out.
My point is they won't do BHP or NCM a favour and sell cheap.
They know what their stake is worth.
Also will NCM sell cheap to BHP, or continue to hold.
That means that BHP, will need to pay full price, near to full price, or maybe a premium.
Large cooperation's don't behave that way.
I also don't think there are many others who will bid for SOLG. With NCM and BHP with large stakes, no other company would only want a minority shareholding. We need to wait to see what NC do with their stake. If and only if they do decide to sell would another company bid come into play. Right now there are only 2 buyers.
Sorry addicknt, can you name me just one situation, where a company has been brought, only after the main player has announced their intentions.
In my time in I.T, we took over lots of companies, and were taken over twice ourselves. Our main competitor was IBM. Sometimes we were successful against IBM, sometimes we lost. We were a medium player in the market.
Never have I heard that we would wait to see what IBM would do, before we bid. Quite the opposite, and to a large degree this added to our success.
Quady, as I've said on numerous occasions, no one will bid until BHP's intentions become clear. Their competitors will be looking at the situation and will have no wish to act as a benchmark for BHP's move. They will wait until BHP have played their hand and at that point, decide whether they think it worthwhile trying to compete - which in my opinion, is most unlikely. If Barrick, NCM or anyone else wants a part of this, the ONLY way to do so will be in a jv with BHP - which I think is quite possible. BHP is in a very strong position and the market knows it.
The problem you have is that you've consistently underestimated, or under-played, the percentage shareholding held by BHP and NCM. Your view is that it's trivial; it is not. It's absolutely pivotal, as NM knows full-well.
Morning addicknt, as you say, nothing has been said, it proves neither of us.
I look at the evidence. BHP has provided none.
What we do know, is that anyone apart from BHP, can talk to NM and put in a friendly bid, or go hostile.
Yes doing this releases BHP, but the argument, that everyone is waiting to see what BHP does, holds no water.
If another major, thought they could get this cheap, then advancing talks, why BHP was in standstill, would be an advantage for them, and not a disadvantage.
Nobody has bid for Solgold successfully at this stage, that tells us a lot.
One thought on the current share price. We have not announced the PFS, we are at PEA stage.
So we are worth NPV about 3.4 billion pounds. The market cap is 530 million pounds.
So we are about 15% of NPV, which is about right for the PEA.
I expect this to double soon after PFS released, with only a moderate increase in NPV.
I believe it will be more than that, but as we have seen this takes time.