We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Scrat …. Inevitable for sure …. Just a waiting game, frustrating but worth it in the end
Yes Quady.
Strategic review could also be a euphemism for audit trail for board due diligence when making a recommendation to shareholders. It could inform early negotiations with interested parties. With little to go on, we must reason according to our wits. You may hold any opinion you want, based on what you see and hear. As can I. And here I’m merely buying into a widely held hunch informed by the deafening silence and on the balance of probabilities.
Scrat what takeover, by whom and when.
We have had these rumours for over a decade.
We are working towards a strategic review for Cascabel.
That's what is occurring.
I am officially fed up with waiting for the inevitable takeover now. Just saying.
Get on with it !!
TheItalian,
Forget price. Too many investors are fixated with share prices. Focus on the asset. Focus on the reality that Tier 1 assets never go cheap. They rarely stay in the minnows hands and certainly not with 100% ownership.
That's what you have to go on. You have billions of copper and gold both metals set to be high in demand in coming years. You have a market currently processing mergers and acquisitions from BHP/OZ minerals to Newmont / Newcrest and many more. You have a solid political and robust Ecuador background with historic Chinese FTD on cusp of being signed. A president in Lasso keen on business and keen to deliver on his electoral promises of 'open for international business'.
That's what you have. It's all there. What you don't have is the detail on any interested parties or sensitive info on negotiations. And there's a reason for that.
You have one of greatest copper/gold discoveries in decades. You can focus on that or you can focus on some pony stock market incapable of even valuing its own banks correctly.
Forte, I am not a fan of the efficient markets theory since it's proven that prices are constantly moving up and down away from balance sheet based appraisals, and I also trust that there is a theoretical and rational valuation for SOLG that puts the price to 60p or 111p.
However, until the fair value is achieved, the only "real" thing about the price is the price itself at any point in time because that's what dictates our entry and exit points and therefore our profit or loss.
The only three times I have seen the SOLG price at a level that resembled a fair valuation are in May 2017, briefly in October 2018, and again briefly in April 2022. Otherwise, the 999days EMA has been floating around 25p which is higher than today's price and a major discount to the target prices we keep dreaming about.
So, what is the only thing we have unless a majority buyer steps in and pays some premium to acquire the company? The current price, that's it, everything else is forecast at best and aspiration at worst.
The Italian,
What's the 'real market'? Is the real market the one that values a stock like Noront at 23cents and then a few months later it's bought out for 110 cents? Or FSTE 250 stock Wood Group real market price some months ago 100p, few months later buyer offers 240p.
I think you'll find there are two markets out there and one is real and the other is a complete farce. You only really know the 'true market' when an offer comes in and is accepted. There used to be a timeline ago before also bots, CFD's spread bets and so on when stocks were valued correctly and buyers or acquisitions expected but with a 30% premium at best. There used to be a time when the stock market as a whole was expected to rise about 3% to 4% per year. These days due to the casino bookies like city index IG et al, the FTSE or DOW can do that in an afternoon session.
It's supposed to be a highly sophisticated market with very smart individuals out there deserving of their millions and millions of bonuses. Yet for some reason, a simple fruit market store can value its stock much better. The Housing market can value stock much better. The car industry can value its stock much better. The farming industry can value its stock much better. But the stock market?? Well... don't go there looking for an expert valuation lol! Those days have past. You'd be better off going to Ladbrokes and even they are better at valuing the odds of success or failure.
Hard to get stock in size today...had to break it up into chunks again...eventually got what we wanted...
I still see USD 75c as medium forecast, or 60p.
I suppose it does not really matter if 60p goes to 111p if we cannot even reach the 30s in the real market.
Dm. Who told you what I posted?. You screamed from the rooftops last week, you'd filtered me. Don't think I will engage with you again. Can't trust a thing you say
You
Bonkerman. The analyst must of read ftdyns post.
"Personally I’m encouraged by the current news void / blackout as it’s a sure fire indicator that serious negotiations are taking place behind closed doors"
I might also add that the impending ftd, that dm thinks has actually been triggered. Has now been impending for almost two years. So the uncomfortable truth is that once again, the facts interfere with your theorys.
Fortissimo. Another interesting theory. You do realise a 60% premium on our present price gives us a grand total of around 28p a share. Just a little short of most on here's expectations. I would imagine most on here would actually lose money. Sobering thought.
Bonkersman,
Do you have a reference to the analyst target of 111p? Thanks.
Price of resources I would think Bonkermann
Interesting reference to Caracal Oil as that had an offer which was reasonable but not exactly a knock out deal with a Canadian firm. Then at 11th hour Glencore stepped up and offered a 60% premium to the share price at the time.
Based on current Ecuador /Chinese relations and impending FTD, it does look very much like a Chinese consortium whether part or in full will take ENSA. Makes sense all round. What will be interesting is how the rest of the folio works out eg what gets spun off into newco or SOLG. Porvenir plus some southern assets might go with ENSA has Chinese already big in South. Call me cynical, but I can see Mather/DGR or some new entity getting gifted some of the SOLG exploration blocks with company citing relinquishment as alternative as good deal etc. In simple terms, Mather would get another run at doing another Alpala. Let's face it, we have 60+ licence blocks and each has a committed spend of hand back the blocks for zero. Very easy for insiders to have sight of reference to data like rock chips and seismic detail material and yet end up paying very little for it. Most of us won't care much what happens to the 40 odd licence blocks if Chinese offer a fair price.
This was always around 70p for the last few years but has shot up to £1.11p………why?
Good morning Mog, thanks for the nice article , which is actually positive for us. Not only does it highlight the inevitable shortfall in Copper production but, it demonstrates that jurisdictions everywhere have their problems and miners (on the whole) overcome these problems. We have a Tier 1 with many positives. Power, water, a local population that seem satisfied with the possibility of a mine to be developed in a modern efficient way. Now just waiting for a buyer, ha, ha!!!
Morning solgers,how's the scaremongering going this morning
It has been said many times, but while a lot of people on here only want to argue, have a read of this about large mine supply, posted on Bloomberg but this url should be routed via yahoo
https://tinyurl.com/mr4ydacs
Just imagine how happy some cretins would be if they were responsible for some missing the takeover on this one.
Unfortunately in life not all are good"uns
Warren Irwin
@ItsWarrenIrwin
·
1h
Replying to
@DarrenG54668014
@philippkopfli
and 7 others
Waiting for a takeover is one of the most frustrating and painful parts of the investment process. I remember once getting fed up waiting for a a sale of Caracal Oil and selling 2 weeks before the takeover. I left 10 million dollars in the table for my impatience.
Ftjny. Good morning, I would be grateful if you could explain to me why Blackrock would be selling x amount of millions of shares, if just before, as you say a sale is imminent. Surely they are smarter than that. It's not as if they sold them at much of a premium. My uneducated view is that they are concerned about instability. Unlike quady and a several others on here. But would be happy for you to put me right.
Fortissimo. Just read your latest block buster of a theory of why share price is in the the doldrums. Where do you these ridiculous theorys from. You seem to be able to try to change one hair brain theory into what you perceive paragraphs of facts. How does your latest mind blower, relate to the share price over the last couple of years being sh**te. The Chinese weren't even on the scene