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Quady, wrong, that is not the explanation I've given you. I referred to the tactics employed in any competitive corporate finance situation. You make a number of fundamental errors in your understanding of the position, one of the others being your constant reference to a "diverse register". You and I share the view of this company's prospects, but when it comes to the corporate position you have a very severe case of tin ear.
To succeed, a bidder must secure 51% of the shares. If he does not do that , he does not succeed. We have discussed the way shareholdings are likely to go in the past. It is unlikely that BHP and NCM will give (sell) each other their shares. Cornerstone will, no doubt, sell to the highest bidder. A large chunk is controlled by NM and the PIs will not all go the same way. Thus it will be difficult, but not impossible, for a bidder to get over the line. Because of all that, I expect Solgold to go to production.
PS I had my last Ecuadorian banana for my breakfast today!
addicknt, you have answered the question, by stating if BHP want Solgold, they will just buy it, which means a large bid. Same for anyone else, that wants to buy Solgold. They don't need to be out of standstill to make such a bid, also others are free to bid. But still no bids. Why?
Quady, I think it's just not the right time for it. A bid with a minimum chance of succeeding should be very conservatively above £2, which no one would offer before the formalities (PFS, BFS) are satisfied. The market is not there yet. If those formalities are satisfied and the CGP issue is finally resolved, then the price will start to move north in expectation of a bid or simply to reflect a company in better state. The fact that the price reflects a different expectation at this time tell you all you need to know in my opinion.
Quady, I think I know! Is it because NM doesnt want a bid and wants to take this to production in ten years time? And as we all know, whatever NM wants he gets regardless of price, buyer and shareholder opinion.
Well said Talatum , as I have said many times, a diverse book, makes this hard to bid for. These companies are in competition with each other. If you want to bid for Solgold, you don't go hostile. In fact you don't bid. You try to increase your stake, bit by bit.
Quady, I've answered that question on numerous occasions. I genuinely mean absolutely no disrespect here, but if you'd had any experience of corporate finance, you'd understand. And yes, it does make a very great deal of difference.
@schlemiel I think the valuation was always supported by the fundamentals, but collective price action was not aligned to the valuation for all the reasons we know, and now it's starting to converge because speculating down has become too risky. You could see it in the chart back in August, I posted it on the 25th August describing exactly what has been happening since the end of September.
Good morning AKGold, I am not familiar with legality and machinations of a bidding war but I firmly believe that if NM has his way no bid will succeed. So I would be interested in views on the following scenarios which all assume that NM votes against them because he has a crazy price in mind. 1. Let us assume that BHP puts in a bid and it is acceptable to over 50% of shareholders. Does it then go ahead and NM has to sell his shares?
2. Now lets us assume that Major X over bids BHP. Can BHP vote against the higher bid? If yes then say we have (BHP + NM + others against the bid) less than 50% for the bid and the higher bid fails. Are we then back to 1 which with BHP support crosses the 50% threshold and the company is sold for less than what was on offer!!
3. Surely the prospect of company being sold at lower price would force NM to vote for the higher bid which may then cross the 50% thresholds and BHP are forced to sell or come up with a higher bid.
4. Enter NC with their shareholding and we have more possible scenarios
It all seems to me to be very confusing and messy and that may be the reason why none of the others have bid so far. If I was a major wanting to bid I would have bid now and make the bid subject to PFS. But as I have said I know nothing about machinations of bidding so await to read reactions, opinions, and comments of others
Must admit, this is getting boring. Can someone, please tell me, why no one has bid for Solgold up till now. And before anyone says it's because BHP are still in standstill. Just stop and think, and you will understand that makes no difference. The price is not going up, because we are expecting a bid, the price is going up, because we are getting the message out, that we are undervalued, and we have an expanding news story.
I think that more importantly, we are now crossing the last remaining downtrend line that was connecting the two previous peaks in May 2017 and October 2018. Now I suppose that we need to see what happens up to the previous 46.88 peak, I expect some resistance since it's a very meaningful level but if we instead cruise through or in any case eventually go over that resistance point, I expect the price to propel to 65p next with no major stoppers on the way. GLA, finally vey exciting times!
I can`t see NM letting go of this company for £1 to £1.50, he knows we are worth much more than that with possibly $1 trillion worth of metal in the ground, he would be insane to let it go for much less than 1% of that.
I think the first offer will be circa 100p and have to be raised to 150p to have any chance of success. Not a bad result for present holders - given the fact that we cannot conclusively judge the future? I would accept 150p if not happy wait long term?
Well, Father ted was my favourite piece of art over, so it was the name I picked for HC. But then lse is a UK site, so there were already 15 different characters called father ted, Father Ted 6969 etc etc, so "feck" is just a catchphrase from the show, so I tacked that on. I think it's a pretty good show obviously...
I was wondering if a Major is sitting on the Fence for Solg to publish PFA, BFS and others the price they pay might be way North of today's SP. If I am major do I want to miss all the upside and throw in the Towel and offer a crazy price. These were all possibilities when we were 1 Trick pony.
No with Porvenir, Blanca and Rio to follow may be not all Tier 1. The tables have turned.
None of the major discoveries have happened in last 10 years, If Cascable , Porvenir comes as Tier1, we will be surrounded by all the majors to get a piece of this.
If I am BHP or Barrick or Chinese. I want to get in early and enjoy all the upside. Remember couple of years back Jason said we have 18 Majors/smelters looking at the data. Some of the key points for Majors : Largest ore body discovery in last 10 years Largest land bank in Ecuador Another Tier 1 discovery in the pipeline Most Geologists on the ground .
If we have 2 Billion share with a Mkt cap of 1 Billion , I am happy to offer 1-1.50 pounds a share to get the whole thing. I think the problem I suspect is NM is not warming up to the idea. He may have a crazy price in his head for the whole lot.
I think does worry me if I am Barrick why would I wait for 15-Oct standstill agreement data, why not move early and give NM what he wants.
The SP has never held so strong in past 2-3 years what we have seen in last 2 weeks.