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Morning Quady, that could be argued yes, but they will have to do it quite quickly as Greatland are now fully funded to production and production will be in just circa 18 months… at which point they will be a profit generating outfit… and in a position to simply turn it down unless it’s a huge offer.
In my opinion they have put together a great board, enhanced exceptionally in the last few days, and are making Solg look utterly glacial..
The problem with the GGP story is that NCM have 70% and the book is not diverse. This means that the price can be manipulated and eventually when people have had enough, NCM will buy it out.
Nice find… thanks for posting Stocky
These debates are purely abstract for the time being, though, and the presence of Wyloo means that it’s more likely now that they will remain so as the mine goes into production. After all, Greatland’s current share price remains a shadow of its former 37p high, since even after the recent bump, it’s still trading at below 10p.
And even broker Canaccord Genuity (TSX:CF, LSE:CF), a supporter, doesn’t reckon it’s going quite back to its former levels. Instead, the broker set a target following the news of the funding and board appointments of 25p, more than two and a half times where it is now, and a valuation, which, if borne out, would take Greatland’s market capitalisation back towards the £1bn mark.
Such a valuation may now be justified given that Havieron looks to be headed towards production with Greatland likely to retain its 30% ownership all the way. But there remains execution risk, and the significant factor that when all’s said and done the ball remains largely in Newcrest’s court.
There may well be significant moves towards a re-rating in the coming months, but nothing like the spectacular rise that shareholders saw at the end of 2020 is likely to be repeated.
And there remains, too, the question of the longer term.
What will Greatland look like in the future?
Will it continue to be an exploration play, working up its other claims in the Paterson Range? Or will it instead simply become a cash cow, focussed primarily on deriving its value from the sizeable dividends that will shortly start to come rolling in from the Havieron operation?
Time will tell if the big company mentality makes itself felt. For now, Greatland remains the beacon for all smaller companies to set their navigation lights by – representing as it does the transformation of dusty ground into hundreds of millions of dollars worth of gold and opportunity.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/992431/greatland-gold-shows-how-holding-firm-in-the-face-of-pressure-from-the-big-boys-can-create-significant-long-term-value-992431.html
A few years ago, Greatland Gold PLC (AIM:GGP, OTC:GRLGF) was just another penny stock with licences over some dusty ground in Australia. Companies like that come and go on the world’s stock exchanges all the time, diluting shareholders down to crumbs and then consolidating their shares and starting all over again.
But Greatland Gold proved to be the exception that proved the rule.
In the London market, only one other company, Solgold, has come close to what Greatland has achieved - making a major discovery and then keeping hold of a significant portion of it as the big money comes in to move it forward into production.
Solgold had Cascabel in Ecuador and Greatland has Havieron.
Both companies made early backers overnight millionaires when the extent of their discoveries became apparent, and both companies have subsequently been on a rollercoaster ride in terms of share price as the market struggles to come to terms with what such huge discoveries are really worth when held by smaller companies that are trying to punch above their weight.
Cascabel became the subject of a tug of war between two major mining companies, and some of the intricacies of that fight went on to damage sentiment.
But in the case of Havieron, it’s been more straightforward.
Those who came later to the party are now underwater as the share price has dropped away from the heights it reached last year.
But the recent news of a financing package that will allow Greatland to fully fund its 30% share of the development costs at Haviernon did boost the share price by more than 10%. Concurrently, new board members were announced, including as non-executive chairman Mark Barnaba, who is the current deputy chairman of Fortescue Minerals, a A$50bn company.
Greatland has hit the big time, and the big hitters are accordingly coming in to meet it.
Serial small-cap non-executive Alex Borelli, who was chairman, will remain on the board as “London representative.”
And so Greatland survives the threat of extinction by a major, and lives to fight another day. The arrival of a serious mining investment vehicle on the register in the shape of Wyloo Metals adds strength in depth to any potential defence in the face of a hostile advance from Havieron’s now-majority owner Newcrest.
Newcrest and Greatland have always seemed to get along reasonably well in public, even if Newcrest has at times appeared to downplay the dollar value of Havieron to suit its own ends. The thinking has been that a reduced Greatland price would suit Newcrest very well, and allow it to come in and make a bid at what initially would appear to be a nice premium, but which in fact would be a significant discount on the real value of Havieron.
Yes… that’s my guess.. but it would be lower than 18.
Our board will just kick the can down the road again
It would be interesting to know how much they were trying to raise and how ..if the likes of DGR , Tenstar , Cornerstone and Nick not to mention a few others no longer want to put in more funds to avoid the dilution and the bigger boys want exactly that but not prepared to pay what is an acceptable price sp wise maybe that is resulting in the standoff that we seem to be in..probably completely wrong but I am sure we will know more soon enough
Does anyone think they will go down the PB route again, wont mind buying a few more around 18p for a cheap raise at $50 million, should get that through without any probs, see them through to next summer
GLA LTH
Very little indeed.
GL
:)
LM, I share your interest, although I'd be amazed if they agreed to a gagging order.
Yes I see what you mean there lolzzz, Hopeful as ever
8.20 is a great price, I didn’t realise the Sp has fallen so low. Might buy a few
Couldn't resist this morning, just in for another 26,745 shares @ 8.20 ... ;))
Luvly Jubly
Hoping my Limit buy goes through ok today, adding a few more at these near year low prices,
GLA LTH
Bozi, of course you are right, these are worrying times, although we've been here before. Mind you, we haven't had a failed fund raise before - at least not one we're aware of. The loss of key people hasn't helped either.
As far as the funding issue is concerned, I take comfort from the fact that it wasn't due to lack of appetite, but rather it faced shareholder dissent, and it's now incumbent on those shareholders and the company to come up with an alternative and I'm certain this is being worked on now.
The other crumb of comfort is that we've not heard a peep from CGP or Irwin. Based on past history I think it would be fair to say that if they were concerned they would have gone public. (an alternative view is that they're keeping their powder dry for the AGM)
In my opinion DC will be working flat out to resolve this issue and it's only a matter of time before details emerge.
Thanks Woody, appreciate you taking the time to respond. FWIW, I emailed Mather directly at his DGR address and got nothing back. Maybe I'll try again.
If nothing of note happens pre-AGM I will be selling my remaining shares here and moving on from SOLG. Too much second guessing, not enough action.
Hello SharketMare
On your points:
1. I was not specific, but was thinking of Ayten and Ingo. As Red mentioned if Ingo is subject to an NDA, maybe that's why Fawzi was short with me on that point as SG will be too. I hasten to add, I did acknowledge to Fawzi he was the fall guy taking the brunt of the disgruntled emails and appreciated anything he could say.
2. No I did not ask this. I had expressed my dissatisfaction with no updates for a year (Fawzi - I acknowledge poorly expressly by me in my frustration) - Fawzi was quick to point out the Cascabel PFS and Tandayama-America resource update) this year. I should have been more precise and referred to the lack on any information on what the funding strategy is and news - which is what I was getting at. I had asked how Solgold squared Nick Mather's recent volte face from saying we are going to production when he was chair, to saying we are an explorer and need corporate action (excuse my generalisation if the wording is not quite correct) a month or two back. I got no response on that. If Nick Mather and Cuzzubbo did see my emails as far as I am aware neither they nor the company have clarified this. Hopefully they are reading.
I am not de-ramping BTW, I am holding, no choice really, but very fed up with SG and myself.
Woody, thanks for sharing. A couple of clarifications if you can be bothered:
1) Which employees did you ask about? Assuming Ayten? That departure has obviously been acrimonious - we might not ever know the story behind it. The response you got was indeed frosty.
2) Did you specifically ask whether the PEA and PFS would be released before the AGM?
On funding, that's the line that's been trotted out for the last few months, as you rightly point out.
The question around insolvency is not hugely relevant right now but it becomes more relevsnt with each passing month that we don't secure finance to keep the lights on.
That is uncomfortable for me to say and it should be uncomfortable for you to read. But that is the fact of the matter.
$26m as at the end of June, so likely somewhere around $17-20m at the end of this month. For a company with one tier 1 and a need to defend itself from predation this is not a good position to be in.
There's no point me emailing Nick or Darryl. I trust others will be doing that and why add another steaming turd (my email) to their inbox. They need to be running the business, not dealing with me, besides.
Crossing my fingers and holding my nose will get me through the winter.
Nick and his associated interests have 293 million shares...
They've lost almost £50 million in 12 weeks...on paper...
A loss is not a loss until you sell...
World markets are a mess because of COVID, Ukraine and inflation...
Sorry dcuzzubbo@solgold.com.au
nmather@solgold.com.au
ncuzzubbo@solgold.com.au
Hi Red, thank you. For the record I have not sent any abusive emails to Fawzi, he has rightly said he does not reply to abuse. I have also asked him to forward to Darryl and Nick which he says he does. Point noted re Norge and Black Rock buying in the 30s, they should have waited. I am not scaremongering I have a lot of shares, I am ****ed off.
Yes of course addic, using deflection from what you accused me of suggesting, just because you couldn't back up your nonsensical accusations you rely on good old putin.
The main objective for all shareholders is to make profit so let's leave it there.
THE INSOLVENCY QUESTION IS COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT!!!
A company with at least two Tier ones, one of which is almost the biggest in the last 10 years can always raise funds at a price.
They dont need funds right now with c$20m and a monthly cash burn of c$2/3m...
STOP the scaremongering. This is not Sirius.
Norges and BlackRock were recently buying at over 30p...even in late June.
They could easily raise a quick $10/20m which would take them through to calmer waters and a higher SP...
The July shenanigans were not good and obviously we're all frustrated, but abusive emails to Fawzi are not acceptable and he may have received yours in the aftermath.
If you're really angry why not email Darryl or Nick...