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Posted this link before, but this has some statistics about copper M&A deals for projects in different stages. 3-6c seems a reasonable assumption in our case.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/copper-ma-2022-metrics-peak-on-green-energy-push
The metal mix is better at Alpala and it's Tier1 (so derisked albeit block cave etc) so don't think you can apply a direct read across. That said, Solaris assets are closer to infrastructure / existing mines and that carries some weight.
All in all, I think most expect the first offer to land in the early 30's. I can't see BHP letting it go for that nor any other interested parties. Whilst I would like to gain 100p for the lock stock and barrel, I think 70p is likely to be the highest achieveable now that we have 3bln shares in issue.
I'd take 70p a share but would be reluctant at anything less than 55p.
If the fair price, at the exploration stage is therefore around 4.1% of resource (not my 12.7%, ouch!), I can see why no buyers come out in the open. Solg made it clear over many years that they do not intend to sell at these levels, which makes me worry that after all they might try to advance the project to achieve at least a feasibility (8-9%) or development (10-20%) kind of valuation.
We might be here a bit longer in that case, sorry to even think about it...
Sorry one mistake i can see, the Solgold calculation is for Alpala only and NOT cascabel, so you can add Tandy onto it and if you want to add Porvenir to it, we come to a total of 17.6 MT CU eq @ between $0.03 to $0.06 in the ground value we get to arrange between 39p to 60p per share
There is that 30p point which I will gladly sell up and exit Solgold….
Mog, obviously I cannot trust myself with numbers! Perhaps I should stop pretending that I know what I am doing when I play with money.....
I'll try, a quick look at the figures for Warintza
Indicated = 3.45 CuEq
Inferred = 4.17 CuEq
for a 15% stake in this for $130M Canadian Dollors
which equates to approx $866M for 100%
Or $113M (cad) per 1MT CuEq
Cascabel (only)
Measured + Indicated 14MT CuEq
Inferred = 1.7MT CuEq
based on $113 M per 1MT cuEq
$1.7B Cad = £1.047B
3B shares approx 33p
This excludes all other resources
I tried a very quick and very very dirty calculation taking into account also the 107mn inferred tonnes (see article https://www.mining.com/zijin-mining-invests-97-million-in-solaris-resources-for-a-15-stake/)
If I am not too far off, the ballpark is that Zijin paid around 12.7% of the total resource. You guys should run the numbers and share what you get.
Now, if I apply the same value to the SOLG resource as of the last official statement, I get a very ambitious but not entirely unattainable price of 102p.
Nowadays even a third of that would be something as far as I am concerned.
Separately, not sure if you saw but I thanked you and addicknt for the updates on lack of replies from SOLG re: IPA/Govt relationship.
The posts didn't last long as whole threads have been removed due to the usual disruption here.
But, thanks again...
Still holding Bozi, so haven't lost anything, yet. I think I am no worse off than other PIs who invested here expecting a sale. Aren't you holding solg in the expectation of a sale?
Hi TheItalian
"Did anyone here calculated by proxy what our valuation would be based on the Solaris transaction?"
Not that I've seen. I suspect the poster who likes to make unsupported statements as post titles has no idea on the readacross to a SOLG valuation.
I will make an attempt if I find some time, but not too close to the details of Warintza.
A decent article on recent events (apologies if already posted)
https://www.mining.com/web/mining-industry-sees-a-way-to-navigate-narco-crisis-in-ecuador/
Sorry if already discussed. Did anyone here calculated by proxy what our valuation would be based on the Solaris transaction?
Eloro - OK, you can admit it now. Which of Scott's previous companies were you burned on?
Or to put it another way, how many shirts did you lose betting on a takeover last year?
Hi RICHR...in essence I agree with you, but it might attract unwarranted attention...
Mining Executives have been kidnapped and/or murdered in the past...
Come now Fort, you know as well as I do, the only thing which Scott The Rocks Caldwell is successful at is disappointing shareholders!
My gasted will be flabbered if he actually meet any of the pending deliverables on time.
I think they've located the SOLG boardroom
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67940671
Et. Did you not read my post.
I did add myself.!!!!!!!!
What are the chinese prepared to pay for a much large advanced project?
tick tock tick tock
Fort - The strangulation is in place to force a sale.
Clear as day
Needalife Maybe we could call it the 3 stooges and add you 😉
So Sean Tufford was hired to improve communication with retail investors / the broader investor base, but when asked questions that we're keen to have answered, e.g. where is the revised IPA we had hoped to have signed before year end and what is the current relationship like with the new government, he goes silent?
Perhaps we should have a clown of the week award.
bbg is hot favourite. closely followed by needy.
although there are several in the running.
we may even end up with the denier of the week, also winning the clown of the week.
because in his complete denial of anything negative, he has come up with some pretty weird theories.
Just a tickle over 4 weeks now for Scott's much heralded cut down PFS. When's the next M&A out? The last one suggested the firm that signs off the PFS had not been commissioned as yet. That was a while ago now. So they must be chewing over all the data right now or be almost done. Water test works must have been completed back in October at very least. So basically everything would have been in hand long before gangs got into fisty cuffs. So no excuse there for you Scott.
The noose is tightening now to almost max level. SOLG have cash pile evapourating (gone by June)...still serious red tape issues with Ecuador gov to overcome. PFS due. And shareprice rock bottom.
Whoever it is that has a choke on SOLG's share price is not going to let up until SOLG delivers something that forces them too. Come on Scott and Bob et al... pull your finger out... you're making past management teams look superior.