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Addinct yes I accept your point , especially when it comes to raising funds.
The talk amoungst miners is that the M&A season is about to really kick off so hopefully it's time to fasten the seat belts, I'm back in yesterday:-)
DBW, yes, possibly, but I assume you accept my argument about the start point? It's far easier to negotiate from a position of strength, but we are not currently in that position.
We all have our own views about an exit valuation and I'm sure none of us are happy with where we are now. I don't want someone to nick this whilst we're at a bargain basement value.
precisely... and just for the record, I don't think Noront would have gone for more than 110cents had their share price been 70 cents when the first offer came in. The fact it was 23 cents when BHP made the 55 cent offer just shows how 'asleep' at the wheel the market was.
A rumour in a newspaper over the weekend on a bid approach whisper could see SOLG back into the 30's before a bid even materialises.
Sorry...forgot the link to the Mergermarket article...
https://info.mergermarket.com/solgold-go-it-alone-strategy-debated-ahead-october-showdown-shareholders-bankers/
Add …. You could look at it another way. Our current low market value may be the spark that was needed to kick the process off
Sadly, it's the market which dictates the value of your shareholding. So you can whine as much as you wish about its inefficiencies, but it doesn't change the facts.
I'm here for the same reason as you and, like you, believe some form of corporate action is in the offing. My gripe is that our board has put itself in a bind, in as much as the start point for any negotiation is now much lower than it was.
Remember this article from 2020. after the FNV deal..?
"The capital raise was a bit strange...but seems to have had the effect of putting management in a stronger position....
SolGold is right for consolidation...so it must either be sold or build the Cascabel project itself, but it is difficult to see how current management can do that on its own. There is a lot of value in Solgold’s assets and a sale of the company would be desirable....
It may be the tactic is to attract an offer, and that COVID-19 might have slowed down a potential sale, but given that management own a large stake in the business it may also be focusing on developing the company itself...
“You don’t want to get stuck in this asset, you want movement on an offer or on the Cascabel project, which has massive potential,” Neuhauser said.
BHP is most likely interested in owning Cascabel given that so very few assets of this size are available in the world, (Brooke) Macdonald said. “It is a monster.”
“With copper prices on the up, and gold going gangbusters, I think someone will make a move towards end of the year,” Macdonald said. “We want to launch a strategic review and sale process in order to open up the data room to a wider universe of companies and get competitive tension to maximise value for shareholders.”
The sale process could be structured in such a way as to allow third parties to competitively bid, given the concentrated ownership, and that would support a friendly deal and encourage success, he said."
Maybe this is the scenario playing out 2 years late...
Strategic review (share price up sharply)...data room (come and buy us...)
Whatever, as the Colonel has implied..."Summats Up!"...
The market? Is this the same market that priced Oz minerals at $4bln and then BHP likely last offer will be $10bln? Is this same market that priced noront at 23 cents and wyloo some months later (with no major noront catalyst news etc) bought it for 110 cents? Is this the same market that drove SOLG down to 11p when a flu bug on steroids swept across the world? The market will adjust to what it is told. These days it 'follows'. In the old days it used to be designed as a forward thinker and prices would be advanced. It's a casino and the house always reduces the odds when they think punters need to come back to the casino bank for cash. To beat the market, you have to be ahead of it.
Agree again
Nick has 300m reasons not to let this go. Same reason probably JV talks have borne no fruit … it reduces T/O premium.
Fort, I absolutely agree with you that NM will not be taking this lying down, but as it stands, the market is only interested in hard facts.
Addicknt where I think we disagree is even with a fund raise, the share price may not move much.
This is about the wider market, so as I said I am quite relaxed.
I don't think Solgold expected Putin to invade the Ukraine, and so we have a falling share price.
Not ideal I agree, but we are where we are.
Let's see what happens.
addicknt
You still seem to be missing the point. Yes... were very exposed aren't we?? There's no way Mather would allow this to happen unless it suits another agenda. When have SOLG ever (EVER) allowed them to be exposed? At when we near the all important stage... why NOW of all times would Mather just sit back and keel over without a fight?
I said a long time ago that BHP's foot in the door allowed them to have intimate discussions with SOLG that a non major major could not have. By this I mean, they could find a way to agree a stronger foothold with SOLG and avoid any fears of a counter bid or hostile approach from Rio, Codelco, Anglo, FMG and so on. By running down the clock... SOLG are forcing BHP to the table... not the other way around. As I have no doubt that SOLG have an alternative lined up. Mather would not play it any other way. So the clock is ticking and SOLG 'look' exposed but in reality they have highly likely got funding all sorted and ready and waiting. What they don't want is BHP to counter that with a typical bid rns that says... we are offering shareholders a better option blah blah blah
If SOLG drop some big partner or funding news with just 21 days to the AGM (I think that's the min notice period) then BHP will struggle to get an alternative out there before the VOTE.
There's no way Mather is sleep walking into a zero cash pile and easy takeover. He's been planning and waiting for this moment for over 10 years+.
Exposed?? Exposed my @rse!
Fort I’d agree but I’d say the next 4-6 weeks …. Voting likely to be open in circa 6 weeks .
Lunch …. Good post
Agree that Colonel...so is the plan for the current management to run the Ecuador division of BHP...?
Here we go...could it be time to fasten the seat belts??..
Something has to happen in the next 5 weeks to 12 weeks... as the end of the line nears. There are no questions about that. The phrase... 'coming to a head' pretty much nails it. Long time coming too.
There's one question that I want all shareholders (and traders/regular flippers) and it's this
1. Why are BHP here? Why are NCM here?
Answer that and you'll realise that it's always about power and how the big guy can try and squeeze the little guys. Capitalism at it's best or ugliest. There are no partners here or united shareholders. Just big entities wanting assets on the cheap. It's business.
Q, I accept all of that, but none of the reasons you provide are an excuse for the company not to be properly funded.
Clearly, the company had a plan for financing, but our main shareholders objected...this is irrefutable, and the consequence is that we're very exposed, which in turn has decimated the share price. In other words, a strategy approved by the board (I'm assuming it was ratified by them) fell to pieces due to a failure to understand our shareholders position. In other words, the board is directly culpable for the current situation.
Good morning LunchMoney, I don't think we are too far apart on our thinking.
I believe the fund raise is in hand and we will continue.
Yes surprise's can happen, but I don't think they will on this occasion.
BHP and NCM are in a really difficult position.
If we announce the updated PFS for Alpala and the PEA for Porvenir and we raise the capital to take us to DFS.
Then do they maintain their percentage.
I believe they have to.
No bid situation presents itself as Nick Mather has not let any one party acquire a dominant position, hence the diverse book.
I am relaxed about the Solgold story, and believe the best is to come.
I think once construction starts the share price will firm up.
Copper and Gold looking strong today. Let's see if buyers wade in..
The creation of shareholder value I feel is a red herring.
Look around any indices.
We still have Covid rampant in some parts of the world, and Putin's illegal invasion of the Ukraine.
However the elephant in the room, is worldwide government debt taken on by Covid. Government's cannot print themselves out of this, or take control of their home bond markets, as money supply would just tear everything apart. Just look what's happening in Turkey, Greece and other parts of the world.
Even UK bond markets are not in a good place.
Hence massive amounts of money leaving equities.
So as I said don't get Hung up about shareholder value as that is not in Solgolds hands or Indeed anyone elses.
RK, yes, that was quite funny: "We'll adhere to the guidelines, but only when it suits us".
I think if the entire board is put up for re-election they'll have to produce some evidence to demonstrate they are value for money. What exactly has the non-exec element of the board contributed to the company this year? because it's sure as sh*t ain't value creation.
Strong open today, the downward trend breakout could be on today?..
Fort, absolutely - their silence is both deafening and instructive.
redknight1 - we all know why you are here too... you are a remunerated grub associated with an entity wanting to take Solgover for cheap money