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Red,
They bought 6.3% of Solgold because they liked what they heard from the Ecuadorean minister for mining, they must have got the reassurance needed to progress further imo
Atb
So I repeat...why did Jiangxi buy 6.3% of Solgold...?
Doesn't anyone have an opinion or an alternate explanation...?
Thanks Orthern for your constructuve response.
I can assure you my glasses aren't rose tinted, although you might be forgiven for thinking so with 2.3 million shares...
I totally agree "things may not be as great as we were once told they might have been." and am prepared to believe the growing hype being generated by people in the know, including a M&A specialist appointed to advise both SOLG & CGP.
I also believe that, given the undoubted asset we have here and neither BHP nor NCM walking away, plus Jiangxi buying in and Mitsui saying they want a slice of the action, there are two convergent reasons for shelving PFS2 and Porvenir PEA.
First, energy and other costs have risen sharply and the copper price has fallen to BELOW the $3.60 assumption in PFS1.
So I'm certain that PFS2 would have come out with a worse result and that would further undermine the SP...
And there is absolutely no need for PFS2 if we press on for DFS...so why spend the money...?
Or...given that CGP's SP was falling and they would struggle to raise any cash to develop their prospects other than selling SOLG shares at beaten down prices; and...Mather's dream of being a major miner has been quashed (and he aint getting any younger...), they have been persuaded by Sangha that the sum of the parts is greater than the whole, especially when you amalgamate the 85% and the 15%...and that the best way to monetise the assets at anywhere near decent value is to provoke a bidding war.
And I've never said there are majors circling SOLG...
I just think when the 2nd best new copper project and the 9th best new gold project, let alone Porvenir, Helipuerto, Rio, etc receives its first bid, it will trigger a competition (unless its a knockout bid).
There is no denying a looming massive copper shortage and that the majors' existing resources of copper and gold are being run down at an alarming rate with little imminent replenishment on the horizon.
And while RIO tries to make sense out of the mess that Toyu Olgui is, in remote Mongolia, surely such a rich asset in stable Ecuador, with potnetially untold further riches from the Andean Belt, must look incredibly attractive....?
So who will break ranks first...Jiangxi, BHP, Mitsui or someone else who doesn't even have a stake.
After all, BHP didn't before they waded into the much smaller Noront opportunity...
Sorry for the silence Red, I’ve been away…
Of course I’d take 80p now… I’d take 40p today.
My only point is I am not fully convinced there are the multiple majors circling us, willing to enter a bidding war.. I’m starting to doubt our assets now the PFS and PEA have been buried… I don’t buy management’s excuse it’s to save cash… as we had been told they were on schedule and due to be released any day.. so are paid for. It reminds me of the French translation excuse back in the day.
As I’ve said multiple times, I hope your right and I’m wrong…. That way we all make more money.
I will say having an alternate counter view to yours, one that is not rose tinted, does not make me disruptive.. it makes me open to accepting things may not be as great as we were once told they might have been.
Ok how to attribute value to mining discoveries at various stages.
First when we were at PEA, we were about 10% of NPV.
Today at PFS at the lower end we are 30% of NPV and at the higher end 40% of NPV.
So NPV from memory (Please adjust if I am wrong) is 4.3 billion dollars.
So, convert dollars to pounds at 1.21 dollars to the pound is 3,559,838,399.89
Shall we call it 3.5 billion pounds.
Let's do the 30% calculation first:
30% of 3.5 billion pounds is 1.05 billion pounds.
We currently have 2.296 billion shares in issue.
So, 1.05 divided by 2.296 = 45.73 pence a share shall we say 46 pence.
Now the calculation at 40%.
40% of 3.5 billion pounds is 1.4 billion pounds.
So, 1.4 divided by 2.296 = 60.97 pence a share shall we say 61 pence a share.
Let's remember this is for Alpala only and doesn't take into account Porvenir or any other tenement.
So, what happens if we carry on to DFS well the calculation is 50% of NPV.
Do the calculations yourself.
Now these are rough estimates based on various stages of exploration.
It does not include the IRR and I feel that Alpala's last PFS would Favour the reduced build and faster open cut to production.
So, I have given minimum bids, however I don't believe any major holder would sell out to any other major holder at these levels and could gain an advantage in a JV with us on Alpala.
This is what makes the most sense to me, given the current circumstances.
RK, I'm pretty sure it's because they love throwing their money away.
On a serious note, it would be fascinating to know what they've been told so far about our strategy. Obviously they'll know all about the SR, but the key element will be what we 've said to them about their role.
Have we said to them this will provide you with a foot in the door when the exit process begins? Have we given them first right of refusal on an informal basis?
Red it’s a win win for them
Either they bid low and get it or force a bid from BHP and make a tidy profit on a very short term investment
So I repeat...why did Jiangxi buy 6.3% of Solgold...?
Heres the stuff for Quady DBW...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-solgold-m-a-newcrest-idUSKBN2482A6
and the result?
https://www.mining-journal.com/gold-and-silver-news/news/1393110/newcrest%E2%80%99s-biswas-bats-off-solgold-sale-rumours
https://www.miningnews.net/m-a/news/1393093/newcrest-has-no-plans-to-sell-solgold-stake
https://www.miningnews.net/feasibility/news/1404549/newcrest-backing-solgold-strategy
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/zw1hjbgq8to9upukxgf90a2
"If BHP or anyone else makes a play or an attempt then we'll just assess it at the time."
Q, it will simply be your valuation and will have no bearing on what other people think.
This is the problem with attempting to assign a value to companies - ultimately it doesn't depend on spreadsheets...it's what people are prepared to accept.
Full value is what the highest bidder is prepared to pay …. Unfortunately
Sorry addicknt I do know what full value is I will post my calculations.
Q, as ever, your argument hinges on the definition of "full value". The problem being that no one has any idea what that is, including you.
I'm not going to address the 'diverse book' stuff again - we've gone over it far too many times.
Bozi …. Not liking it and not thinking it’ll happen are two completely different things
Folks, Red is spamming the BB because he doesn't like the fact that many posters are seeing the benefit of the spin out solution.
It doesn't work for him so the toys are coming out of the pram. Simple as that.
Bozi wouldn’t be happy with it but might be where we end up …. 50-80p my guess
So, with Redknight advancing takeover battles at 80p plus like they're nailed on certainties, please recommend this post if you would be happy with a takeover outcome in the 40-60p range.
Bubble but NCM have stated that they are not selling their stake and are looking to add if the opportunity were too present itself.
Why do you think that BHP and NCM were eventually excluded from the latest fundraise.
They both wanted a bigger percentage and instead got diluted.
addicknt that has what I have been saying for years.
We have a diverse book and NCM is part of it.
They know how to attribute value to their holding.
They will not sell their holding cheap.
That is my whole argument about the diverse book and applies to other main holders.
So, to answer your question directly.
If you get 75% of the holders accept a bid, then NM's various holdings. BHP, BlackRock and others have accepted the bid.
That means it's not a low-ball offer NCM would probably accept.
Where your argument falls down is the other main parties will not sell out to a low-ball offer and so we won't get 75% acceptance.
No one has said we expect a full value offer, so why would any of our major investors sell out cheap.
This is partly why I see the JV path to production as being the most likely outcome at this moment in time.
Q, just out of interest, how do you think NCM would react if a takeover was launched and accepted by 75%, of shareholders? Would they cash-in, or continue holding in a private company where their voice would be irrelevant. Bear in mind, the new owners would dilute them out of sight.
I would take 40p because i'm sick of reading your drivel every day. I don't know where you and some others have the time to post nonstop every day about what if fantasies, I read this board logged out but it's time to stay logged in and have my first go at the filter button.
Good riddance and Goodbye Redknight. yawwwwwwwn
Quady do you honestly think they would state that?,they don't have to Red I right ,its his opinion that we all agree on except you ,all you want to do is pick an argument here
Q …. They were undecided what to do with their investment after their board member stepped down.
They then said they had decided to hold their shares as a “ strategic investment “
Redknight your making it up again.
Show me anywhere that says NCM have decided to hold as a strategic investment.
NCM have said on more than one occasion that they are not selling their holding and will look for opportunities to increase.
Hallelujah Bubble...post of the day...
Time for a coffee...