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Autobots lovin the trading today ....
Good posts Fort. I do also wonder whether politically this is quite a savvy move for Lasso with an eye on re-election. The thinking behind that being as he is someone who is right/centre-right in Ecuador, the expectation is that this generally leads to closer ties with the US (or 'the West'). Through signing this trade deal with the Chinese, he takes away some of the political ammunition from his opponents on the left, and opens the door for serious state-sponsored investment from the East.
That might be a very blunt analysis as my knowledge of Ecuadorian politics is hardly a strong suit. If any of our posters on the ground have any further insight I'm all ears.
The chinese are fast becoming Lasso's best friends. Personally speaking, I think Lasso would be wise to keep 'competitive' bidding alive and well as it's the one thing that will keep the chinese grounded and paying fair price rather than getting everything on cheap.
BHP might not get a look in at all if Lasso has already 'leveraged' Alpala in some deal or another. Remember.... SOLG are just the licence holder and Ecuador own Alpala and it's their say so / red tape that will either sanction development or make the operators life a misery. We are just shareholders and many of us won't be here in 20 years time but Ecuador's mining future and future partners will be so important to understand the bigger picture here. I guess it comes down to... does Lasso want international mining companies like BHP, Anglo and others or does he want a heavily weighted chinese cartel with sprinkles of minor international company interest or both and is the latter possible??
Completely agrees Fort, however the first copper play Mike Henry referenced in a November interview I recall was SOLG when asked about their pivot in mining strategy and that was after big bad Bob publicly winding them up so there must be some interest still. They've come this far and although I think there are higher powers pulling the levers here now, BHP must now be thinking about their options once the Chinese bid lands. Thought it was strange of WI to say we were at stage 2.9 of a 3 stage process a few weeks ago on Twitter, but he's on the inside of this and it's starting to make sense. Not long now... added another 100k on Tuesday for the third final time :-)
Soon. All the very best for 23 all. C
Might just be my positive outlook of late for SOLG but surely I can't be the only one that sees recent 'chinese/ecuador' news along with a bucket load of red tape being cut up as a little coincidental with SOLG entering the potential 'sale' phase. Let's be quite clear here, the current producing mines in Ecuador are delivering 'not very much' for lasso et al. The only asset in Ecuador right now that could transform the mining industry several times over is of course ... SOLG's Alpala.
Last May/June BHP met up with Lasso for a cosy chat. A month to two later, BHP decide they would go for Oz Minerals. A month after that, SOLG suddenly adopted a fast and smart approach and got the chinese involved. Just a hunch... but I think even Lasso might be tired of BHP's games and with a little guidance from his business partners (inc Maxit et al) Ecuador appears ready to see the Chinese take the mining industry forward... with speed one would presume.
When you read between the lines, it does look like Lasso has decided which way he wants to go. That might not work out well for us if other interested parties know that the chinese have the highest senior Ecuadorian backing.
Pro's and con's with this but if I were BHP and genuinely interested in taking Alpala forwards, I'd be pretty worried now. It's slipping away from them faster than even they thought possible. The advancements (politically and via SOLG's Oct merger news) has been breath-taking. Fast and smart indeed!
I guess the question is... will the chinese be paying fair price or will Lasso be happy with them gaining a discount in return for more rapid progress??
The big boys are in the mix now.
Well the FTA will hopefully be good for us but I fear that Ecuador are putting a long term noose around their necks hey ho we’ll all be long gone and slightly richer by then !!!
https://www.voanews.com/a/china-ecuador-set-to-sign-free-trade-agreement-/6903725.html
Good informative posts, China is getting more of a solid foot in Ecuador and is getting all set up for a very long term partnership, wish them both a fruitful trade deal.
Atb
Clearly china sees an opportunity up for grabs while the west dithers.
The Article is dated today..
Let’s hope this paragraph is relevant..
For China, Ecuador offers an opportunity to diversify sources of strategic minerals, such as copper and iron ore, Jiang said. "It is expected that more Chinese companies will expand investment in Ecuador following the agreement," Jiang said.
The negotiations between China and Ecuador on a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) have proceeded smoothly, Mao Ning, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Wednesday during a press conference.
The response came after the ministry was asked if it could confirm that the two countries may sign an FTA.
With the deal, Ecuador's exports will get preferential access to China, and the South American country's manufacturers will be able to acquire machinery and other products at a lower cost.
The agreement will allow preferential access for 99 percent of Ecuador's exports to China, especially agricultural products such as shrimps, bananas, roses and flowers, cocoa and coffee, Ecuador's production ministry said in a statement.
Jiang Shixue, professor at the Center for Latin American Studies at Shanghai University, said that the deal gives full play to the economic complementarities of both countries.
"It will help Ecuador's agricultural products get easier access to the massive Chinese market," Jiang told the Global Times on Wednesday.
For China, Ecuador offers an opportunity to diversify sources of strategic minerals, such as copper and iron ore, Jiang said. "It is expected that more Chinese companies will expand investment in Ecuador following the agreement," Jiang said.
China and Ecuador began negotiations in February 2022, according to Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). Bilateral trade rose by 44.5 percent to reach $10.95 billion in 2021 and China remained the second-largest trading partner for Ecuador.
Ecuador is an important partner of China in investment and trade in Latin America. Their cooperation covers a wide range of areas, including electricity, energy, mining and transportation.
The FTA deal would also have a spillover effect to deepen cooperation between China and other Latin American countries, Jiang said.
The conclusion of the China-Ecuador free trade negotiations comes as the latest FTA deal between China and a Latin American country.
China previously signed free trade agreements with Chile, Costa Rica and Peru.
In October 2006, the China-Chile FTA came into effect, the first free trade agreement signed between China and a Latin American country. Subsequently, the China-Peru FTA entered into force in March 2010, and the China-Costa Rica FTA went into effect in August 2011.
Since the agreements took effect, the three countries have seen their annual exports to China grow by double-digits, according to the MOFCOM.
Oops...I can't access the last bit
The reform to the regulation of exploration and mining concessions in Ecuador, which came into effect at the end of 2022, is seen as positive by the sector.
“It’s an attempt to give the concessionaire certainty but also to clarify the deadlines,” Jorge Barreno, a private consultant for the mining sector, told BNamericas.
The regulation establishes that the beginning of the initial exploration stage will be when administrative processes such as obtaining environmental permits and a certificate of non-affectation of water resources are completed, contrary to what happened before when the deadlines ran while the various permits were being processed.
Until the reform, up to 2-3 years could go by without obtaining the different administrative permits and the concessionaires, meanwhile, could not carry out any activity in the field, Barreno said.
Meanwhile, the lawyer for Ecuador's mining chamber, Andrés Ycaza, told BNamericas that the regulations give the sector greater governance.
The new regulations will especially favor concessions that are moving from initial to advanced exploration.
These companies will benefit because the deadlines for advanced exploration will run from when they already have the permits and in the meantime they will be able to continue carrying out scout drilling, geophysics, geochemistry and sampling, among other things.
"Thanks to the reforms, exploration will not stop and that is very important," Ycaza said.
Among other things, the new regulations establish that in the cases in which mining license-holders wish to pass to the advanced exploration period, they must submit a request to the energy and mines ministry no less than 60 days before the exploration period expires.
Once the application is received and if it is complete, the ministry will request that, within 15 days, the Agency for the Regulation and Control of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources issue a technical report regarding compliance with activities and minimum investments made, and compliance with legal and economic obligations in the initial exploration period.
Once the favorable technical report is received, within 10 days the administrative resolution must be issued, authorizing the change from the initial exploration stage to the advanced exploration period, as well as the legal and economic obligations that the concessionaires have in the new stage.
The reforms give mining companies more certainty regarding the terms of the exploration stages and their investments, according to Barreno.
Ecuador currently has only two large-scale mines in operation: the Fruta del Norte gold operation and the Mirador copper mine, although there are a number of projects at various stages of exploration which are expected to give the sector a boost.
Afternoon...sorry if already posted
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/ecuadors-new-mining-regulations-seen-as-positive-for-sector
Pinot
:0)
Slug super bullish on the other side...
"Think so Sean, it's coming now. ...The first bid will be sooner than you imagine."
The biggest missed timelines are for the FS, DTM and first ore. These have been missed by many years. A few funding rounds have been missed by months/years too.
Ans we would have had to pay a much higher pri ce to get CGP...
I believe Nicks terms then were higher than we're getting them now...and they wanted a minimum of more than three times the current price...
Meanwhile Toronto seems pretty bullish on SOLG...cloed at 19.84p equivalent...fireworks ahead...?
Morning Not2sure.
Sorry not condescending at all.
Many on here purposely misleading folk, pretending they know what they are talking about.
I try to inject some understanding and reality as to how we are here, and just as importantly how we got here.
I believe this is a good investment, but for all the reasons I have posted, that we still have a way to go.
I also am unsure about certain aspects, but unlike the folk that mislead, I am honest about my misgivings.
Unfortunately that leaves me open to attack.
Let's wait for the strategic review to be published.
This will hopefully give us a clearer path, because at the moment that's what we require.
All the best.
Q , a little condescending I feel ..Yes there are plenty hopeful of a bid but banging on about supposed missed timelines for that bid coming suggesting that you are right it is not going to come is a little petty not that I can remember anyone specifically saying it will happen by any certain date which would be a stab in the dark anyway.
I think there are also a couple of holes in your thinking..many companies have had a bid made for them when they are not expecting a bid although of course it would not be a surprise if Solg was on the receiving end and also a company has to have a war chest in the event of any hostile action ..the funds that we have will still be utilised for staffing , admin etc
Is there any news about Porvenir? what is the latest position re PFS etc?
Hmmm do you hold all your shares if they start going in the opposite direction to where you want them to go..don't get me wrong as I have made the same mistake myself in the past but generally I tend to not let my heart rule my head and sell if I think they are going down knowing I can buy back if I still want to be invested but if you call it wrong probably not going to cost too much more to get back in...just seemed a bit strange posting that without really giving any reason
DBW, I agree - he's undergone a sea-change in the intervening years.
Add ….. agree but there’s no way this merger would be happening unless Nick was 100% happy …. I think all bodes very well for the future. Need to get merger signed off then I think an even clearer picture will emerge and any pretence of production or JV’s will be well and truly put to bed
HNY DBW
Why would I sell at a 15k loss? We all know shares go down , they also go back up , that's why most folk hold. I fully expect a rise at some stage Not2 , when is another matter. IMO it's best not to realise any losses.
Doesn't anybody learn.
All those that said we would be sold before Christmas are wrong again.
Those expecting a bid by Jan 9th or on Jan 9th are wrong again.
We are not expecting a bid as we don't even have any indication of a bid.
The clue here is the he 0.6% royalty deal for offtake.
The 50 million is ring fenced for Cascabel.
That means that's where the activity is.
So the only question is how is Cascabel going to play out.
Well we need to wait for the strategic review to see the way Cascabel is going to be funded and show us the direction of travel.
Happy new year everyone.
DBW, one thing to add to you list is the fact that for the first time in three years we've emerged from the AGM with a clear plan and seemingly, without the board being in chaos - albeit I do have some residual concern about the voting pattern relating to board appointments.
At last we have a board who recognise we can't stumble on as before and radical change is needed and it's ironic that this has been brought about by a corporate transaction which, when it was initially mooted by Mather, would have prevented us from getting to this point. In other words, had our hostile bid been successful we would have had the same management structure and the same aimless groping around in the dark. CGP, our sworn enemies, have become our saviours (hopefully!) Weird, innit?