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I for one am extremely pleased my possible 10p scenario never happened.
The panic is over for now but the fundamentals that existed before the drop are the same.
We are just that little bit closer to a catalyst to a bid IMHO.
It wasn't a 10p prediction, it was the sell off last week suggest a total collapse in price with further falls looking likely at that time, a week is a long time in the markets!!
So what happened to your "10p prediction" and all the rubbish you've been posting on the other site?
Market conditions mainly plus positive buying volume favours a breakout imo
Market conditions mainly plus positive buying vume favours a breakout imo
We're at a turning point IMO...
Capitulation on Thursday...
Bullish Harami on Thursday/Friday...if we close above 16.43 today that will confirm the start of a bullish uptrend...
"Alarm bells are ringing for those holding short positions. We are on the verge of telling an end to the bearish phase in the market and acknowledge the ascendancy of the bulls."
And a 100% SELL on all measures on Barchart....got to be a bottom...?
The beauty of trading shares is that neutral position, not bothered if it falls you can buy back, or if it goes up you can sell your remainder... win win
You’re a disgrace, ramping and selling then de-ramping and buying back.
Shocking behaviour although I suspect everyone knows what a snake you are
Dave, why don't you explain your calculation?
60/40 in favour of breaking out imo...its trying to
Part 2
(Laufmann) said with 8Mt of additional copper production needed by 2030, the world was sleepwalking into a situation that would have to incentivise developing new mines.
“There’s no argument from anyone on the general sense of the copper thematic, it’s been pretty straightforward for a long time,” he said.
“It’s like a lot of things that play out in real time; the frog is sitting in the water, and the water is heating up, but he doesn’t realise till he passes out. I think that’s the situation that the world kind of finds itself in here.”
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/goldman-sachs-the-only-way-well-meet-copper-demand-by-2030-is-if-prices-top-us13000/
Goldman has been one of the world’s most noteworthy copper bulls in recent times, suggesting demand for the red metal to cater for the electrification of everything from cars and buses to off-grid electricity will blow supply out of the water by the end of the decade.
In one fantastical swoop, commodities strategist Nicholas Snowdon even suggested prices of US$100,000/t, something that would eclipse last year’s US$10,724/t record nearly 10 times over.
Goldman has not gone that far in a recent note outlining the prospects for the world’s top 50 developing copper projects.
But they have said prices above US$13,000/t would be needed to incentivise the 8Mt of additional annual production needed by 2030 to cater for demand from renewables, power infrastructure and EVs — around eight times that of the world’s biggest copper mine Escondida.
According to Goldman, US$9000/t is the new marginal incentive price for a copper mine today, up 30% on 2018.
According to Goldman, 50% of supply from the world’s top-50 development ready projects will come in unconventional jurisdictions like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, PNG, Botswana, Panama, Zambia and Mongolia.
These projects have higher reserve grades, but are located in jurisdictions with difficult permitting regimes, endemic government corruption and/or a dearth of mining know-how.
“This leads to higher returns/copper prices being required and indicates possible delays in project sanctioning/execution,” Goldman analysts suggest.
All up, an extraordinary US$150 billion of capex needs to be sunk into the ground by 2030 to bring on this 8Mt wave of new supply.
Something has got to budge, and amid the chaos a number of majors, mid-tiers and juniors do have projects worth pursuing that stand to materially increase their production and free cash flows in the coming years.
The belief in the world’s biggest mining companies in copper as a thematic to back has been made clear by decisions from BHP (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) to launch ambitious all-cash takeover bids in recent months.
Profound...
Question is...did we have capitulation last week...?
Dave you took the words right out the horses mouth .
Gl
Share price might go up or down - thanks Dave. Any views on the sun rising tomorrow?
It's either going to break out to upside soon or continue to down trend, let see which way it goes..
Ship about time imho
This share may very well come good and all do very well, however, my strategy is not to be holding when funding news arrives, and I'm more than happy to miss out on potentially groundbreaking positive news..
Target 17p to sell the rest, or buy back @ 15.20
Far more O trades to A trades today
Need an upsurge here in share price ,alright mentioning copper demand which we us lths all know about but how about giving us a decent return for our investments in NM we trust
RK, this is all good stuff and no one doubts the longer term future for copper, however, we'll all be feeling a great deal more comfortable once we've got some cash in the bank. (and before anyone says it, I know we've got 20m, or thereabouts, but the next two months will pass in the blink of an eye)
As far as the fund raising is concerned my guess is that Twigger is having to earn his keep. DC has no capital markets background and an interim CFO doesn't cut it in terms of getting a tick in the box from investors. The loss of IH was a serious blow and whilst Saridas disappearance is mysterious I don't regard it as that significant. We really do need a new full time CFO.
You're very welcome Jezzoo...
Part 2
Globally, supplies are already so tight that producers are trying to squeeze tiny nuggets out of junky waste rocks. In the US, companies are running into permitting roadblocks.
And then there’s this great contradiction when it comes to copper: The metal is essential to a greener world, but digging it out of the earth can be a pretty dirty process. At a time when everyone from local communities to global supply chain managers are heightening their scrutiny of environmental and social issues, getting approvals for new projects is getting much harder.
“The incentive to use cash flows for capital returns rather than for investment in new mines is a key factor leading to a shortage of the raw materials that the world needs to decarbonize," analysts at Jefferies Group LLC said in a report this month.
Even if producers switch gears and suddenly start pouring money into new projects, the long lead time for mines means that the supply outlook is pretty much locked in for the next decade.
“The short-term situation is contributing to the stronger outlook longer term because it's having an impact on supply development," Richard Adkerson, CEO of Freeport-McMoRan, said in an interview. And in the meantime, “the world is becoming more electrified everywhere you look," he said, which inevitably brings “a new era of demand."
https://www.livemint.com/market/commodities/why-copper-prices-can-t-remain-at-historic-low-explained-11663805226402.html
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that miners need to spend about $150 billion in the next decade to solve an 8 million-ton deficit, according to a report published this month. "
" To put in perspective just how massive that shortage would be, consider that in 2021 the global deficit came in at 441,000 tons, equivalent to less than 2% of demand for the refined metal, according to the International Copper Study Group. That was enough to send prices jumping about 25% that year. Current worst-case projections from S&P Global show that 2035’s shortfall will be equivalent to about 20% of consumption.
As for what that means for prices?
“It’s going to get extreme," said Mike Jones, who has spent more than three decades in the metal industry..."
"Goldman Sachs forecasts that the benchmark London Metal Exchange price will almost double to an annual average of $15,000 a ton in 2025. On Wednesday, copper settled at $7,690 a ton on the LME."
“All the signs on supply are pointing to a fairly rocky road if producers don’t start building mines," said Piotr Kulas, a senior base metals analysts at CRU Group, a research firm.
"But even a recession will only mean a “delay" for demand, and it won’t “significantly dent" the consumption projections going into 2040"
The physical copper market is already so tight that despite the slump in futures prices, the premiums paid for immediately delivery of the metal have been moving higher.
At mature mines, the quality of ore is deteriorating, meaning output either slips or more rock has to be processed to produce the same amount. And meanwhile the industry’s pipeline of committed projects is running dry. New deposits are getting trickier and pricier to both find and develop.
Soaring inflation is also driving up the cost of production. That means the average incentive price, or the value needed to make mining attractive, is now roughly 30% higher than it was 2018 at about $9,000 a ton, according to Goldman Sachs.