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You were right Colonel...
1,534,455 at 28.7...
Again more than 30% of the days turnover...
"It's a shame you're only as good as your last prediction. You also missed a lovely opportunity to get in here at 27.5p the other day."
I call selling out @ 39p more of a success with the option to buy back in @ a big discount more of a success, but who's counting?!
Wishful thinking is contagious I see...
"30p + close today, then UPWARDS & ONWARDS from next Tuesday !!! It's coming ; o ))
------
30p + close? Wishful thinking!"
Your words coming back to bite you MassiveRay.
It's a shame you're only as good as your last prediction. You also missed a lovely opportunity to get in here at 27.5p the other day.
Sorry lunch...I thought I'd corrected that...its Cascabel...
I think you, I and Lunch can shake hands as friends Bozi.
Thanks for an honest, objective, enlightening post.
Have a great weekend...
Red...
BTW just to stimulate further posts...redknight and rougepierre are both because I've supported Man U for 65 years...
Yes...through thick and thin...with a season ticket for many years...becuase thats what real supporters do...
Thanks lunch...
Just to point out that the whole of my analysis was b based on EBITDA and cashflows...
And the discount rate is irrelevant to both...
I've been here 6 years ir so and when I make my pile I won't be discounting it back to 2016 at 8%...
I'll be counting the cash pile and wondering what the hell I'm going to do with it...
Probably invest it for an average 6% in solid FTSE stocks and live like a lord for the rest of our days...
A happy self made man...
Cheers
Redknight - I'm not sure your logical conclusion is as logical as you believe it to be.
I'm not overly concerned by what fair value is right now.
My investment case is what fair value will be in 1/2/3/5 years time. 28p or £800m will not be a fair value then, so that makes it a buy now and I've acted accordingly this week.
You need to realise that not everybody is looking for cheapness now and situations of short term high demand to offload into. That may be you but it isn't me.
I don't have a target price. I'll know when it is right to sell and if the story changes fundamentally I will of course need to reassess, as all investors should.
Your offer prognosis may well turn out to be right. It's part of my overall thinking. It simply has to be. Assuming a construction and production route only isn't taking account of all possibilities and misjudges the potential risks with an investment.
I haven't given any consideration as to when I sell in terms of price points. It depends on my interpretation of the price vs the story at any given moment in time. I can't tell you when that will come about. It may be on Monday or it may be in 2 years.
On the whole I think you have misread me whilst taking up your defence. I'm not trading to personal parameters. I buy what I feel are promising stories across the exploration to production spectrum.
So I'll stop there...
And for anyone reading this later today or tomorrow, can `I suggest you goi back and read my two posts at 11.11 and 11.28.
Then you will understand why you are holding SOLG and how exciting it could get...
Or you could read the posts of the guys who implicitly or actually state that SOLG is fairly valued at 28.5p...
Your choice
Have a great weekend...
I have loads of such friends...
None of them had heard of SOLG and more than half still haven't invested...
That last point is fair Colonel...
So at £3.47p I've overestimated by 52p and it should be £295p...
However, this all assumes CGP can stand their 15% of Capex...
Absolutely not going to happen, which is why they are certain there will be a takeover.
In fact looking at their finances and cash resources, they desperately need it and cannot let it run until construction begins...
So you're right Wyloo started with 30% but they still ended up paying a 458% uplift against a bidder that started with zero%...
Oh come on Bozi...
"I plan on holding as long as is necessary."
The logical conclusion of your argument is that SOLG is fairly valued at 28.5p...
So was it fairly valued at 41p on April 12...?
The answer is yes, because any price is the consequence of supply and demand.
You very clearly propose that SOLG is only worth 28.5p to you, otherwise you wouldn't be arguing the way you are and would be buying more.
I am very clear...for me...in a finite period of time...SOLG is worth what the successful bidder is willing to pay...
My analysis suggests that it could be £1.28.5p...or £2.28.5p...or £3.47p...or £7.11p...who knows?
We'll find out when it happens.
Wyloo WAS prepared to pay $1.10...BHP was not...
Cascabel is the most buyable copper/gold Tier 1 asset on the planet.
Anyone who thinks it will survive to the next AGM independent is IMO deluding themselves.
The only questions for anyone reading this are...
What is your target exit price (you have to have one, otherwise why are you here?)
What will you do if the SP gets to that level?
What price do you think a successful bidder would have to pay?
Of course my figures are just as hypothetical as Bozi or Lunch, but...
They've been confirmed by my contact and....at least they give a basis for determining your target price.
If you use Bozi's analysis you should consider selling now and certainly not buy any more, because 28.5p is the correct value for SOLG...
On Noront, they were not well known story prior to their takeover action, so their share price was entitled to be suppressed. They were highly illiquid and not really on any radars whatsoever, hence the widespread surprise.
SolGold however have and continue to be one of the best known development stories of the last decade. Traded on two exchanges with a global presence given the Australian domicility, South American assets and London stock market listing.
Redknight - yes, yes I do.
I plan on holding as long as is necessary.
That is the difference between me (and some others) and you (and plenty of others).
I am looking ahead based on a market valuation upon a construction scenario and you are looking ahead with a buy-out scenario, hence your comment earlier that you "confidently predict the first offer by the end of May".
Be honest RedKnight, what does 28p say to you about what the market thinks? To me it says,
'SolGold are low on cash and will need an injection in the short to medium term to keep boots on the ground on their fantastic portfolio of projects. The PFS showed some robust figures on quite a conservative plan and proved Alpala to be a top developing asset, with further value still to be added. Operations in the regional portfolio have been wound down until further notice which pushes future catalysts into H2'.
If that commentary doesn't point to 28p then I don't know what does.
Cheers mate
Your comments make it all worthwhile...
Lunchmoney, you're not Lowtrawler are you?
They've just devalued my analysis on ADVFN and then start the next post with...
"I am not an investor here and will not be investing here..."
Now THATS disingenuous...
Great post RedKnight-keep posting and ignore any detractors is my advise to you.
Still shell shocked at 25% drop in 2 days.
Like you this to me makes no sense whatsoever.
One day the market will wake up and smell the coffee.
Just wish i knew what was happening behind the scenes.
I hope DC's charm offensive in USA will help us pricewise.
Bozi....the funding is irrelevant unlees you are holding for the next two years...
Do you plan to hold until construction begins...?
Or to production...
Your numbers are just as hypothetical as mine, but at least mine put metrics on what Cascabel could be worth to a bidder.
Your point about the price being higher is just as relevant to why the market is putting no value whatsoever on a takeover right now...
My guess is that the SP is being held back by poor liquidity and low volumes...enabling the MMs to make a turn and keeping a cap in the SP for prospective bidders.
My analysis post a value on the prospective maximum worth of Cascabel to a bidder. This will help determine the outcome if their is a bidding war.
In my experience successful bidders ALMOST ALWAYS end up paying more than they intended for an acquisition especially if there is a bidding war.
Look at Noront.....
In May 2021 the share price was 24 cents....it had never made a profit in 6 years...
By the time the bidding war ended and Wyloo had trumped BHP it was $1.10....thats an uplift of 458%...
Do you think how Noront was going too fund their mining was relevant during this...?
The equivalent for SOLG would be 131p based on today's price...
LunchMoney- I agree with your point of view.
Redknight - you raise some fair points but with all respect you are applying a forward valuation based on economics that we hope will apply in 7 years time.
The market doesn't work like that. If it did, the share price would be the levels you quote right now.
To say the market doesn't care how this is funded is just plain wrong. Funding is the be all and end all for any resource company. Read across any company at pre production and pre construction stage. It's all about the funding and chiefly the debt/equity mix and also the cost of capital.
If the market really valued the takeover prospects of this company short term the share price wouldn't be down 30% in the last 14 days. It wouldn't be 28p. It simply wouldn't be where it is.
It would be 50p, 60p and even 70p in anticipation of bids closer to 100p.
All makes sense to me colonel...
Anyhow...time for a coffee and some glorious spring sunshine...
corporate finance...
I'm not babying the numbers...the numbers are real.
I'm babying the explanation. Not all of us have financial/corporate final experience...
Lunch
I totally accept the integrity of your intentions, but I honestly think hardly anyone on here is expecting to hold for 8 years or more...
However, those who did hold on to ATYM have made a fortune. I have a mate who invested £100,000 and now has almost £400,000...and is earning £25,000 a year from it pre tax...
"But the market needs to know how it can be funded?"
NO.
Only if 'the market' thinks there will not be a takeover bid, but...
In October 2020 SOLG was 'the hottest takeover story in town' and...
Several publications have now talked about a bid in May or June...
Do you think CGP, DGR, Newcrest or Blackrock are holding on for production...?
Lunch...mate...
"it is the financing that is key..."
Only Quady thinks this is going to production...
The financing is irrelevant...the only things that are relevant are:
have you got enough shares and...
Can you hold on until the bidding war starts...
You don't even need to hold on to be paid out by a successful bidder...just sell in the market for cash and buy yourself the car/house/boat/luxury holidays...etc. that you've always wanted...
And for the nervous among you, this is not another Sirius Mineral.
The only thing you should worry about is a 'Black Swan' event that affects all share prices.
In which case only invest what you can afford.
Anything different makes you a trader or, worse still, a gambler...
GLA