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After the announced merger/take over with/of CGP and the presentation I think we need to look at things in the cool light of day. What has changed?
You might say everything has changed now, but I don't think that is true. I think we are still proceeding to production. If we say that the 'For Sale' signs are up, then we are saying we are trying to sell Solgold cheap, i.e. it is a forced sale. I don't think any of us want that. Things might have changed to the extent that all options are now open, but I think we are still working to taking Apala to production and should someone come along with an offer we can't refuse, so much the better.
I am presuming that CGP allowed the merger/take over to go ahead now is probably that they no longer had to deal with Nick Mather, but I guess that , for a long time that joining up with Solgold was the one act that would give CGP potentially decent value, and they knew it. Of course the CGP shareholders may turn the deal down and then what happens?
Frog
$2.4 TRILLION Total Assets...
Sumitomo owns 5.5% of Atlantic Lithium...
DGR Global owns 23.2% after it was spun out of their stable...(Ironridge)
Holding 210k - target 21p
Thats a stretch Colonel...don't buy it that Mitsui have much loyalty to BHP...
I think you'll find they are much closer to Sumitomo...
"Major Shareholders of Mitsui & Co
The Master Trust Bank of Japan, Ltd. (Trust account)
Custody Bank of Japan, Ltd. (Trust account)
EUROCLEAR BANK S.A./N.V.
Nippon Life Insurance Company
STATE STREET BANK WEST CLIENT - TREATY 505234
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd."
Major Banks
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation / Mizuho Bank, Ltd. / MUFG Bank, Ltd. / Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Limited / Japan Finance Corporation (Japan Bank for International Cooperation)
Mitsui & Co., Ltd. is one of the largest sogo shosha (general trading companies) in Japan; it is part of the Mitsui Group.
Mitsui Group is one of the largest keiretsu in Japan and one of the largest corporate groups in the world.
The major companies of the group include Mitsui & Co. (general trading company), Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation,etc...
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Group (SMBC Group is the 12th biggest bank in the world by total assets. SMBC group is listed as 80th largest public company in the world according to Forbes ranking.[
6.8% is a decent holding size pre merger but drops to 5.4%post merger. Whatever happens, it's 157m shares to play with that were not available before. 157m x 25p banks about $43m cash. There's no way any interested party could acquire 6.8% at sub 25p imho. They might get 1% or 2% below 20p but once through 22p, the sp would move fast into the old trading change of 24p to 28p. Norges did well to pick up close to 4% at around 29p average I think. But that took them well over 12 months. Trying to gain 6.8% in open market prior to AGM nigh impossible. So yes, a premium should be baked in for that kind of wedge. It's effectively 5% of ENSA. Assuming a profile along lines for Franco deal, 20% IRR, that's about $100m value imho. Mitsui would be happy with 5% ENSA for $43m! That's a bargain.
My only issue with Mitsui, is that they have a clear relationship with BHP so looks like a way of keeping BHP in the game. Lets assume Barrick come forward and say to Mitsui... we'll give you xx for that 5% stake blah blah blah... due to BHP releatonships, Mitsui far more likely to be under pressure from BHP to hand that 5% over to them. Or existing relationship with BHP on other projects might become tricky???
Not sure if Mitsui are involved with Fortescue or Rio or Wyloo or Barrick etc.
There were never any funding fears, and that was clear from SOLG's messages. The market still has concerns as the share price has halved, but much of that has to do with wider market depressions. Many other stocks have halved too.
I guess the difference between Mitsui and say Barrick is that if the latter took the 6.8% (soon to be 5.4%) then in effect the 'hat' would be firmly chucked into the ring. What's the point of that when there's more poker value in waiting in the shadows???
It's been enjoyable watching this all unfold and seeing how some have had nerves tested, others more confident and so on. During all of this... nothing has changed with ENSA. It's world class attraction remains the same. Copper projections in mid 2025 / 2028 the same.
For BHP, the usual benchmark for value is the WVAP when making an all share offer. So the longer they wait and the longer SOLG are sub 20p or even sub 25p, the lower the 3 month VWAP. It currently sits at around 24p I think. It was 32p a few weeks back.Likely to be nearer 20p if sub 20p during bulk of October.
Pitch an offer at 100% premium to 90 day VWAP and that looks good value to most market players. That's currently 48p.
When BHP bought Guineas 6.1% stake the SOLG SP more than doubled to over 40p in 6 weeks...
Seems reasonable for Mitsui or anyone else to pay a premium for a 6.8% stake...say 25p a share...as the SOLF SP would rocket immediately after...
Try telling sadiq Khan.
I can no longer drive my 20 year old car to visit my elderly mum without paying a ulez charge. I do 4k miles a year. If I had a new 4x4 doing 25k a year that would be fine.
40....including Quady...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car
"Producing a medium-sized new car costing £24,000 may generate more than 17 tonnes of CO2e – almost as much as three years' worth of gas and electricity in the typical UK home."
"Indeed, for each mile driven, the emissions from the manufacture of a top-of-the-range Land Rover Discovery that ends up being scrapped after 100,000 miles may be as much as four times higher than the tailpipe emissions of a Citroen C1."
"With this in mind, unless you do very high mileage or have a real gas-guzzler, it generally makes sense to keep your old car for as long as it is reliable – and to look after it carefully to extend its life as long as possible. If you make a car last to 200,000 miles rather than 100,000, then the emissions for each mile the car does in its lifetime may drop by as much as 50%, as a result of getting more distance out of the initial manufacturing emissions."
I don't think Q is a member, nobody uses the terms he does there.
The damage to the planet by BUILDING a NEW electric car is far more than the damage my car will ever do in its entire life...
I NEVER buy new cars.
And I'm averaging 3,000 miles a year...
No one is going to buy the company quickly, are you nuts. Due diligence will take a very long time and despite your ramping BS it won’t get you out of the hole you have dug for yourself.
Posting the same bs day in day out on both sites won’t change the facts……
I don’t think I have ever read posts from a more incompetent ramper…..you’re a disgrace to investors……completely clueless
My favourite post so far on the alternative site was “there will definitely be one bidder’
Ahhh...I missed the signifcance of this:
"“Parts of the strategic review had already commenced sometime ago and that includes bringing in parties that are interested in taking a stake at the asset level at Cascabel,” Mr Cuzzubbo said.
“There‘s been a number of visits to Cascabel of which one was tweeted. This is one of the options that we’re looking at – organisations that could take a strategic interest at the asset level. We’ve had an off-taker come and visit the site as well.”
So DC is saying that Mitsui want to buy a stake in Cascabel "at the asset level"...
Now THAT is very clever, because the presentation strongly revolved around the prospective value of Cascabel (up to 94p or more). And the Mining Vice Minister also said Mitsui want a stake in Cascabel.
So...DC is indicating what Mitsui would have to pay for a stake in Cascabel and that would then have a direct impact on the SOLG share price...
Add tp that a new party (even Mitsui ideally...) buying the 157m SOLG shares and you have a much higher SP...
Indeed the smart thing to do is to insist that Mitsui buy the SOLG stake at a modest premium now, guaranteeing them an uplift when they later buy a stake in Cascabel...
If all this happens Mitsui could become:
1 A 'poison pill' or
2 A leading prospective bidder for SOLG or
3 A prospective 100% owner of Cascabel or
4 The blue touch paper for a bidding war...
This strategy looks cleverer by the minute.
However meanwhile the Australian got their facts wrong:
The $3 to 3.5m cash burn per month is the TOTAL cash burn not the drilling cash burn...
Quady, I see that English isn’t your strong point. Look up the word diverse.
Red can we get our offer on the table first !!!!!
How about this Lunch...?
The option to buy the shares for cash is a non recourse commitment by the CGP shareholders assuming they get shareholder approval...
So could it be to cover off the possibility that there is a bid, so that the prospective bidder can quickly acquire Solgold without waiting for the CGP delisting process...?
IH actually said a change of strategy...
Could that be from developing Cascabel to selling Solgold...?
In which case his funding expertise would no longer be needed...
Somebody asked for ideas for reinvestment of SOLG proceeds...
CWR are 81% below Berenberg 22 September rerate...i.e. potential 84% uplift and as green a share as you can find...
ATYM on a fallback from the impending results I will be adding...
Thanks Quady,
one thing is for sure, starting to change the mood of investors here, which is a good thing vs the board of late. Exciting few months (and beyond) ahead!!
Quady very interesting times I certainly wouldn't want to be out or trade the share ATM
Q, I didn't say they were - just that they will exert a lot of influence...or do you disagree with that? Indeed, they've very obviously influenced the process so far by agreeing to the merger...there will be strings attached.
Sounds good in theory but disagree they have already done everything and brought in cgp to clear the book in case of any attempt to block an offer ,bhp /NCM are cornered imho it will be sold this year imho let's see NM has no intention of taking this to production history tells you he's an explorer not mining director
By my rough maths Sanga could own around 4% of Solg if the merger goes through. He has around 110 million reasons to get top dollar for any JV or sale of Solg!
Addicknt CGP are not running the show.
Solgold are.
We are still on plan A .
No one has said anything different.
I do accept with this major change that a sale of ENSA is possible, but if it was to happen it's a long way down the road.
Hi Bubble.
Lets say that a strategic review is done.
How long does it take?
Next they decide to sell it, we still have to fund raise to keep the lights on.
Next we go through the process of an offer, then we have due diligence based on an offer.
That could take a year.
All this time we continue down the road to production.
That's why Bubble.