London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
You will only have one login account. Registering with multiple accounts is not allowed. Any user found to have more than one account on this site will have all, and any future accounts suspended permanently.
Your email and password must only be used by you. If a post is made under your account, it will be considered that it was posted by yourself.
Your account nickname must not be the same, or contain, listed company names or board members' names.
While debating and discussion is fine, we will not tolerate; rudeness, swearing, insulting posts, personal attacks, or posts which are invasive of another's privacy.
You will not;
discuss illegal or criminal activities.
post any confidential or price sensitive information or that is not public knowledge.
post misleading or false statements regarding the share price and performance. Such posts are deemed as market abuse, and may be reported to the appropriate authorities.
post any private communication, or part thereof, from any other person, including from a member of the board of directors of a listed company. Such posts cannot be verified as true and could be deemed to be misleading.
post any personal details (e.g. email address or phone number).
post live price or level 2 updates.
publish content that is not your original work, or infringes the copyright or other rights of any third party.
post non-constructive, meaningless, one word (or short) non-sense posts.
post links to, or otherwise publish any content containing any form of advertising, promotion for goods and services, spam, or other unsolicited communication.
post any affiliate or referral links, or post anything asking for a referral.
post or otherwise publish any content unrelated to the board or the board's topic.
re-post premium share chat posts on regular share chat.
restrict or inhibit any other user from using the boards.
impersonate any person or entity, including any of our employees or representatives.
post or transmit any content that contains software viruses, files or code designed to interrupt, destroy or limit the functionality of this website or any computer software or equipment.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium and Verified Members
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Average 'Junk Bond" yields are sub 5% as mentioned earlier...
For comparison, BHP 6.500% 22Oct2077 are trading at 110 to give a yield of c4.9% with a 57 year residual maturity...
However, NM keeps talking about ten different parties interested in streaming deals...
Franco Nevada currently pays between 0.00 and 2.05% for debt (source Annual Report), so taking a line through the hinted possible $2 billion of streaming deals, it must be possible for SOLG to achieve say a 55 year bond rate no worse than 5% if that was their chosen route...
As to payment, Alpala is fully funded to start of development; production starts 4 years after that.
Assuming $2 billion streaming finance, leaves say $1 billion debt finance to include interest rolled up for say 5 years, amounting to, say $300 million (added to $2.7 billion development finance).
That seems doable.
But well before 2025, SOLG could have streaming finance lined up on porvenir, Rio, La Hueca, Blanca, w.h.y....
The point is that Ingo and NM believe financing is doable and again to would be far easier to achieve in a JV with a major...
I guess the reason offtake/streaming is more expensive is exactly because you are paying in the future and not paying anything upfront, and paying up front is what I am struggling to see Solg doing.
I'm not convinced there is a huge market, if any, for ultra high yield zero coupon bonds. Also that is again pushing the problem down the road as it involves paying it all at maturity... basically the number of claims on the revenues once production started would be such that the return to Solg itself would be so reduced or delayed that you question if it would actually be worth taking it to production anyway, with all the associated risk.
What you don't want is for Alpala to go from being the flagship project that Solg was riding high on, to becoming the albatross around its neck that sinks it and takes all the value from the other targets down with it.
Anyway, I guess we will find out in due course if Ingo works his magic...
Post from JL on 'the other side...' makes a good point...
"Alpala & Porvenir could be making $500m PBT each yr. From the conceptual figures, it was much higher just for Alpala alone but due to Canadian laws, those figures had to be removed due to TSX listing. They were in previous presentation but removed and wiped out."
Surely sooner or later these numbers have to assert themselves...
I do, however, get the fundamental point about domains (GGP OZ and SOLG Ecuador)...
Everlong - of course it is...Solg should (in theory) blow GGP's find - out of the water (though GGP holders (of which I am one) would argue over that)). So why haven't Solg's true colours shone through and gripped the market, methinks? I posted over there recently: "...makes me wonder what the catalysts are for such progress? Top of the list (IMO) is a user friendly country, next is a user friendly and interactive company (GGP/GH). third...their PR machine and last but certainly not least: an aggressive and respected major onboard from the onset..." IE: do any or all of the following hold Solg back: Ecuador NM (as a PR machine) lack of news reporting (although there was a flurry recently - where's that gone now). No JV with a Major from the onset.
Why is GGP a Billion POUND company after such a short time and Solg (who could potentially blitz them) not? [After 7 long years]. Z
I don't disagree with most of what you have just stated addicknt, as you are correct and have never run a company. I don't think any company I would run, would be successful, as I am not made that way. ( no bad thing to be aware of one's weaknesses ). I also agree that this will be hard to defend against a high offer, and I think we would both agree, that it would be easy to defend against a low ball offer, for the reasons I have stated many times. ( sorry the 50 pence mob will be upset with that comment ) Not so sure on your comment on why you would consider the diverse book to be a weakness rather than a strength, when you look at how it's arranged. Maybe I could ask you to expand on that point, so I can better understand your argument.
Thank you Miagi, it's mild dyslexia, and hasn't held me back in life, apart from report writing, which I was called upon to do more often than I would have wished. I had colleagues that would sanity check what I wrote, and amend, while not distracting from the content of meaning. I like being retired, as although many aspects of the job I loved, the report writing wasn't one of them. The worst part is I use words in the wrong context, it's not bad when I talk, but my friends can notice it, and just let it go.
Q, and still no answer to the key question - the one that changes absolutely everything. In a sense, it's a pity you've never run a company, if you had you'd have a much better understanding of the dynamics and thought processes. NM and the team aren't sitting around the table saying 'oh well, it hasn't happened so far and as long as will keep saying we're going to production, it never will'. Part of what they will be doing will be considering the real threat the 'diverse' register poses. You know, the same 'diverse' register which you feel is a great asset, whereas it's actually a huge weakness. I think virtually the only thing you and I agree upon is that this company is worth a great deal more than the current market cap and that NM has done a superb job in getting us to the position of being a hugely attractive target.