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As I see it, the phased PFS and IPA are the key deliverables. Get them boxed off in Q1 and we'll be in a good position.
That aside commodity prices are the other key variable. If we see any sort of material movement to the upside that will lift the SP and in turn that could prompt a suitor.
You old Pessimist, with all the right arguments, he, he, he!!! Time will tell but note your excellent points.
Such a fluid world and market at the moment. All just speculation.
Would be helpful what the present Government's role is in all of this!!!!!!
GLA
Can we have some justification from you Eloro as to why a sale won't happen in 2024?
It isn't as simple as voting them back in at the 2024 AGM. If they haven't achieved anything significant throughout the year they'll be relying on their own shares and a few valued supporters to keep them afloat.
If, however, they tick off a number of material deliverables then I think there will be a case to be made for giving them further runway.
But all that said, still don't know why you remain fixated on AGMs. I'm sensing a change in your outlook in recent weeks. All this stuff about proudly projecting your voting decisions being confidential (like anyone cares) and now this. It's all a bit disturbing.
Elor, no evidence there was a sell-off in Canada. In fact, as ever, there has been a very low volume of trades.
Eloro, I didn’t state a sale will not happen in 2024… just not in the immediate future.. the recent couple of pence jump, in my view, doesn’t mean a sale is imminent… that is just Investors desperate over speculation during Christmas..
A Monetisation event could occur, but I just doubt it will occur any time soon.. we can’t force a major to buy us… just as you can’t convince a buyer to buy your house without offering a huge discount.. after they show interest… maybe that’s why management have shown no effort to improve the share price???
So, I am not the only one who doesn't expect a sale to occur during 2024?!
I wonder what justifications the pundits will put forward this time for us to vote the BOD back in at the 2024 AGM?
Tax year in Canada is January to December. Hence, selling would have been Canadian.
That’s a pretty accurate summation there Rcgl…
It’s been the worst kept secret for too long that Cascabel is available… but here we are, still waiting, still hoping..
We are like the distressed seller of a decent house… every buyer knows we have nothing else going on and need funds… know we can’t afford to keep it.. know we don’t have the expertise to develop it.. We will never get full value unless the miracle of a bidding war happens.
Every major knows we have thrown our cards in and are desperately seeking a way to monetise what we have, after all the years of bluff and poor management have failed to get us anywhere.
Our best hope here is for interest rates to fall quickly and considerably, to make the projects questionable finances more attractive..
A sale is not on any immediate horizon in my view.. and jumps in price, currently just 2-3 pence here and there are just caused by low volume and PI Christmas boredom in my opinion.
My concern is if, when the updated PFS is released, the finances are improved, mainly by using a higher metals price to massage through a higher IRR, rather than true project efficiencies, I can see this dragging on much further… well in to 2025 even… The markets and wider mining industry players will not be impressed, or rush in to buying the asset, and our share price will not move anywhere from single figures.
Notmuchmoney,
the US tax year is the same as the calendar year, that's all.
NMM, indeed. What the table does show is that Cascabel is the third largest deposit without a problem.
However, I think that's a bit simplistic, as we still have a number of approvals outstanding. Also, from our point of view the IPA is a "must have" and I'd rather hoped it would have been signed-off before the year end. What we do know is that we have government and local support...if only they'd move a bit faster!
Agree addicknt. Although there are a number of others with no notes, or disputes, so not only Cascabel that is 'ok'.
An interesting comparison is to Neuva Union in Chile (0.37%, 16.7Mt Cu; vs. Cascabel 0.33%, 12.7Mt Cu).
Comment for Neuva Union is "Economic Viability Uncertain". Obviously potentially many differences (e.g. excludes value of Cascabel's Gold and Silver, relative depth and complexity, fiscal regimes etc.). Shows the importance of the revised PFS clearly showing it is viable, reduced capex and risk.
"It is going to dawn on them There’s a metal shortage shortly after it dawns on them they need to slash interest rates and you will see a feeding frenzy for assets
I think Jiangxi are smart enough to move before this"
Given the luxury of time (which we don't have) I guess it would be better to sell Cascabel into the feeding frenzy for assets, rather than to the canny early bird who wants to secure the asset before the frenzy kicks off.
Isn't this the constant problem for Solg management in that they have always wanted to sell, and we have always known that selling it was the number one aim. But it's a lot easier to get a high price for it in a hot frenzied market than it is trying to get a decent price from any party in a depressed commodity M&A market where there is not much competition.
And since they properly defined Alpala/Cascabel, this resource M&A frenzy keeps failing to materialize, which means they keep needing to try to hold out a bit longer and a bit longer for it. But holding out longer means they have to keep developing the asset (for quite a while under the pretense/delusion that they were going to construct it), which means more and more fundraises, which means more dilution, which leads to alternatives like royalty deals, which makes the asset less attractive to acquirors and irritates the current major shareholders, who then cause trouble etc etc...
I guess spinning it out waiting for the hot market is a double edged sword in that you hope to sell into a much better market, but you slowly paint yourself into a corner and risk delivering yourself on a plate to the majors at a bargain price and wiping out most of the other shareholders. I think the CGP team, Sangha and co realised Solg had been playing this game long enough and were in danger of hashing the whole thing up, and managed to convince Mather that enough was enough. To paraphrase Warren Irwin, let's try to get our decent chunk of dough out now so we can go and put it to work in lots of other attractive looking assets (before the next resource frenzy really kicks off).
BTW this is just a bit of a thinking out loud ramble. I'm still hoping they can pull off a blinder and extract a decent price from Jiangxi or whoever and the early bird discount won't be to steep.
Could someone please explain to me why some investors would want to book tax losses at the end of a calendar year (rather than tax year)?
Would this be US/Canadian investors, for example?
Wary I've missed a (potentially very large!) trick.
DBW, as far as I could see the table doesn't reveal any problems with Cascabel, unlike all the others.
Booking year end tax losses...
Heres to an excitingJanuary/1st Quarter...
If I remember correctly, wasn't Lasso supposed to sign off some doc for solg before he left office? What happened there?
This endless waiting would test even the patience of Job! I am comforted that the specials did not get approved. Hence, I think Scott got the message that he needs to get a move on.
You don't enlightening , you're a know all. Have a day off eh.
Morning Schlem
I think that’s the plan ….. let’s hope they can pull it off
In a thinly traded market DMA players can feck around with the price, with impunity and without sanction
SOLG and Mather need to sell the whole shebang
The very fact he's still posting is mad- seemingly either doesn't understand the depths of his own stupidity or is comfortable with them. The same guy who doesn't know what his thermometer measures expects people to listen to his contradictory ramblings?
How's your homework, slug? Got any data for us? You said it would be a week over a week ago - are we to assume the penny is finally dropping with you?
So Jiangxi are smart but also knee-jerky?
I think I've got it.
1984 totally agree re Jiangxi
Saw this table earlier re some of the biggest copper projects in the world and the difficulties they’re having developing them.
Cascabel less impacted than many
https://twitter.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1740432436042060192?s=46&t=XX3-iZapJ1HaXMFlnE7nKQ
Is it the green box galah back? Asking for a friend.
It’s just yesterday the green box galah kept disappearing into thin air! Thought I wouldn’t get another chance to poke it with a 💩 stick .
HNY and let’s get this 💩 sold!
Covgas. Your earlier post.
"Eloro you're genius , who would ever have guessed it would retrace after a 37% rise? Well done."
To answer your question
Bbg, rk, padmaster and one ore two other clowns didn't see it retracing. They wet themselves with excitement.
On another notr you told us,
"We can all see what's going on"
Please enlighten me. I must of missed something
I see why you think that and it’s totally rational, however I believe the same short termism/knee jerk culture that is disabling the west recently will be the avenue to an earlier bid.
It is going to dawn on them There’s a metal shortage shortly after it dawns on them they need to slash interest rates and you will see a feeding frenzy for assets
I think Jiangxi are smart enough to move before this