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1984...I'm sorry but you don't get it...
Goverment debt has to be funded through the Gilt Market...that has little to do with current rates which have been dictated by burgeoning inflation.
And yes that is coming down fast. We may have already had the last BoE rise...if not there is just one more...
But the short Gilt market is saying interest rates will average at least 4.5% for the next 2/3 years.
But the long end has risen dramatically...the 30 year Gilt, which is not impacted at all, has risen from 3.5% to 5% in just one year.
Why?
Because the massive increase in Govwernment Debt since 2008 has to be funded.
And who buys it?
Not you or i, but Pension Funds and Life Assurance companies.
So if, as you say, "You certainly don’t find it by borrowing more at higher rates..." please tell me where the money will come form if not from higher taxes...
And if the Government goes bust, so do the Pension and Life Funds and we will have an Equitable Life collaps on an economy wide scale...
So please suspend your political agenda. I'm certainly not saying I WANT higher interest rates...it is simple economics...
And Keir Starmer will only increase borrowing and therefore interest rates even further, based on Labour's uncosted programme.
Of course I agree we need greater prosperity to pay more (but not higher) taxes to fund the gaps.
Your prescription is to drop interest rates to zero, but what did that produce?
A nation of overborrowed mortgagees and fat stock market profits for the rich on both sides of the Atlantic.
Please reflect...I am the eternal optimist, but climate change and the stark realities of unfunded government commitments, such as the NHS, Benefits and Pensions seriously worry me...and its my children and grandchildren who will pay.
I love this country but we've been a second rate nation and declining economy for at least 20 years...
I’m not so sure that will happen under Starmer…………Corbyn and his cronies definitely.
Totally agree Tesla, there seems to be limitless money for helping anybody but our own people.
I didn’t live through the 70s but wise people have told me how bad it was with power cuts, inflation, then a labour government moving taxes through the roof.
We saw a wealth and brain drain then and I think we see it again under the next labour government.
You can’t tax yourself into prosperity
1984
We give too much to people who don’t want to work, but thanks to the likes of Gary Lineker tweeting, what a Pratt, stuff about migrants etc everyone thinks it’s great to let them in and we all pay for. Very generous of you Gary giving up a room in your squillion pound mansion are you also giving your house guest free private medical and dentist treatment, thought not so everyone else who has paid their taxes for the last however many years can’t see a dentist or doctor unless they go private.
The system is broken, we pay too much already in welfare but let’s let however many more thousands in to clog it up even more…..
When you have people in court getting free interpreters, paid for by the tax payer, telling the interpreter their interpretations are wrong, because they have lived here for 15 years, you know this country has lost the plot.
This happens regularly in court……..
Adikt, temporarily unfiltered me. Hahahaha, do you seriously think anyone believes you.
I nearly wet myself.
Your perceived superiority and font of all knowledge, has once again been shown to be sadly lacking, it's made you delusional.
Accept your post was ridiculous and move on.
When fort and novice are the only ones to support your tripe, it's maybe time to admit the games up.
People are sick of your things have changed, we're on the cusp of something big, tripe
Autobots much quietr today, but largely buying...
So what on earth was going on yesterdayyyand on whose behalf...?
Well the answer is you don’t fund all that ruinous spending, it was never maintainable in the first place. You certainly don’t find it by borrowing more at higher rates so that even more tax pounds just pay interest and go to waste.
That is another reason rates will crater, the government could quite literally be bust.
Inflation always was transitory, it’s almost washed through. All that raising rates has done is ensured a monumental crash and we’re almost in the eye of the storm now
We must close our borders and cut our cloth
Based on BSC's exit, it's possible that 50m shares got washed through market. Volume as you say has been high so looks like BSC are done now but often there's a small period of overhang where some tidy is required. I reckon the SP was trashed from around 13.5p levels, so quite remarkable to see it test the 7's based on a forced seller of no more than 1.4% holding. Need to account for traders and the overleveraged too as often they are victims to a large seller as get caught on wrong side of it. That compounds things further.
Yesterday, Morningstar data showed almost zero movements across fund managers and ii's on SOLG in month of October. So it appears it was all down to BSC. However, there are some II's not on that data like Norges and due to the fact they are sub 3% notifiable interest... it's hard to tell whether they too have been selling. That's the only real large unknown holder out there as far as I can see. They were active buyers when the price was 35p last year, so selling at these levels makes little sense especially when this story looks odds on to end very soon with a transaction or deal of some sort. They may as well hang in there.
The weird one is the XIB short. BSC unexpected heavy handed selling surely offered them a fab chance to buy back 15m shares and bank a whopping 12p+ a share. Instead, they have stayed put unless of course they have failed to update market on short position. That happens more often than you think these days.
Well done add, fort the price has already started moving north !! i guess this BB was just unlucky 😉
What arrogance 1984...we're not rich!
My weekly energy costs are approaching £100
We are hving to subsidise two children to buy an aparment each
I've lived and worked through the 1970s, as well as every economic crisis since.
I have posted an honest opinion, not an uncaring prescription.
I am being realistic. US and UK debt have exploded since 2008.
In the US from 10 trillion to 31 trillion!
In the UK from 745billion to 2.372 trillion.
How do you fund the annual borrowing and the renewals at zero% without a Gilt market strike, as is likely to happen in the US imminently.
I care passionately, which is why I immediately swapped my AMG GTS for a hybrid as soon as I got back from Greenland.
I was chait of a major University Alumni and the average debt students leave University with is £55k.
We have a massive NHS, Care, Childcare and Child protection and asylum seeker bills to fund ( the latter running at £3.7 BILLION last year.
Of course I care...I give a significant amount to NSPCC every year...and I'm worried, because the books can't be blanced without higher inflation than we have been used to, leading to higher tax payments...and a prevailing level of interest rates higher than we have had the luxury of for 10 years or more.
Stating the stark reality is not a prescription. Its just as scary for me as for you.
And thats why I'm looking for one last SOLG payday to secure our and our childrens' and grandchildrens' futures...
You're a kind man. When they think they have no audience.. they move on and start to address the true source of their anger which ultimately starts with taking responsibility for their own actions and not blaming others.
Fort, you're quite right - curiosity got the better of me. He's back on filter now.
Addicknt,
never unfilter posters... it's like the signs on zoo's that say to visitors ... do not enter the cage... do not feed the animals... yet youtube is full of video's of people ending up in zoo cages and having their hands bitten off.
I thought you were smart enough to realise that.
They crave a response. They literally bash their hands on their heads and scream like babaies when no one responds to them. They then rant more and more craving attention and wanting someone to interact with them. If you filter and ignore etc then they end up going away but usually they create a new alias and try again unfortunately.
You are doing them a favour by filtering them as they clearly need help with mental health. These BB's make them feel empowered and just fuel their illness.
Be kind... put them in the bid for their own sakes.
As I've mentioned before, Jiangxi could buy many more shares through Valuestone before they reach their 3% threshold.
They don't have to be consolidated as they are a separate entity.
Meanwhile, Jiangxi could have a current running order in the market that is not yet filled.
Looking at the volumes when they went from 5%+ to 6%+ they could have been buying for almost a month, during which the SP went from 16.2 to 19.2...
Whats different now is that they and Valuestone could have been mopping up the Berry Street shares since mid October...
So supposing they announce a stake over 7% now. If that doesn't declare their intentions, I don't know what does.
"Jiangxi Copper Company Limited was formed by parent Jiangxi Copper Corporation, which is owned by the Chinese government, in 1997...."
They are the largest copper company in China by MCap:
https://disfold.com/china/industry/copper/companies/
So if they suddenly had, say 3.9% through Valuestone and 7.9% themselves, making 11.8%, BHP and Newmont would hve to make a decision...
They have $3 billion dollars cash in hand and and annual Gross Revenues of $70 billion...
So why are they here and why have they already bought almost 200 million shares (that we know about) for a mere $40 million...
There is absolutely no sense in their buying this as an investment, but if they did, they certainly wouldn't sell for less than 17p and surely far more given that a major competitor would likely snap them up...
So I say again...we need a TR1...146 million shares have changed hands since mid October, at an average of 11.2 million a day...thats SEVEN times the daily average from the beginning of August to the end of September...
So don't tell me theres nothing going on...
Nal, I've unfiltered you temporarily because I wanted to see what pearls of wisdom seeped from that mush between your ears.
"moved the goal posts" ?? What does that even refer to? You clearly have never been to an agm, nor are you familiar with the stats relating to how many people actually attend. Clue: As a percentage it's tiny. The same applies to to the numbers of people who ask questions. This is one of the excuses many companies are using in their efforts to do away with physical meetings. Their rationale is that because so few do attend, there's no point holding them. This is of course, merely a ruse to avoid having to answer to shareholders - a process very few chairman and CEOs enjoy, particularly when things are going badly.
The weirdest about your illiterate ramblings is that you spend hours every day ranting about how useless the management are, and yet when an idea is suggested to increase accountability you start ranting away like a deranged baboon with a firework up its backside.
And because I've unfiltered you I've just had a quick look at some of posts over the past few days. Hilariously one of them completed misunderstood what had been said earlier in the thread and in your follow-up post you contradicted yourself again. The fact is, you are incapable of following an argument; you are completely unaware of the meaning of people's posts and you contradict yourself continually. You may be proud of your ignorance, but it doesn't half make you look stupid.
Red,
Agree about interest rates, even 3% might be a luxury, useless government and incompetence on most things they try, blown billions on half c*cked idea’s
Anyway, gold will be getting over $2000 dollars soon and much more
Have a peep at this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xK-U2f1Cw5A
Atb
Completely wrong red. Without being rude it’s the likes of you and Quady who are already retired who don’t see the strain on normal households that high rates are causing as more and more peoples fixed rates end.
It doesn’t matter what “traditional” rates were, you could buy a house for 3x a salary back then, now it’s 5,6 or even 7
With literally no hope of growth, we are doomed for Japan style lost decades and zero rates
I will hang my hat on it, zero or even negative by next autumn.
Interest rates will not drop in the UK below 3% for several years, if ever.
They were dropped too low because of COVID and threats to the Financial system.
I think the inflation target could be raised to 3%. It gives an illusion of growth and allows the BoE to shrink the real value of debt...repaying in inflated future tax receipts...
Last AGM
Mather 63.8%
Clare 57.55
Scotty 65.98
Dan 61.19
All of them could be toast...
Adikt, why do you move the goal posts, every time
Your theories and crackpot ideas are shown to be flawed.
How on earth do you know how many will want to ask questions.
As usual. Don't let facts get in the way.
Broadly agree Tesla1.
Angela Rayner has got a potty mouth and often engaging it without forethought.
However much to my surprise she gave the best speech out of all the conferences.
Starmer and Sunak were at most luke warm.
Hunt's speech on the economy was pathetic, mainly it was I have no ideas and wait for the November budget.
Also who the hell thought it was a good idea to go to Manchester and announce the scraping of HS2.
The most important infrastructure project this country needs, along with a transport system to get water from the west of the country to the east.
Would stop water shortages for decades to come.
Well known for those that look into these things.
I get your point on voting Labour.
As have never voted Labour in my life.
I have mainly voted Conservative once liberal democrat and occasionally an independent.
Voted for the greens on a local election once to send a message to our local conservative council who were making it impossible to park near the local shops and were killing the high street.
Enough of us did it and although they got in with a reduced majority, it was enough for them to reverse the parking restrictions.
Ha Orthern the irony
Have no problem with Italian posting whatever he likes at least it’s thought out. However I don’t agree
Can touch $4700 , …….,,
Totally clueless as usual, metals in the ground contribute no income to Solg currently and they have no strategy to monetise that either……..
Give it up with the Noront analogy, Noront may as well be a tech company the fundamentals of each company are so different…….
Morning Quady
1984 does let himself down sometimes and does have some very forthright views but some of the content I think isn’t too bad. There are too many keyboard warriors around these days and unfortunately that’s the way gen z is going.
Just been reading about F1 in mexico and how they are trying to educate people spectating to be more tolerant on social media. Apart from a Perez fan attacking a group of Ferrari fans it seems to have worked.
Regarding your other points I agree with a lot of it but I think rates will drop it needed to be managed better, raising rates 14 consecutive times when a rise takes 12-18 months to take effect was freaking nuts, no wonder they will instigate a recession.
Ironically Boris’ success has been the torques ultimate undoing, too many egos within a huge party which has led to a stalemate and infighting, at least Corbyn has gone, small mercies, they just need to get rid of Rayner and then it might not be too bad……
Not sure I can vote labour though, may have to vote green but that’s a wasted vote really………