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DBW indeed it is !!!
Bubble … CGP and NM very confident right now, please take my word for it …. Solgold towers very quiet but it’s coming my friend
Red , NCM know pretty much what's there probably via NM aus contacts lol!!:(:), BHP here to spoil the party but not for long imho somebody is going to take cascabel on to mine imho
"I don't see NCM as being a copper player...."
So why do you think NCM got involved in the first place...?
We know from past discussions that CGP are looking for a pay day and been doing so for the last 3 or 4 years. We don't know what the terms of the 'cooperation agreement' are with SOLG/CGP but I'll take a run and jump at it and say they have committed their ENSA stake to SOLG (in votes) on the basis that SOLG do not apply that $3.5m clause. By doing that, both parties share common interest and it prevents a predator from buying one (eg SOLG) and leaving the other on the shelf (CGP) ready to wilt and cede to the $3.5m deal as the ENSA terms will transfer from SOLG to any new buyer. In exchange for this cosy relationship, Irwin and co have got to sit on their hands and keep their front door shut. No one was ever going to buy CGP knowing that that $3.5m clause existed. That said, they could always stump up the required costs but if you bought SOLG and CGP together (or ENSA on 100% basis) then there is no back costs to be paid. All costs just carry forward and should be used for tax offsets.
I just can't see NCM getting overly involved with SOLG. I think they like the Gold and Silver ratio's and perhaps the regional folio but I don't think they are that keen on the copper mix. I don't see NCM as being a copper player. I might be wrong of course but I think that's more Rio, Barrick, Anglo and of course now BHP's game.
I think NCM are ready to cash out on any SOLG bid deal but know they have an important stake - a swing stake. So they'll be holding tight until the starter gun goes. I think they'll want at least north of 50p based on the averages and time invested in SOLG (many years).
I think a bid will come in the next 12 weeks. Possibly as early as next month. But do get a feeling that BHP and Oz Minerals action has some implications but just not sure what they are right now. But BHP might be hedging their bets. Gain one but lose the other perhaps?
This announcement a few weeks ago was really embarrassing...Newcrest withdrawing after CGP had spent more than required...$2.6m sunk cost...added to NCM's declining to increase their involvement in Havieron, does this imply they are cutting back because of their recent disappointing results, or in preparation for doing something at Cascabel or simply rationalising their portfolio and would they bite BHP's hand off at 75p as a precursor to a bid...?
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CORNERSTONE-CAPITAL-RESOU-61956577/news/Cornerstone-Capital-Resources-22-19-Newcrest-withdraws-from-Option-and-Farm-in-Agreement-for-the-41341480/
If NCM had signed the agreement they would have potentially been committed to investing at least $110m CDN. That now won't happen...
Meanwhile the CGP SP is languishing at a 27 month low of $3.05...and they had net current assets of $3.3m at June 30...this is despite Brooke Macdonald saying in a recent AFR article that he expects them to be taken over by the end of 2022...
Their stake in ENSA is valued at $156.9m CDN which would out the value of the whole of ENSA at c$1 billion (£650 million) compared to SOLGs current MCap of £508 million...the ENSA valuation carries an inferred deferred tax liability of $43.9m CDN...
And to remind you, "Cornerstones' intention is to monetise its interest in Cascabel" (BEFORE the completion of the 'Feasibility Study'....
That fits in with the suggestion that CGP will be sold and also the suggestion in the media that NCM/BHP were working on a proposal to buy Cascabel...
Finally they have decided NOT to recognise any carrying contingency for their spending on the construction of Cascabel until the DFS is complete...I find it hard to understand how they've got away with that, because at 31 December it was over $40 million and as well as not recognising this significant contingency they have also failed to value the prospective loss if they have to cede their 15% interest in Cascabel for $3.5m (current value $156 million...)
So all in all the only possible conclusion is that CGP expect EITHER that there will be a takeover of SOLG or that ENSA will be sold (i.e. it is their INTENTION to monetise Cascabel BEFORE the DFS is completed)...
Interesting...all comments welcome as usual...
...
LunchMoney, as far as I'm aware, the cash box is only for working capital and exploration eg anything other than ENSA. ENSA finance was previously 100% ring fenced via Franco deal.
So my assumption is that there were two proposed raises (eg the finance structure) with $40m for NON ENSA via cash box and $50m via Boliden etc as royalty deal for ENSA only to see through to DFS. I have no idea what capital commitments are required for DFS but if it involves further land purchases and other related pre development costs then it could be $100m for all we know. That's the frustration... we know the burn rate for NON ENSA based on aggressive exploration phases but we have zero idea on what's required to reach DFS. That's poor and that failure of communication rests with SOLG and no one else. BHP and NCM cannot be blamed for that. Darryl is the man with-holding the capital commitments from 'all' shareholders so hope he's following the rules. As you say, results due before end of Sept means we should get a guide on going concern and 12 month forecast on cash burn and what position they are to deliver funding.
So looks like we'll have some kind of corporate event within the next 4 to 5 weeks imho.
Self.imposed school lines.....great intellect!
that's a fair point.
addickt...why don't you desist...you seem just as determined that you are right (and we know you are), but these are pointless exchanges...
I wouldn't want you to have a heart attack mate...she's not worth it...
Good grief!!!
Sorry addicknt you made my point.
Btw, when the next placing is announced, assuming we won't be given an opportunity to participate, it will come in the form of a statement outlining what has already happened...no pre-announcement.
So where is the statement that it happened and failed.
We don't have one as it was a discussion and nothing more.
I've started a new thread because I suspect the others will be deleted.
It's clear that you either didn't read what I posted earlier in the week, or you simply didn't understand it.
I was crystal clear; any share issue which includes an offer to the public i.e the two you refer to, is pre-announced...for obvious reasons. Other issues which do not involve the public are NOT pre-announced and if you believe they are, please provide one example since 2016 (as far as back as I could be bothered )
Anyway, I've had enough of this conversation. You are wrong and your compounding your error every time you post.
Btw, when the next placing is announced, assuming we won't be given an opportunity to participate, it will come in the form of a statement outlining what has already happened...no pre-announcement. At that point, I'lll accept your humble apology.
That reminds me.
I must do the lottery.
If Quasi is right I might just win
Afer all there's as much chance of either occurrences actually happening.
Copper through $3.73 resistance...keeps testing $3.76...$3.80 is major resistance then we're on our way to $4.00 next major resistance...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3877008-copper-extends-gains-chinas-energy-shortage-could-boost-demand?mailingid=28855105&messageid=2900&serial=28855105.10582&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28855105.10582
That reminds me.
I must do the lottery.
If Quasi is right I might just win
Afer all there's as much chance of either occurrences actually happening.
OK addicknt a detailed answer for you.
Below is Solgolds last announcement of a fund raise at this point it has neither succeeded or failed but we have the announcement.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/proposed-placing-and-retail-offer-bcnlkdoaa4n9fl8.html
Next we have the primary bid offer.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/primarybid-offer-x8k4id7au7you6g.html
Lastly we have the results, it's at this stage we understand if it was successful or it failed.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/results-of-placing-1o7llftmvz4j2wv.html
We never even got the offer statement so no fund raise was attempted.
Do you understand now !
OK addicknt a detailed answer for you.
Below is Solgolds last announcement of a fund raise at this point it has neither succeeded or failed but we have the announcement.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/proposed-placing-and-retail-offer-bcnlkdoaa4n9fl8.html
Next we have the primary bid offer.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/primarybid-offer-x8k4id7au7you6g.html
Lastly we have the results, it's at this stage we understand if it was successful or it failed.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/results-of-placing-1o7llftmvz4j2wv.html
We never even got the offer statement so no fund raise was attempted.
Do you understand now !
LunchMoney, a minor fund raise would not have seen royalty deals involved so I think it's fair to assume that parties involved knew what was going on and as such blocked it somehow. That would indicate $100m+ imho. If it was just $40m plus some working capital to sort exploration on regionals then it would have skimmed through with no issues via equity raise. Same as years before. This year was different as SOLG appeared to try and do the same as last year (Franco) according to NCM Bizwaz.
Lunchmoney companies talk about finances all the time.
Until a fund raise is put to the market and share holders are informed, no fund raise has taken place.
Otherwise that means every company has failed fund raises all the time.
That's just nonsense.
Q, provide just one example of your contention, please - excluding public offerings.
The evidence is all there and therefore I don't have to wait to see who's correct.
Addicknt let me help you out.
Companies do not give details of discussions about raising funds ( this is what happened here )
If a company attempts a fund raise , then at the point it puts a fund raise to the market, we as share holders get the details. We then see if it fails or succeeds and at that point we get a second statement.
You will understand that when Solgold fund raises later on this year.
Let's just wait and see who's correct.
Companies do not...I repeat, DO NOT, give details of failed fund raises. You've been investing for over 40 years, perhaps you can furnish us with examples when a company has done so? And if you choose to look back over the past six years you'll see that details of successful placings are not given until they are completed and not as you have suggested, beforehand. For the love of God, just look back at our announcements - the proof is all there.
I'm sure Quady will respond eventually but in the meantime the RNSs on 28th July and 1 August were 'cleansing statements'
I'm not sure whether Q understands what those are, but basically because potential investors were approached for firm interest in a fund raise (which appears to have been a 'cashbox', their ability to trade in Solgold shares was suspended.
The two 'cleansing statements' released them to be able to trade again and this proves there was an attempted fundraise.
This was also confirmed in the attached AFR article which most in here have read, which refers specifically to the failed attempt by Barrenjoey to lead a fundraise...
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/s-all-not-well-at-solgold-20220814-p5b9p0
The trouble is, Quady thinks the sun shines out of Solgold's proverbial and refuses to accept that they need a fundraise no later than January, to get them through the preparation of the DFS and any drilling they want to do...
He has to believe there was no failed fundraise, because that puts his darling project at risk and increases the likelihood of a takeover bid(s), which would mean that Solgold DOES NOT take Alpala to production...
Anyhow I'll stop there and I'm sure somebody will reveal what inanity he posts in response...