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tnx DBW.
Alberto Acosta Burneo, an analyst at local consultancy Grupo Spurrier, tells BNamericas. "This change reflects that the government wants to accelerate results."
Great input from Red, Lunch, DBW & others this week tks - having far less sector & trading knowledge the posts are really appreciated.
A few wee points I wish to add to the subject:
The PFS covers just 21% of Alpala M&I resources (38% of contained metal) from Cave 1. It has been stated that the infrastructure (shafts/ access/ crushers/ process plant etc, etc) costed in the PFS can be used for further Caves at Alpala (2 more?).
Say for instance 70% of the contained metal @ Alpala can be extracted, this would have a HUGE positive baring on the overall value of Cascabel.
It was also stated that the PFS addendum (which will give up to $1.8 billion in upside opportunities) only covers Cave 1 & Tanday – NOT Caves 2 & 3 @ Alpala.
If you take into account the above points you can literally tear up the PFS & multiply the value of the resource, which the majors will be fully aware of.
This raises the question as to why the full Alpala resource was not measured in a PFS – the answer being time.
Darryl did state that investors just wanted the PFS released in quick time. It is very possible that a major stated that they would look at making an offer, but not until PFS is released (covering their position from shareholders).
This ties in with the poor timing with the release of PFS (over Easter with little media about). It simply may not have mattered a jot as SOLG aware of an imminent bid which would get all investors full attention.
Damers.
Morning DBW, nice read, thanks for posting.
Reshuffle to increase focus on mining
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/analysis/ecuador-cabinet-changes-put-spotlight-on-strategic-sectors
I appreciate that a black swan event might not last for ever...but I also remember the lockdown days that took us to near 10p...I was a buyer there,,,(top up),,,,,Sure there are a few that are seeing a 50% to 90% drop in main indices... I think that's ott but it has to be of concern that the dow is 11.5% down in the last 4 months and the nasdaq 14%...and the FTSE 100 was more or less the same as today in 1999...22 years ago ffs.
and Red I'm investing in PXC which will do Capex (on Paper) paid off in 9 months and Idaho advantage and great exploration prospects ....even SOLG "sister Co."?? ALL with Piedmont funding to production...and an IRR of 194% and growing and Capex capability of being paid off in under a year...sure I'm here too....but with Macro risks.... and better plays....I'm investing in SOLG in a more junior way these days.....yes we could be taken out big style but I think our buyer/s will be very much aware of the "Black swan event" likely ....and will pounce when we're only too glad to get a low ball offer....anything back will be icing....all perception based on a painful year ahead.....and Dow is down 3% today? what if it goes down 2% every day for a month.....sell in may?
Eish yeah my allotment bone dry!!!
Red, thanks you for your in-put today with all those facts and figures (explained!). Put's one's mind at rest why some of us PI's have hung in here through thick and thin. Often, more on a gut feeling, asking ourselves: "Why are so undervalued, is this worth the risk and stress to wait for delivery of a fair sp". Be it forward to production or preferred option, a bid from somebody. Have a Great Weekend off all of you and may we please have some rain soon! Cheers, Eish!
Fantastic end to a tough week there is some real strength in the stock now and hopefully a new base before the next leg up. Don’t waste your time indulging certain posters here. But enjoy the long BH weekend refreshed for Tuesday ; o ))
Hi brickroad...
The mistake I made was to forget that CGP own 15%...
However this still leaves the P/E ratio and P/CF ratios astonishingly low.
And remember, CGP has to pay 15% of the Capex....
The EBITDA and the cashflows are all pretax but net of everything except interest, depreciation and amortisation...and the latter two are paper items as far as cashflow is concerned...
Thank you for your comments and I hope this helps...
Whatever your own conclusions and despite the negatives you may read here and elsewhere, the only reasonable conclusion is that if anyone wants to take over SOLG they will have to pay very much more than 28.7p...
And the suggestion that BHP has an armlock is naive. I also believe that a BHP/NCM J/v...which would be unusual, might only work for Alpala.
And why would another major let them get away with that.
There's a price for everything and I repeatt my opinion that the price for SOLG will have to be between £1 and £2...
Enjoy your weekend.
Red please can you elaborate on “it’s Cascabel”. Have your number also allowed for any Royalties and tax ? Smelter or local taxes in Equador.?
Great weekend, sorry!
Redknight
Thank you for all the effort you've put into your posts and explanations. That's what I joined this board for, to learn more about Solgold, bot schoolyard squabbling.
Have a freak weekend all.
If you're up for a bet I'll take it, if you make it worth my while...
If that makes you feel better...
You never owned any Solg shares. Ever.
You were right Colonel...
1,534,455 at 28.7...
Again more than 30% of the days turnover...
"It's a shame you're only as good as your last prediction. You also missed a lovely opportunity to get in here at 27.5p the other day."
I call selling out @ 39p more of a success with the option to buy back in @ a big discount more of a success, but who's counting?!
Wishful thinking is contagious I see...
"30p + close today, then UPWARDS & ONWARDS from next Tuesday !!! It's coming ; o ))
------
30p + close? Wishful thinking!"
Your words coming back to bite you MassiveRay.
It's a shame you're only as good as your last prediction. You also missed a lovely opportunity to get in here at 27.5p the other day.
Sorry lunch...I thought I'd corrected that...its Cascabel...
I think you, I and Lunch can shake hands as friends Bozi.
Thanks for an honest, objective, enlightening post.
Have a great weekend...
Red...
BTW just to stimulate further posts...redknight and rougepierre are both because I've supported Man U for 65 years...
Yes...through thick and thin...with a season ticket for many years...becuase thats what real supporters do...
Thanks lunch...
Just to point out that the whole of my analysis was b based on EBITDA and cashflows...
And the discount rate is irrelevant to both...
I've been here 6 years ir so and when I make my pile I won't be discounting it back to 2016 at 8%...
I'll be counting the cash pile and wondering what the hell I'm going to do with it...
Probably invest it for an average 6% in solid FTSE stocks and live like a lord for the rest of our days...
A happy self made man...
Cheers
Redknight - I'm not sure your logical conclusion is as logical as you believe it to be.
I'm not overly concerned by what fair value is right now.
My investment case is what fair value will be in 1/2/3/5 years time. 28p or £800m will not be a fair value then, so that makes it a buy now and I've acted accordingly this week.
You need to realise that not everybody is looking for cheapness now and situations of short term high demand to offload into. That may be you but it isn't me.
I don't have a target price. I'll know when it is right to sell and if the story changes fundamentally I will of course need to reassess, as all investors should.
Your offer prognosis may well turn out to be right. It's part of my overall thinking. It simply has to be. Assuming a construction and production route only isn't taking account of all possibilities and misjudges the potential risks with an investment.
I haven't given any consideration as to when I sell in terms of price points. It depends on my interpretation of the price vs the story at any given moment in time. I can't tell you when that will come about. It may be on Monday or it may be in 2 years.
On the whole I think you have misread me whilst taking up your defence. I'm not trading to personal parameters. I buy what I feel are promising stories across the exploration to production spectrum.
So I'll stop there...
And for anyone reading this later today or tomorrow, can `I suggest you goi back and read my two posts at 11.11 and 11.28.
Then you will understand why you are holding SOLG and how exciting it could get...
Or you could read the posts of the guys who implicitly or actually state that SOLG is fairly valued at 28.5p...
Your choice
Have a great weekend...
I have loads of such friends...
None of them had heard of SOLG and more than half still haven't invested...