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Good morning L2analyst, the recent placing of shares was always going to happen, Nothing to do with Alpala. The FN streaming deal was for Alpala, and money can only be used for that. Nobody at this stage of the development will fund the other tenements being proved up. So the recent placing of shares, is to continue the drilling programs on the sites, that we have licenses for. But I know, you know this. He has said many times, no joint ventures, we own Alpala. He has been honest with us in every respect. Yes he has hired Citi, in order to defend not only against low ball offers, but all offers, apart from full, or near to full value. If you accept that he has been honest, we still have 5 years to go. All the best.
I now think nick mather should get the boot up his,,,,, he gets citi to fend of low ball takeover i think that's a bullsh8t, I just don't believe this guy anymore, every interview he keeps mm mm mm mm all the time, can't get straight answers from him, he said ncm not happy cause they wanted more cheap shares? So why did he dilute us at 21.50p in recent placing? Why not raise money like in previously with bhp at significant premium or why doesn't he do a joint venture and I'm sure majors won't refuse, his got too much ego and he thinks he owns the company or he thinks its his familys asset, I'm so fed up with him, him and his cronies are paid too much
Still good buying interest at or above 23p...?21 Jul '20
Virtually all the buys this morning have been done at between 22.95 and 23p....that in itself tells a story, but here the MMs go trying to take it down again...lets see how long that lasts and how much stock they pick up...
You have to take into account when they were issued to put them in context. For example, there was a huge swathe of 60p warrants issued in Nov 18. At the time the share price was hovering around 40p and the 3 year time frame for a 50% appreciation looked poor...speculation at the time was that NM was putting in a 3 year deadline to get the whole thing packaged up and ready for sale...this still might be the case of course.
My suspicion is that the MMs are deliberately holding this at or under 23p, because they have a large seller and they know there is news flow pending, so want to get shares 'banked' ready fro the spike...
The immediate trigger for the share price will be the Franco Nevada deal announcement...SP marked up and day traders come back on board...
But unless Nick has been sniffing glue for the last year or so, the best justification for a potential multi bagger is the huge stock of outstanding options at 60p...especially that far ahead you don't price them at 60p unless you expect to make a significant gain, which would either be on a takeover bid or the DFS...
The latter takes account of the December 2021 expiries, but there is a huge wedge due to expire in early August and look at the one which is specifically geared to a "change of ownership"
AIMHO as usual...
Current options exercisable at 60p 8 August 2020 44,500,000 (The options vest on the earlier of: (a) 18 months, or (b) a Change of Control Transaction) 6 November 2021 82,875,000 20 December 2021 11,375,000 20 December 2021 3,150,000 TOTAL: 141,900,000 currently worthless but £85.14 million at 60p...
the reason I use 6% is becasue the 6% was used recently in Chila and is standard for these types of projects after PFS stage. Also, I remember NM saying after PFS stage it will be valued at c30-40% and at DFS stage c40-50% of NPV. At 7.5bn x 85% x 40% (for a bidder) / 1.27 for fx rate / 2.26bn shares I get 88p + 40+ for all other prospects if we hit 1 big one so all in all 90p-130p realistic by December 31st if a bid comes. If no bid then 50p-75p.
It is about the time when the 40pence and some of the 60pence options are due to expire? Haven't seen who they have been allocated to but I think we can suggest which Director would have gotten the lion's share. At least should they not be exercised then that small dilution to the rest of the shareholders will have been avoided. Am waiting the the coming annual report to be released to see how many shares have been purchased by Mather from his $3 million shares as per his salary package with SOLG. This is the third of 3 years which he is owed the 3 million but there has been no allotment made to him.....perhaps he is accumulating same, 4 years = 12million dollars (US) to buy the 60p options which are due in Dec., 21.
Good morning everyone, I had calculated between 48-60 pence share price after PFS, however with a NPV of 8 billion if correct. I make PFS 20-30% of NPV so 8 billion dollars is roughly 6.4 billion pounds, so 20%= 1.28 billion pounds and 30% gives us 1.92 billion pounds divide by roughly 2.1 billion shares. gives us a range of around 60 pence to 90 pence a share, as market cap. Looks interesting.
What was the typical percentage on NPV assigned to the mcap at PFS stage again - 20%?
If the NPV is upped to $6b that puts the base mcap at $1.2b (48p/share), or $2b (80p/share) for an NPV of $8b. That's without any extraneous factors like bidding or results at Porvenir etc. Sounds good to me.
Hi Quady, Go to the sensitivity tables in this announcement and the NPV at 8% if $4.349bn at 8%. At 6% it goes up to $5.998bn. At a 6% discount rate at gold 40% higher than 1,300 we add another 383m x 4 = $1.532bn.
5.998 + 1.532 = $7.53bn.
Doesn’t include recoverability or lower capex costs.