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Sorry CMG...Bozi is filtered...
No, CMG, it was you who brought the '40p range' up in your post at 13:30.
All I did was gave you a valuation basis for that sort of figure based on a post merger issued share capital.
You still haven't shared these figures with us all. Why are you so desperate to cling to them? Is it because you really don't know? There's no shame in admitting that, you know.
Redknight1
You are asking the wrong person that question?
I didn't say we would only reach 40p .
That was BOZi
I agreed , that would be a price many would sell if 40p range was reached.
BOZI
Thank you for answering.
I see you have resorted to the first form of defense . (attack..)
I'm not novice hunter ...
So you show the world, since you have called me out!! That I'm holding multiple accounts, and novice hunter.
LSE admin can easily resolve any queries you have on me.
I'm the one and only CMG.
I will give you time, to say you are wrong on that comment on this thread .
Almost 8 months...
Take out the spike in April and its at an almost 2 year high...
SOLG at 20.15 on TSX...
CMG - are you OK there? You seem really incapable of dealing with nuance.
In my last couple of posts I have said that on a pure valuation basis, assuming a discount to the latest NPV given the stage we're at, a valuation of $1.5bn might be about right for Cascabel.
I'm also of the view that if Jiangxi can add the competitive tension they've surely been brought onboard for, then it may be possible to squeeze more, provided that any interested parties extend themselves during a bidding process.
That's it. I didn't think I'd have to be so explicit but there you go.
I categorically am interested in what you have to say. I wouldn't have asked you otherwise. I don't know what you think I am, but I'm no manipulator.
I also haven't told anyone what to say or do, so you can retract that thank you very much.
Then you can run along and log into your Novicehunter account. Cheers.
Theres not going to be a J/V...
CMG
CMG"We had 40p not so long ago, without a JV on board..
Just curious why you say we would only reach that price. "
Probably for the same reason that we fell to 12.95 (down 68%) in the last 9 months before bouncing....
Even with all the bid talk we're still sub 20p...
Not much volume but CGP at 6 month high
RK- its the same old pattern each and every day-I saw the 170k AT sell and thought here we go again.
Someone wants it up but, there are those dark forces who at this time do not want to let Solg off its leash!!
It does not take much to keep this down in a price range which suits the suitor as along ast the DMA merchants are in play.
Not to worry- we know whats coming but its the when I care about-nothing else.
BOZI...
So you are now saying it will be sold for more than 40p. make yer mind up?
And let's be honest ... You really are not interested in my thoughts or how I believe , we will get more...
For the record,
I don't do the tit for tat debates on a chat forum.
You play the game how you want and I will do the same.
But let's not be on here telling folk sell sell sell before 40p, as you... just might cost a few folk a bit of money.
CMG
Nah sorry CMG. I'm not buying that.
I've been clear as day here. I want them to spin the regionals off. I'll hold my SOLG until they're sold and then hold the regionals NewCo.
I'm just interested to hear from you, off the back of you thinking 40p was clearly too low, what your figures are looking like.
Cascabel can achieve more than 40p by the way, but there will need to be a fight and preferably one that ends with one fighter floored rather them calling it quits without laying a glove on each other.
BOZI .
Like everyone else here ..
My crystal ball , can't see how much someone is willing to bid.
But I hope you all get that double up soon...
Some will cash out early and others might hold a bit longer .
That's the name of the game .
But we all know what hand you want to play now .
40p sell sell sell ..
Let's roll the dice and hopefully, we all comes out smiling. No matter exit strategy.
P.s
I have my own workings and exit plan.. but for the benefit of doubt , and not to lead anyone along.
Like any poker player will say!!.
Keep them cards close to you're chest . Gl
CMG - because 40p was the price for 85% of ENSA plus the Porvenir discovery.
If SolGold sold say 80% of ENSA for $1.2bn, giving it an implied value of $1.5bn, that gives us an SP of somewhere in the 45p region. The company would then be under significant pressure to pay a special dividend and so everyone would only have the choice of trading out or holding and receiving the dividend, followed by a catered SP as it goes ex-div.
Then SOLG are still on the hook for 20% of future costs plus everything else they're trying to do. Market won't particularly like that.
So, the question that remains for you CMG, do you think SOLG could sell Cascabel now for a more than $1.5bn, and if so please can you provide your workings?
CMG - I think that really depends on what then happens to the regionals. If we entered into a JV where we kept 5-10% of Alpala (though why on earth a major would want to partner with us I don't know) then you'd hope that the company could then turn its attention to finding a second Tier 1 deposit.
Without regional drilling activity we'd just be sitting here waiting 7 years or so for news that we'd started producing. Yes there would be catalysts on the way (mining license, permits, DTM) but it would be one hell of a slow burn (and we'd be working to whichever major had taken us over's timeline).
Bozi's suggested way forward is spot on. Spin off the regionals from Cascabel. Sell SOLG (i.e. just Cascabel). Allow those here for the longer term to potentially cash in later down the line. This was, originally, the business that many of the long term holders had thought they'd invested in. Nick Mather's multiple exit points. If done properly it would be a fantastic ride (providing we found more feasible deposits, of course).
From a purely personal perspective the smaller our remaining percentage the better as our costs would be reduced the same, and I think, would be viewed better by the markets.
Why just circa 40p? We have been diluted since, and the reason for the spike to 40p previously was Porvenir excitement… which has faded away, and its PEA has just been buried.
Without a JV of circa 90% to a major, or a possible sale, I don’t believe Solg have anyway back to the 40s without new exploration finding something like Warintza.. and currently, we are an exploration company that is doing no exploration.. and despite announcing recent funding, didn’t commit to restarting any…. I believe if they had announced plans to drill our asset next to Warintza, whilst holding the strategic review, our price would not be sub 20p right now…
I feel it’s almost like our board have gone ‘all in’ and put everything on ENSA, and currently have no plan B.
Ortherncopper
We had 40p not so long ago, without a JV on board..
Just curious why you say we would only reach that price.
I agree many will sell on 40p range , but just let's new blood in .. who see the 40p investment a good hold once JV announced, also... It would depend on how much percentage sol hold? It might be a free carry for a much smaller percentage. Aimo GL.. CmG
F***ing ALGOS taking this down again...
Fomad, I can’t see the share price getting much higher than 40p if a JV is announced with a supermajor…. and as it’s already been said.. it probably won’t stay up there very long, as many race to bank the spike. Any JV would have to be fully funded by the major to see any sizeable jump in share price to the 40s, ideally with Solg paying costs from future profits, rather than up front dilution and debt.
sire...
Its not so much the 'value' of Cascabel in a JV, its much more choosing your exit point or waiting years with a stagnating share price while the project is developed...
Nice to see things moving in right direction.
Hopefully make it into the 20s this afternoon.
23p inbound, by end of week. imo.. if momentum keeps up.
Red,should Break it this week imho
1.2% copper from surface, it's in Ecuador, it's huge, it will be a super pit. https://solarisresources.com/news/press-releases/ but guess who owns the mineral rights on adjacent territory? - Solgold.
Personally I'd look to dispose of the majority of my holding upon news of a JV. There'd probably be a decent bounce.
But then you're on a mission from hell to build a mine in the middle of butt **** nowhere, liable for construction costs, with a partner who will happily drag you along and chip away at your share.
Whilst not a JV, check out PUR for an example of mine building gone wrong. Or Rio's mongolia debacle.
Auction style takeover however doesn't have an upper limit on value and is a clean outcome for PI's.
We hear lots of predictions for a takeover price, but what is a realistic range if SOLG enter into a JV? Are we looking at 50p + or are those levels only achievable for full takeovers, or at least the full sale of cascabel.