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11.04p 🚀🚀🚀🍾🍾🍾🎉🎉🎉
ONWARDS AND UPWARDS
Fort, love it when you start your 50000000 word posts, with the words
"I THINK"
I then no, there won't be one iota of fact or anything based on evidence to back it up.
So it saves me 30 minutes plowing through it
I think there are quite a few bigger players awaiting the winner of the run offs. It's not just a question of who wins as we know both are pro mining. It's more about how Ecuador comes out of it. For instance, if Correa's canidate loses, will it be accpeted and peaceful or will Correa's posse do a Donald Trump? I guess what most are keen for is a smooth transition from Lasso to the new man or lady. Furthermore, the assembly seats are crucial so any majority for either candidate has to be represented in assembly too if they are to lead with power. That all said, the reality is the winner will have just 18 monoths to prove themselves and win over future voters as Ecuador goes into elections again in early 2025. I don't think the latter will concern any buyers as exampled by the Chinese who have seen multiple presidents and governments in their time with Mirador.
So, in around 5 to 6 days we should have another major risk hurdle jumped. If the sp is around 10p levels next week then we really are open season to low balls. The risks keep diminishing yet the sp remains low. This becomes more attractive to buyers and would be partners.
Put yourself in BHP's shoes... which of the following would you do?
1. Wait until SOLG reveals PFS update in Q1 2023 and then make a move or just sit it out further awaiting someone else to make first move. This runs risk of a recovering share price and better sentiment into Q1 24.
2. Try and strike when SOLG is at it's weakest/ poor sentiment going into the AGM period. Eg... post elections...sometime in early November table a low ball offer and cite weak management, unclear direction and the usual... presenting shareholders with an offer that gives premium but also an exit from company in distress with limited funds etc etc
3. Try and create instability with shareholders and management and seek to get directors removed / resolutions voted down at AGM (they tried and failed to some extent when they last took this route).
Putting BHP aside, any other interested party must surely be thinking there is a window of opportunity right now to make a bid but obviously having election risk out of the way makes sense. We know Ecuador gov are keen to see Cascabel moving faster so I don't think SOLG are better placed than a Super major to get the remaining permits/red tape signed off. That's nonsense. I think Ecuador gov would take any steps that a super major asks of them especially if they are looking to cement their presidency ahead of Feb 2025.
Mmm.
Over to the derampers to offer up loads of negatives to everything.
Or the Steve Gerrard that tripped over the ball and threw the title away to Chelsea?
Still one of my favourite moments ever in football
As a very very LTH I have to say it's not a share for the faint hearted......hold on to your shares and good luck to us all.....especially those of us who have been here for over 10 years and are keeping tbe faith.....
Shussss novice... you'll have orphern doom reeper copper posting all day.
Hats off to the derampers and bashers... it's been a heavily weighted first half and I'd say they are leading 3-0 at the moment. Can Scott, Bob and Maxit deliver a Stevie Gerrard type second half... and secure the trophy for the bulls?
Talk across markets of Chinese about to kick off stimulus plans. This usually results in similar actions across EU/UK and US. So potentially light at end of tunnel as risk assets usually do very well in stimulated markets. Still some way to go but if rate hikes are almost done, then market will be forward thinking and start pricing in H2 24 into H1 24. And that bodes well for SOLG as we need lower interest rates and lower inflation to make the PFS shine and even then buyers will be looking toward better times ahead so likely to strike a bid in Q1 rather than wait for a better recovered SOLG in H2.
Wow could we be hitting the dizzying heights of 11p soon 🚀🚀🚀
Adikt. your 0659 post.
"Although all the right noises have been made, Ecuador must still count as being risky."
that's one of your better conclusions, no one would of thought of that.
must post, must post, must post.
I will be noticed
As a fellow poster said to me last night, it's odd that the directors were given the go-ahead to buy shares when we know various non-disclosure agreements are in place and people are accessing the data room.
It used to be the case that the Stock Exchange would, in very special circumstances, allow director purchases in a closed period, but it wasn't easy to get them to do so. I don't know if this dispensation option is still available.
It has also allowed them:
- to give all parties access to a data room
- to buy time and advance permits.
- allowed third parties circa 12-18 months to complete their DD
All is required to do now is to inform all parties that they seek offers and proposals on or before 30 November 2023.
Orthern - that is wrong and BS.
DD has been going on for a long long time...
They can monetize this by putting an end date on the strategic review. SC knows this hence he bought some more shares before he is not able too anymore.
They are now left trying to show they have a credible route forward, as no near term monetisation deal is in play or being discussed… evidenced by Scott being able to purchase shares to signal his confidence
You may well be right Jezzoo. They seem in no rush to produce any deal Solg clearly need to continue… hence the pivot from fast and smart monetisations to new PFS and mine plan adjustments
As I've been saying for the last two years, the most likely outcome here is the vultures fighting over the emaciated corpse of SOLG after time and day to day costs finally kill it stone dead.
Probably because they are hacked off that they are continually wrong in their theories and thye doesn’t like anyone that poses a question that might have a negative connotation because they are over leveraged.
You are absolutely right though, solgs destiny is uncertain because as you say it isnt really in their control as they aren’t big enough or have enough cash to do as they wish.
Someone mentioned bhp made an offer many years ago for 70% of ensa, if Mather had not been so arrogant and took the offer I don’t think Solg would be struggling now, but Mather thought it was worth multiple of what bhp paid.
Fort, why start your post with a veiled insult? It does you no favours.
My initial post was simply posing a few questions and was inviting people's opinions.
I should add, I am unsure of the dynamic between BHP and Newmont. Quite a few aussie firms don't like BHP very much so you never know... there might be an aussie ego thing to add to the mix. Newmont might well turn out to have sticky shares if it means BHP has to pay alot more. Remember Twiggy and the way he knocked BHP out of the Noront game and sent them packing.
Addicknt, if you use your common sense then I think you'll soon get to a more plausible conclusion re Newmont. Firstly, there's quite a few folk out there all saying a sale within the next 6 months. And if there is not a sale ... then there is surely a fund raiser. Both of those events potentially give Newmont an exit or a larger entry. I don't think they'll be in any rush. They have significant interests still their gold prepay credit facility on Fruta del Norte of which I think Lundin has already paid a 3rd off. They have other interests in Ecuador and on the whole, I'd Say SOLG is minor compared to their other stuff.
I think they are more likely to sit on SOLG holding and await the Q1/Q2 24 before making a move. If they were offered 45p a share I think they'd sell out. They wouldn't be able to sell out 300m shares in the open market without it taking at least 8 months+. I think when Blackrock exited, they ditched a 5% interest and it took well over 6 months to get through open market and even then I think that was with help of Chinese taking 1%+ of that.
Newcrest will be like the rest of to some extent in that it may as well wait until Q1 24 and see what Bob / Maxit deliver on deals. Then again, it might just be a case of them taking a call and provisionally pledging their shares to BHP so their acquisitions team can plan in advance??
Q, one other point. You say we are in charge of our own destiny - we most certainly are not.
The only way we could fit that description is if we currently had several billions of dollars in our bank account and all of the required approvals. Sadly, we do not.
Copper you’re slowly falling or have fallen into the trap of nal posts therefore they exist! They are a faceless spineless anonymous poster with nothing better to do than antagonise anyone who will bite I’m not asking you to filter or anything but just ignore or play along 😉 I know who I would like behind me if I was in trouble and it certainly wouldn’t be a faceless spineless coward like nal now carry on posting and forget about nal I think pretty much everyone else ignores them now 🤡
Oh BTW… 55p by Friday soon and I absolutely mean it
ONWARDS AND UPWARDS!!!
The 🦜 must be on early half term!
Lots of green boxes 📦
Just think how bad it must be to live in the same house! Chr!st on a bike!
Now a real 🦜 are great to have around the house and probably of more use.
GLA real long term investors. Nice to see directors making a small purchase.
That wasn't the point I was making. I was suggesting that it may have an effect on our future direction, which seems pretty obvious to me.
For example, a sale to BHP would signal BHP's intentions, likewise the Chinese. Short of buying the shares ourselves, there's nothing our management can do to determine what happens with the shares.
Newmont can change something. If they decide to sell their solg shares, say on the open market, that would kill the solg SP. They have that power for change. Let us hope that they have a positive view of Ecuador.
What I am saying addicknt is it doesn't matter what they do with their stake.
The diverse book means Solgold are in charge of their own destiny.
Newmont cannot change anything.