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Can't disagree with your rational post dartfrog except in one respect...
Nick has never ruled out a takeover bid, otherwise why did he appoint Citi, specifically for 'bid defense' (US spelling...)
He has, however, in various ways, said or implied that it would take a high price for it to happen...
That can't be bad for any of us...
Look at the growing serious discussion among authoritative commentators about, inter alia:
Massive prospective copper shortages in the future with the EV boom (not to mention a raft of green infrastructure projects soon to come down the pipe from Western Governments to rebuild economies post COVID...)
No new Tier 1 copper finds outside Alpala (so far)
Major miners' depleting resources, not only in copper but especially in gold...9 years total life left in existing mines...
Growing assumptions of increased M&A activity in the mining space, together with 'buybacks' e.g. HGM and KAZ
Major miners' declared strategies to replenish declining resources, primarily through exploration or acquisition
Rationalisation of existing portfolios to move away from 'dirty' commodities, especially coal and oil, with an increasing focus on copper, nickel, lithium, rare minerals, together with gold and silver...
A raft of private and corporate monies stimulated by global Quantitative Easing, looking for a long term home, at historically low interest rates (indeed penal rates, with negative real and actual rates penalising the holding of cash and bonds)
And a concerted need by the developed economies to resolve the massive debt problems caused by post 2008 QE and COVID financing, i.e. 'fiat money' which either needs to be reset (quasi gold standard) or inflated away. Either of these WILL precipitate a gold/silver boom...
So...there is an undoubted need for much more copper that isn't going away...the US equity and debt markets are 'bubbles' waiting to explode, just like the tech bubble in 2000 and sub prime in 2006...gold (and inevitably silver) will boom (otherwise why have JPM ($900m fine) and several leading banks (see today's news), spent so much money, time and energy manipulating the precious metals markets for so many years...
And there is one company perfectly placed for this perfect storm...even in Alpala alone, we have prospectively among the world's biggest silver, gold and copper mines...
And Porvenir and Rio may be even bigger...!!!
Keep the faith...its only a matter of time...
AIMO as usual...
No point in holding all the cards if you don’t have the money to lay down to win it, it takes more than a smile to win at poker
..does not mean 'will never'
Especially as this juicy carrot is getting fatter and fatter.
Big bunny will not be able to hold back forever before devouring.
The majors are not stupid they know fully well what is on offer here.
I know that many here seem to have a good amount of time to spare so they keep mulling this over and over and over and over again, and debate the topic ad nauseam, but in reality it's quite simple and very well known.
Only a Bankable Feasibility Study delivers an accuracy at or above 90%, so it's only at that stage that a large mining company, or a bank, or a lender, can justify to their own board or shareholders a large expenditure like the one that NM is aiming for.
For reference, even a Prefeasibility study is nowhere near the confidence level of a BFS and can be as low as 30%, while a PEA can be as accurate as 5-10%.
So you really have to appreciate that there are many highly material variables around the resource size that can enhance or reduce the value of the resource, and some have not been defined yet.
I trust none of you would buy a house with a mortgage before knowing the interest rate of the loan, the tax implications and before the surveyour finds out if the house suffers from subsidence or the seller is not the legitimate owner or there were modifications.
This is no different. AS SOLG is pushing towards production, the BFS will be the trigger for any significant corporate activity. Even the Franco Nevada deal is not material enough as it only acknowledges a fraction of the potential true value.
Good morning Bubble, DartFrog beat me to it.
He neatly sums up the bid scenario.
This can be defended. Because no one on a very diverse book, is going to say let's sell our shares cheap. Their share of Solgold is an appreciating asset. The diverse book makes this almost impossible to bid for. As they would have to obtain the shares of many parties to be successful. No one is going to sell cheap.
A bid would have happened after the PEA, if we were going to get one. The let's sell brigade, all said this. Now they are saying, the majors will buy after the PFS, as they want to pay for a known quantity. When this doesn't happen, I will predict it will be the DFS. It goes on and on
I have been invested for 7 years in this share now, and every week, someone has predicted an imminent sale.
All the best.
Dartfrog,yes nm holds all the cards here
The DFS won't be available until the end of next year, so yes, I stand by my opinion.
So, answer my question - are BHP going to be content with 13% of what is one of the most important discoveries in the mining world?
I'm sorry, but your constant use of the argument 'it hasn't happened', is astonishingly daft - there is no other expression which does it justice.
Quady,morning ,agree with the fact that we havent seen any news regards any offers,but am still of the opinion that we will be taken over at some point ,the demand for rare commodities as big as solg have and are continuing to prove up far outweighs the go it alone stratergy,I know nm has tied up a few deals with fn but there's big conglomerates with big pockets becoming diversified and are desperate to get hold of assets like solg have imho ,just my opinion ofcoarse ..
Thank you Mathersfinger.
What you say could happen, however a lot would have to change.
Let's cover your funding argument first. The payback of funding Alpala is under 4 years, at PEA. Let's see what it is at PFS. Ingo is confident, this can be raised with no dilution. The comments on minimal dilution, referred to CGP offer, and maybe further exploration.
Yes BHP, have been rearranging their finance, as they say, that they are investing in owned projects to increase production. Let's see what happens with the PFS, and if we can finance Alpala on our own.
Lastly, the book is diverse, so nobody is getting this cheap. Let's see how a bid would hit a moving target.
All the best.
NCM are not likely to sell their 13% to BHP or anyone else. BHP are not likely to sell their 13% to NCM or anyone else. NCM and BHP are not friends; they are arch rivals! BHP have pending options, but they only amount to about 1%. CGP will sell to the highest bidder. NM holds or controls about 20%. BHP and NM and other potential buyers may pick up shares in the market, but I would doubt that would be a great number. Depending on the price, I would doubt if more than 20% of PIs, etc would accept a BHP or NCM offer, most will follow NM, i.e. if an offer is recommended by the board. All in all, I cannot see how a bid will succeed. Obviously it would all depend on the price on offer, but an offer price to be successful will have to be unaffordably high to be acceptable to NM and the majority of shareholders. To me NM has most of the cards.
Although I can't read Quady's posts, I suspect I understand where he is coming from and have every sympathy with his view...
Rational logic from one point of view, coupled with Nick's fierce determination would support that...
So let me try and bridge the two positions.
Everybody knows that I expect the inevitable...one or more bids for SOLG as a whole...
However, I've also mooted the possibility of a J/V to develop Alpala...even fairly recently.
So how do we marry the two?
SOLG is structured as a Group of companies with subsidiaries for different prospects. ENSA (albeit 85% owned) is just one of those 'subsidiaries' (correct for consolidation and accounting purposes).
Nobody could reasonably expect that Alpala could be 'mothballed' while Porvenir or Rio for example were developed...neither Nick nor the Ecuador government would seem likely to accept that, so...
Potential end game is that a J/V is created with BHP to develop Cascabel's interests (with or without CGP as minority stakeholder), similar to the Havieron model, through the corporate medium of ENSA, eventually spun off and...
A successful bid is made for the remainder of the SOLG 'Group' with my most likely candidates being Barrick...
I put this forward for debate and am open to any constructive thoughts and criticism...
It seems to me that this way Nick (and Quady) can have their cake and eat it and we all end up winners...
AIMO as usual...
There's no pleasing some people.
Good morning addicknt, hope you are well.
Let's look at the facts.
Newcrest could have bid any time, they haven't.
BHP, could have agreed a deal, with NM, while in standstill, they haven't.
Anyone can bid for CGP, they haven't.
I agree, both Newcrest and BHP, would like a bigger share, they just have to pay up. They haven't.
I am ignoring none of the facts addicknt.
I once said, onwards to the DFS, end of next year.
I remember you replying, that we won't get a DFS, as it will be sold by the end of this year.
Do you still believe that addicknt.
All the best.
Quady, I still disagree with your opinion.
NM has to be seen as strong and determined, which he is in many ways, but to believe he can hold onto this massive animal is more of his dream than reality in my opinion.
BHP has to be his best chance of a JV with a good company, if he does not go with them then Solgold will be bought out, all the news in Ecuador is as good as you can get, there must be many majors trying to get an angle on how to get this for their future resources.
To borrow money for the length of time needed to get things up and running would cost a considerable sum, also at a higher rate as they have nothing except what’s in the ground, as I mentioned before there is the rub, if something goes wrong how do lenders get their money back? It’s not as clear cut as your putting it, JV with BHP who have been clearing old debts, stopping spending damn money, selling some bits off, why? Because if they need too they can borrow money at a much lower cost have the ability to furnish their debts.
Solgold have done fantastically well, but it’s too big of an animal for just one company.
Imo, have a good day and happy birthday for the other day.
This post from Mirabeau (who I suspect is also on here...) eloquently sums up the present situation...
Nick isn't stupid, but he's lost control of the PI engagement again...let's hop[e its a temporary hiatus until markets are less weak and we get hit with a Tsunami of news that the MMs cannot withstand...
"The flow of monies coming into SOLG compared to Greatland is beyond pitiful. In fact it's pathetic . No matter how many presentations SOLG transact there is at present zero investor excitement regarding what we have
I'm not sure what type of news event will trigger a change in how SOLG is perceived by the market
Frustrating and indeed frustrated"
AIMO as usual...
As ever, Q, your analysis completely ignores the fact of both BHP and NCMs involvement and your equally naive assumption that they will be happy with their respective 13% shareholdings.
Come on, admit it - they aren't just going to sit there and do nothing, are they?
the tax issue regarding a possible sale of Cascabel is pivotal imho. If the tax is punitive it would make little sense to sell it. The easier route to monetisation would be sell the entire company to the highest bidder to avoid such taxes each time the rights to a tenement are sold.....
Quite right AKGold, those are additional facts, as we have directly observed NM saying these.
Once would be enough, but he has said these things on more than one occasion.
Let's just enjoy the ride.
There will be exit points, I suspect however, that when we reach 50 pence a share, all those that said they will take it, won't.
Why not? Because of greed, and missing out. As once we achieve 50 pence, it will be because of news. People will then say, why doesn't NM sell, as we could get a pound. Same story, same arguments, also same misunderstanding of the direction of Solgold, and how markets work.
Ref your "amazing" GGP results - it's an infill result, so not that amazing in actual fact. The brecia grades, widths and depths are much, much sketchier.
It remains hugely over-priced given the risks in play (getting scro od by NCM, any potential disappointment in the size of the MRE, CV19 and gold price drop).
Add few more -
Investors will have multiple exit points
We may not be able to sell Cascable alone due to Tax issue/penalty - not sure what impact it will have
Wherever possible will dilute the shares at cheap
We are the largest landholders in Ecuador
We have a possibility of finding at least 1-2 another Tier 1 finds from the 13 prospective targets
Morning Quady...yep mate, I agree with your last post wholeheartedly.
Gregory, I'm looking forward to the PFS whenever it arrives. I'm not holding my breath on it being anytime soon. The longer the better for me, good RNS's can easily get lost in the current climate. Also the delay will buy more drill time. I have said a few times Im not expecting any offers from majors this year, if indeed ever. I know Quady and a few others may noy agree, but I think we will hear next year that a J/V with BHP has been agreed. Sorry for the rushex reply Gregory but Im just heading out.
ps...... hope your good Quady.
Good morning Copperpot, you are correct.
People fail to listen to what NM says, and post what they thought he meant.
This is what my posts are mostly about.
Listen to what NM says, as they are the facts.
As a fact is an observation made directly or indirectly. Facts are used to build an evidential case.
So what has been said.
We are not venturing into JV's.
We are only selling at full value, or near full value.
We have the opportunity to become the BHP of Ecuador.
We have the ability to go to production, as we can raise the money independently, and do not require help on this.
We have the expertise, and can buy in the engineering expertise, to construct and bring Alpala to production.
Please dont say that, i will start crying :)
Gregory, NM never mentioned a flood of news mate, it's folk here that let their expectations run amok.
Thank you Lafitte.