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£1.32 .... tick tock tick tock or is it tap tap tap tap lol!!:)
Gosh this man can't help himself he entitled his cut-and-paste job noront parallels but it seems to be noront parallel as the only thing that links them is instructing Maxit but this blatant ramper wants everyone on the board to assume that solg will follow the exact same path as notont when there are so many clear differences they the level headed people here will understand. It is desperate and I say again it is so stupid to think it can change the share price by every day writing the same ramping stuff on the tiny message board does he think a major mining company will read his noront post and think oh gosh I need to buy solg?? Such a tool thanks for the recommends earlier clear it is not just me seeing through this boring rampy prikk
Hi Lunch, I think it was this...
"You've probably guessed, I'm very experienced in all things SOLG. I do a lot of research. I hope to use this board to exchange views on SOLG updates and news items with similarly knowledgeable posters."
...that struck me as something the LunchMoney of old would never have typed.
Good to have you back, your posts on AGM day were helpful and necessary. Try not to get too wound up by the nonsense.
“ The longer it goes on, the more worried we will probably all get”
That is certainly true… I am just hoping with the new guys on the board, it doesn’t slide off towards Easter before a decision is announced. Solg always slides on no news, and we seem to have no other developments running alongside the review to support the price..
Surely the outcome of the review is a foregone conclusion…
how long does it take to get around a table and decide to monetise the asset…
shouldn’t take more than a couple of weeks after the merger to publicly announce a data room is open for all interested parties with support from Ecuador gov…
Morning all ….. My view may be seen as over simplistic but to me it’s fairly obvious that Bob Sangha / Maxit are on board to find us a (first) bidder and the rest will take care of itself. Sangha is very good at what he does and the asset should sell itself….. whether the strategic review ever comes to fruition who knows. The Chinese will not want to settle for 5/6% and BHP will most likely not want this taken from under their noses.
I realise there are plenty who see this differently but that’s what makes for decent debate.
Agreed, hence I think it best to await the merger conclusion and then see what cash SOLG have left. I think that's the reason why the sp is going no where fast and why several involved have arbitrage trades in place (shorts). Post merger, SOLG might have $80m+ at best. Or they could have $60m etc. All depends on who wants shares vs cash and how SOLG wants to go about it up to 20% level.
$50m is ring fenced for ENSA so to do some exploration in 2023 while they seek. buyer or asset sale for ENSA (my assumption pending SR), they will need to raise another $25m+ is my guess. Much depends on the companies ambitions for doing exploration and the their appetite or skill at doing partner deals with interested parties like Solaris, or Lundin or Codelco or Chinese. Plenty ops out there to get those 50 odd licence blocks moving in right direction.
Fort, I take your point about the shares CGP currently own, although we don't know what the intention is at the moment. As long as they're held in Treasury they count towards the total number of shares in issue.
It'll last however long it needs to last Orthern.
The longer it goes on, the more worried we will probably all get.
Lets be honest. Company says to all interested shareholders and the rest of the market send us your best proposal and they draw a line in the sand. Anything submitted goes forward for BoD discussion.
Personally, I reckon the company will give it 30 days from the merger ratification assuming it goes ahead and then how long it takes from there will depend on the strength of what is being put to the company.
Current issued share capital is 2,476,051,501. For sake of round numbers and some cash payments on merger instead of shares lets go with 524m shares to be issued post merger and 26m shares paid in cash at 16p.
That gives us 3bln shares in issue (options lapse or get added so lets them out of it). Then take the circa 5% CGP SOLG shares (diluted) and let's say they go into treasury. So that's 2.85bln which is what I was indicating.
Market rated SOLG at almost £900m not long ago, so lets us that as a top benchmark. Take 15% of that equates to £135m, add in 5% shares worth around £30m, and that's close to £165m in 'merger' worth. If the idea is that CGP will hold approx 20% of post merged SOLG company, then take the £900m I mentioned above and x 20% = £180m.
Throw in the 10% premium for the consolidated 100% ENSA interest rather than fragmented, add in the $85m cash raised and bingo, you are not that much shy of £1bln which is around 33p a share diluted.
So that's the bulk of it... what was once 42p levels (the high) is no 33p. So I think it's fair to say that if at 42p the market was expecting a double on fair value (84p) then the same double on fair value now would be 66p.
All in all... not ideal. But I think Maxit are capable of getting a high 30's bid tabled which at end of the day is a starting gun for BHP and others to counter. If they don't... then it goes for 33p. Majority of NCM, Norges and BHP will be in profit based on 33p but not much gained. Hence I think most would want at least 50% premium to that especially considering inflation of late.
Orthern, not that I've seen. In fact, we're not even sure when it started and therefore, how far down the track we are.
Has any estimate of time been given for the completion of the strategic review?
Not that Solg ever meet it’s milestones..
Give me a Christmas rally! Come on, I can't have been THAT naughty this year...
Fort, we currently have approx 2.5bn in issue and, assuming an all-share take-up, will be issuing a further 550m shares. Of course on a fully diluted basis we need to take into account the options as well.
Since the announcement the market has marked us down whilst CGP has been marked up. In simplistic terms, the deal is better for them than us...although I don't see it that way.
As you say, there will be no re-rate until some form of corporate action emerges from the SR.
addicknt,
I thought the projected shares in issue were circa 2.8bln with CGP gaining 550m shares??
SOLG previous 'market' valuation was between 18p and 44p based on a 3 or 4 year trading basis. It was also based on 85% ENSA interest and excluded the 6.7% (approx) CGP SOLG holding.
The extra shares in issue for the merger and recent funding round should be close to neutral and have no effect if you assume that the 15% ENSA interest was approx what CGP were valued on in first place inc the 6.5%.
You can't just look at the shares in issue number and then ignore the minority ENSA acquisition and stock in treasury. Also, some would say that by holding 100% of ENSA it simplifies the selling and potential takeover process so an added premium compared to prior should also be included.
All in all, the market is not reflecting anything other than pure boredom at present. The market is a woeful valuation tool so do not rely on it. The market rated Noront at 23 cents. It sold for 110 cents. Markets are pretty poor at doing proper asset valuations. They are good at spread bets, shorting, CFD's, algo bots and all the other casino bookie type things.
Noront parallels...
August 2021:
"Wyloo Metals has engaged Maxit Capital LP to act as its financial advisor"
Submits its offer:
"Consideration of Cdn$0.70 in cash per share represents a 192% premium to Noront’s unaffected closing price on May 21, 2021 and a 27% premium to BHP’s Cdn$0.55 per share take-over bid price"
Luca Giocovazzi says:
"“Wyloo Metals didn’t make its cornerstone investment in Noront earlier this year to accept an offer that represents a fraction of the potential value of Noront’s Ring of Fire assets. We invested in Noront because it has the potential to be Canada’s next great mineral hub and produce the metals critical to decarbonizing our planet.”
"“In April this year, we were deeply concerned when the Noront Board proposed to farm out Noront’s exploration projects to BHP for only Cdn$25 million. Rather than consenting to such a transaction, we decided to make an offer to acquire the Company. Our fears were justified when the Noront Board completed a deeply discounted 5% placement to BHP, giving away a strategic toehold in the Company to an obvious suitor."
December 2021 Wyloo knockout bid...360% higher than Noront's SP in May 2021...
"Wyloo’s proposal at C$1.10 per share trumps BHP’s bid of C$0.75, which currently has the support of the Noront board. Earlier, BHP said it had been unable to win backing from Wyloo — already a major shareholder in the Canadian company — for its offer. Wyloo’s latest offer is nearly 60% above the C$0.70 per share proposal it made in August. "
The best example of how Bob Sangha brings home the bacon for shareholders...
$2 billion plus funding, including massive equity dilution, however its achieved, would severely depress the SP until first copper was mined...
Jjust look at the history of ATYM...
1981 - well said.
Thanks Red. We will see. Hoping it is done this tax year with the forthcoming changes to cgt you previously referred to.
Q “This is ludicrously low, as it increases substantially should we obtain funding and start production” …. Pretty sure Bob Sangha not on board to steer us to production. Anyway hopefully all the bickering will be done in a few months when Solgold is a thing of the past
Q, one other point: It's exactly how the market currently values the company.
Q, you misunderstood what I was trying to establish. I was simply looking at how the market currently regards the combined entity. And yes, it's hopelessly undervalued at the moment.
Wonder if REDKnight checked the volume of that single trade in Canada reported on Christmas day? As part of his ramping narrative he questioned whether the large percentage rise was a clue about good things to come... On a volume of 600 dollars! There is absolutely no way that a genuine former city finance specialist would not look at the volume too which leaves only one conclusion. That message and all others are a laughable effort to try and influence the share price from a crppy message board. Here's a little experiment everyone on here write in all caps that the company is going to go bust tomorrow and see how it influences the share price it doesn't at all. He is a total muppet and more stupid than he is annoying
Good morning all, hoping everyone had a good Christmas.
Addicknt that is not how you currently value Solgold today.
All you have done is take the market cap and divide by the number of shares.
Of course that will always come out at the share price.
We have the NPV which I believe is roughly 3.6 billion pounds.
We then multiply it by 30% to 40% to give us our range for PFS, which is where we are at .
Then divide by 3 billion.
So 30% of 3.6 billion is 1.08 billion divided by 3 billion is roughly 35 pence a share.
40% of 3.6 billion is 1.44 billion divided by 3 billion is roughly 47 pence a share.
So a rough current valuation is between 35 and 47pence a share for Cascabel alone, with no further money spent.
This is ludicrously low, as it increases substantially should we obtain funding and start production.
At a conservative estimate these figures double giving us between 70 to 94 pence a share, which increases as we proceed.
You're right addickt...wrong denominator...£1.35...
Sound comments as usual addickt..
Heres my take...
Jiangxi has been brought in as a stalking horse...when you consider Irwins comments, other players would be hellbent on preventing this tightening the Chinese armlock on copper markets that they already have...
Of course BHP are potential players and even if they dont succeed, they will make any successful bidder pay too dollar....and NCM want the maximum return on their 'Strategic Investment'...
It seems to me that they both voted against the resolutions because they can see the game being played here...to their disadvantage...
Of course Jiangxi are serious about their investment...$30m is peanuts for the Chinese Government, financially and for strategic reasons, including entrenching themselves further in Ecuador..
So I see every probability that a third possible bidder would be sought...when you see what happened with a two way tussle for Noront, a three way fight here could produce a highly satisfactory exit price for us all...
Of course the value a bidder places on a target is a key consideration.
BHP clearly had a limit for OzMinerals and look to have secured a reasonable deal...but this is different...
My judgement is that Wyloo ended up paying more than they intended fir Noront, but in my M&A experience, Boards often end up paying more than intended...its a bit like going to an auction with a maximum price in mind and walking out having paid more because you wouldn't let go...
So Jiangxi are key for me...they undoubtedly have their eyes on the prize and deep pockets, but when a third player enters, the sky is the limit...and Jiangxi would still walk away with a handsome profit...