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Lunch I disagree, it is poor comms because the SOLG narrative is currently being written by others. Maybe the company is fine with that because the truth is even worse than what is currently being written.
As stated earlier, we're at an impasse and there is no way we can move forward meaningfully with BHP, NCM and Mather all holding the stakes they do, pulling our CEO in opposing directions.
Mather will now be doing everything he can to engineer a bid and a handsome payday for himself and DGR. Let's hope he succeeds.
Quady, cheer us up on a Friday afternoon, some bright thoughts.
I'll get the gloom out the way: I think we are heading to 19p, where we settled for most of 2018. We got used to 25p as the stable price, but that is clearly gone for the time being. I don't think we'll fall below 19p though. It seems to be our natural seabed.
OK, there's the bad news.
Now, if you would, paint me a picture of what happens now - the fundraise, the building of infrastructure, the actual mining, all leading to profits and dividends in the timescale you predict. I'm not going to shoot it down, I'd genuinely like to hear, in your words (not what "the company has told us") the best case scenario if we go down your route.
Sean
Sorry Lunch...in my haste I have strung two things together. I didn't intend to imply the royalty deal was a one off although it is my belief they couldn't repeat it until the final funding package and I think this is where Boliden come in...
For anyone who is till confused, this is the section from the cashbox RNS:
"The Placing structure has been chosen because of its flexibility, reduced timeframe to completion and to minimise the price risk to participants. As a result of the withdrawal of the standard disapplication of pre-emption resolutions following limited shareholder support for the same at the Company's AGM in 2020, the directors of the Company consider the use of a cashbox structure to be in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders as a whole, particularly when combined with the Retail Offer which allows smaller shareholders to participate in the Placing. The Directors have reached this decision in this particular circumstance and after consulting with and taking into account the views or concerns of certain shareholders and receiving external advice. The Company plans to adhere to the Pre-Emption Group Statement of Principles (the "Principles") in respect of the combined size of the Placing and the Retail Offer, limiting the issuance to a maximum of 10% of the Company's existing issued share capital (5% unrestricted + 5% related to specified capital investments). In addition, the Company has taken into account certain other provisions of the Principles in implementing the Placing, in particular as regards prior consultation with shareholders, that the Placing is being undertaken on a soft pre-emptive basis and that the Company's management will be involved in the allocation process. As noted above, the Company has also given consideration to the effect of the Placing on retail shareholders and will enable them to take part in the issuance of new shares by way of the Retail Offer. The use of this financing structure is intended as a one-off."
Lunch, fully agree.
Those who are saying we have approached Boliden or Franco for a deal that got rejected aren't listening to the company. Darryl stated the other day that those deals are back on the table post DFS/BFS.
Sharemarket, that could mean two things. Equity in the project, or equity in the company.
BHP and NCM PR teams are feeding crap to the media in order to try and rattle us small guys.
WE ARE THE BIGGEST GREENFIELD COPPER/GOLD PROJECT IN THE MARKET - WE HAVE NO PROBLEMS WHATSOEVER RECEIVING CASH.
B
Not quite right Fort...just bought 100k for the Mrs at 21.1132p...
Funds in reserve in case of a rights issue...
Dave,
Looking at the mining discovery lifecycle below (link) , one could say we're in the orphan stage.
I would like to hope that we continuing this journey to the next turning point reaching full potential.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/
Try and buy 500k stock in two blocks right now and see what price you are given. You'll be lucky to average near 25p. But nibble away with smaller 50k chunks over a week or so and you might get that 21p price level on 1m stock.
The AFR article last week or week before said that SOLG had tried to raise cash via equity and BHP/NCM said no.
Agree with the sentiments above, this is just p*ss poor communication from SOLG.
The sp is drifting but the volume is pony. It's pi's getting squeezed and some leverage players no doubt. Less than £400k traded today. I could have flipped some stock today and accounted for the entire volume. Important to keep it on context.
If it drops below 20p thats the lowest its been since COVID in April 2020...
Meanwhile the SP continues its drift to 20p or less....
Fort - using the words of Ryan Giggs, that post ' makes me as hard as a totem pole.'
Hi stocky. Well written.
I have said all along that a final price could be £1/2, mainly to satisfy NM and based on things he's implied in the past.
BHP got a bloody nose with Noront and has been publicly called out by the media for not buying OZ as low as $5 in the recent past.
Their M&A team and CEO need a public win...and soon...to placate what must by now be a frustrated Board of Directors..
Biswas is obviously fed up and he stated in 2021 that NCM would now hold their SOLG shares as a strategic investment. He almost certainly doesn't want to put any more cash in unless there is an early resolution, so...
NCM might accept 75p from BHP for their stake; CGP and DGR need a deal; Blackrock have stuck steadfastly to 5%; Norge and Berry Street are in it for a quick buck, so 75p might produce a done deal...
The question then is whether the Board would accept this. It would be hard to justify not accepting a bid almost 250% above the current share price and especially considering they seem to be out of funding options righty now without it impacting the SP...producing an even lower starting point for a bid...
Like you stocky I'm open to thoughts...
It’s clear no major shareholders have sold as our volume is simply pitiful.
Our board need to grow a spine and do what is best for all, it pander to BHP and NC.
I’m no fan of Mather…. But come on Nick… force something to happen.
Excellent posts Fortissimo & Stocky, thank you.
stocky21, very well put. A professional appraisal may I say!
That makes sense Fort but will it then trigger a bid...?
My guess is that:
- As to why Solgold have not provided any formal announcement updates, it is probably because there is nothing to report. EG Confidential negotiations are still pending with no firm outcome.
- Funding is not an issue as NCM (and presumably BHP) is still willing to invest, but via a share issuance .
- Funding via non-share issuance is still possible (eg Franco), but Solgold decided to pay ball with the majors, for now... perhaps this a was poker play to push for a formal bid?
- As a show of good faith to the majors, Solgold have made the recent HR changes. This will allow key parties to work out terms of agreement
- The majors will be hesitant to pull the trigger on a bid on its own as it will kick off a bidding war. So I'm leaning towards the joint bid rumours.
- Due to depressed metal prices, the major may want to put in a bid soon.
- Due to reports of cash in the bank, Solgold would probably also push for Oct/Nov before pulling the trigger on plan B or C funding options. Solgold would have communicated their fair and reasonable timing expectations to the majors. Eg If Solgold has no other choice (bids) then they will have to seek non-share issuances funding options.
- Don't think any major shareholders have sold with the recent price movements due to spooked retail investors and low liquidity. I think once a bid comes in, it could move the share price more than the typical 30% premium for acquisitions. Looking at historical charts with highs of 46 pence (in 2017), if I add 30% to that, I'll place a personal target price close to 60 pence.
This is just layman's opinion only.
Thoughts/feedback?
lunch - it's pretty clear to me and has been for a while now.
NCM and BHP want to force SOLG to do equity raise (using shares) cash box, open offer, rights issue... they don't care... hut they don't want the assets tapped, royalty deals done or anything that does not involved them filling their pockets with cheap SOLG shares.
Now... SOLG have 'tested' the market unlike last time around (so we are led to believe) so NCM and BHP did not support it. Well that's due diligence and governance done and ticked off. Now, SOLG should just get on and sort the Boliden deal and say that after much consultation and discussion with all shareholders we decided to go down the royalty route. We know some shareholders don't like this but we have to do the best for the majority of shareholders and not a select few. If the two largest shareholders want to assert undue influence then they should consider who runs the company and their minority holdings and decide whether they wish to make a full and fair offer for the business or move on.
It's really that simple as there's no way SOLG can please everyone. They have to go with the majority. So do it SOLG and stop being dictated to by these bullies.
Orthern, I completely agree...
If we assume that Ingo and Ayten are bound by NDAs, then the media is getting this information from somewhere else and, given that AFR is Australia based, you would have to further assume it is someone in Oz, part of the company or with a communication line to someone in the company.
Because despite Darryl saying "we tested the market" and from all the things I've pieced to gather on here and on other parts of social media and boards, the following seems to be most likely:
Barrenjoey approached Solgold with a cashbox deal involving one or more new investors.
BHP and Newcrest got wind and found a way to knock that on the head. It could have been something as simple as threatening to sell some shares in the market...it wouldn't take many to push the price through 20p support...
So the Board, in defiance of bHP and NCM proposed a royalty deal, possibly with Boliden or even Jiangxi Copper...or a further tranche from FN...
Again BHP/NCM made their feelings clear and as Biswas rightly poits out the previous deal was supposed to be a 'one off'.
My guess is that IH and AS would then have proposed a rights issue to appease BHP and NCM but the 'faction' on the Board disagreed leaving an impasse and with IH and AS having nowhere to go except out...
If all that is true, and it is just hunch, it leaves SOLG either needing to do a discounted rights issue, struggle on or call BHP/NCM's bluff...
What a mess...it is simply not very clever to have one of their major shareholders calling them out in public yet again!
Totally agree, why not present the streaming offer to all shareholders and hold an EGM to vote on it.
If majority of shareholders vote yes, then that's that. That's good corp governance... we've listened and out it to a vote.
What Tiswas failed to mention is that last year SOLG did the Franco deal because NCM and BHP were after a cheap placing. Had he not been so greedy then the Franco deal might not have happened. Now... SOLG could throw it back and say we don't support your idea as you're doing exactly what you did last year!!!!!
Ave it... you scum bags!
dbw - it's in black and white
"But Mr Biswas said SolGold had again sought to raise funds through methods other than share issuance over the past month.
Cash box is share issuance so not that and NCM and BHP got invited into that.
Solgold should release the details of the offer so that ALL shareholders understand what opportunities exist to the company....
Lots of games being played, especially on this Board
Hooray - confirmed via the horse mouth
"But Mr Biswas said SolGold had again sought to raise funds through methods other than share issuance over the past month.
’They chose not to do that, they went back to what happened last year and we...did not support that proposal,” he said.
Well sorry NCM... if the majority of shareholders prefer the boliden deal, then you'll have to stick it up your jumper won't you!!!
Absolute joke that we are being bossed around by these two majors. They only hold 27% between! Anyone would think they hold 51%!