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Copper very strong...gold and silver strong...Alpala will be the biggest silver mine, 3rd biggest gold mine and 6th biggest copper mine on the planet...
Copper is breaking out of a 2.1/2 year downtrend and above $3 will break a 9 year 'super trend' but the SOLG SP remains in a 20/21 channel...
So WHO is holding this down...?
But if this is a coiled spring, the price will catapult forwards on jus one piece of significant news...
But what...let's call it a 'white swan' event...
The TTT BOD negativity is a bit overwhelming at times.
Hi Tiger, I don't know is the short answer, I remember others commenting on the subject, about how the tax was payable and why. I think the possibility that you have raised was discussed, but from memory, it doesn't get round the tax implications. Maybe, someone can refresh our minds.
In which case, it would be best to sell the whole company, and then to create and float a new Ecuador exploration company, into which (presumably happy and enriched) former Solgold shareholders could invest if they chose. Some deal could be made about transferring exploration licenses to the new entity, I'm sure.
Hi The Iceberg!
Everybody does a DFS. And yet still a lot of mines hit trouble in the construction phase. Some fail completely.
Do a Google search on this subject if you don't believe me.
And, IMO, the current Solgold board demonstrably do NOT have the financial, engineering and logistical expertise to pull this off.
I'm not trying to stir things up, but somebody needs to say this. The current board strategy is not in shareholders' best interests.
Thank you Tiger, that's most helpful. May I remind you, Alpala cannot be sold as a standalone project even if Solgold wanted to. This has been covered in at least two presentations. We would get very little, because of the tax implications, so as NM has stated on two occasions, that I can recall. "For this reason, we cannot sell Alpala".
TBTT, again the devil is in the detail re mine construction, that's what the DFS is all about, it will plan the mine to the nth degree, the dimensions of the slope, the size of the equipment, even where to source the equip from, the contracts for the transport of concentrate etc.
Franco have done their Due Dili, and think that SOLG are capable of creating the mine, otherwise they wouldn't be investing the money for the royalty.
A mine isn't rocket science.
Yes, maybe the "groupthink" line was oversaid. My apologies.
TBTT, whilst I agree with much of your analysis, I'm not sure you're right about the 'groupthink' point.
It strikes me we have a good range of opinion on here and people are respectful (by and large) of other's views. In fact, I think this is one of the better boards on what can be a cess pit of a web site.
No, actual first mine production of concentrate will come in 2025, according to the plan.
It's worth also noting that many mine builds (about a third, I believe) go over time and over schedule.
All told, building a world-class mine like this is an extremely difficult and capital intensive business. It requires an incredible amount of expertise that only the majors really have. That's why almost all projects of Alpala's calibre are taken over by majors at this stage of development. (The only exception I can think of is Centamin's Sukhari mine, which was a special case, due to Egyptian politics and legalities).
IMO, it's in all shareholder's interests for a takeover by a major (at a reasonable price) to succeed in the near future. If not:
1. Solgold's board lack the expertise to build and operate such a complex mine. Certainly, I'd doubt their ability to get it built on time and on budget;
2. Solgold do not have easy access to cheap loan finance, as a major does. In all likelihood, at least some of the money will need to be raised via equity, which will occur at a low price (it always does) and will be hugely dilutive to existing shareholders.
In short, if Solgold "go it alone" then shareholder money will be tied up for years with no guarantee of value at the end of it. It's a dumb play - sell Alpala and continue exploring the other targets in Ecuador would be a far superior strategy.
TBTT, not really this idea that in Oct BHP will bid for company isn't based on any fact. Newcrest can bid for CGP now, but it isn't. If the market thought that Newcrest or BHP would bid for the company, or that SOLG's offer was too low and a higher offer was coming, then the shareprice would be higher, a lot higher, particularly for a low liquidity share on TSX V.
If Warren really thought this was the case, why has he been selling his CGP shares in the $2-3 range?
For CGP shareholders the facts are clear.
SOLG have made an offer.
When the DFS is produced for Cascabel some pretty strong liabilities become real.
The regional exploration that CGP is doing this year, is nothing when compared to SOLG's.
The only think the Market is currently assigning meaningful value to for CGP are its SOLG shares.
The response from CGP is already well known, they will talk about copper and gold prices and how this values their shares of the NPV for cascabel, they will talk about SOLG's share structure with DGR and tenstar, they will talk about new potential bids. But the truth is the market isn't valuing CGP's holding at even the 15% of SOLG's current SP valuation Pro rata.
Well even the FT are interested in the SOLG story:
SolGold chief executive Nicholas Mather said the consolidation of Alpala into a single listed entity made “eminent sense”, simplifying the structure of the $2.8bn project and reducing the risk of dilution and future development costs for Cornerstone shareholders.
“It is also a unique chance to be a part of SolGold’s ultimate vision to become a major copper-gold mining company in Ecuador,” Mr Mather added.
Alpala is currently owned by Ensa, an Ecuadorean company in which SolGold and Cornerstone have interests of 85 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.
Monkey business or just predators jostling for position to make a bid in October and NM working to get a fair price?
As you know, I am an Oil and Gas man. This is my first mining share, and have learnt a lot. Question to those who have been doing this longer than me. We get to build the mine, and if on time, it's in operation by 2025. But it's not an Oil rig. It's a hole in the ground. I take it 2025, is the completion date, and all the infrastructure around the mine is in situ by then as well. But as we build, will we be mining concentrate, to sell on the open market?
I think there is a fair amount of groupthink on this board.
Firstly, you're taking Solgold's case for Cornerstone shareholders to accept the offer as being a neutral and fair minded statement of fact. I'd regard it with a more skeptical eye - as the opening statement for the plaintiff in a civil court case. We haven't yet heard the lawyer for the defence speak. It may well be that Cornerstone have more options than we realise.
Secondly, yes, Cornerstone's board have not yet recommended officially against the bid. They can't - yet. They must first make a show of analysing it, so that they are being seen to perform their fiduciary duty to shareholders. However, to me it as clear as day, from what they have already said, backed up with an interview with a 20% shareholder in the FT, that Solgold's offer will be turned down.
Thirdly, it's also evident that relations between Nick Mather and both Newcrest and Cornerstone are dreadful. (BHP's feelings are unknown). I think a takeover bid for Solgold will be coming shortly. But, if not, I wonder if Newcrest and Cornerstone won't call an EGM with a "sack the board" agenda.
Good morning Scott, also been a shareholder in a few takeovers, not sure I agree with your figure of 40%, above initial offer. However, no matter what side of the argument you are on, everyone knows a takeover, means we don't get anywhere near full value. We only achieve that, by going to production. I think the Cornerstone issue is interesting at this stage, as we may get an indication, if any bids, will be forth coming.
So you would start a negotiation with a high offer?
Having been through several takeovers throughout my investing times, I have always felt cheated if the price offered were less than 40% above pre offer price. If I held cornerstone, Solg would have to double the premium to about 14:1 and to get me to vote yes about 16:1. Just playing devils advocate, would love us to get them for such a low ball offer.
The BFS won't be out till Q3 next year. Cornerstone will want to be sorted well before that date. PFS will be around September this year.
If Nick can somehow fast track the BFS and release it early that would turn up the heat on Cornerstone!
I agree Quady,
The regionals are key, CGP don't have a % of these, they only have the shares in SOLG to benefit from them. CGP have been selling these and if the regionals are fantastic, it will be a kin to CGP selling its share in a gold mine for coppers. One reason why as a past CGP holder I was really cross with the amount of shares they did sell.
It was essential for Nick to get the regional exploration, drilling not just trench work, underway now, which made the share issue essential to fund it, equally the Franco deal was essential to get to PFS prior mid Oct and prove we are funded to DFS.
To be honest everything that Nick has done this year, has been essential and essential with the timing as well. Covid was a bit of a bugger, but nothing anybody could do about that.
Correct W , they have publicly scoffed at it , but very much not rejected it .... the lady doth protest and all that
Good morning Scoutt, I am not sure I understand your post. The offer is the price that Solgold will be on the 12th October. You can keep your Cornerstone shares, and get diluted next year, when monies need to be paid. Or you can take, what I believe will be a higher price in October, with zero dilution. I think the offer, will be taken up. CGP, as far as I am aware, have not rejected the offer. I also have modified my view on will Solgold need to increase its offer. I don't think it will need to increase it. It's a good offer, and they benefit from all, the other tenements. I am aware that CGP, also hold Solgold shares, and thus benefit in that way, but they seem to be slowly selling them.
My take away from the redcloud piece is there thought that Alpala is the likely sale, Solg itself is an after thought.
I am open to anything to be honest.
I think SOLG's regionals are good enough to stand on their own feet and be company making.
I think selling Alpala would bring in way more than the current MCAP.
I think that SOLG itself being taken over would be higher than any SP reached in the last 7 years.
I think that SOLG announcing funding for Alpala production and using this to become a producer with Cascabel would take the SP far higher than today.
So I am happy :)
Scoutt to be fair its not even comparable.
If newcrest offered us direct shares in Ncm with a high possibility they will get bought out by Bhp in 12 months and we had no real way to move forward we may well be grabbing the offer.
As it stands solg have pretty much signed off on 18 months of funding with a route to possible future funds to build a mine.
I understand Cgp frustration but as far as I see we are trying to the best by both parties and its certainly not solg fault for lookimg after their shareholders interests.
So I have to disagree with your view im afraid and if I was a Cgp shareholder I'd by wanting my team to get around the table with Solg imo