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And apparently the BHP is "doing nothing much except look at Solgold..."
Morning RK.
It certainly would make more sense to buy the lot at the earliest opportunity from a value perspective. But in this new era of friendship between the two companies, maybe that’s not what Solgold want and BHP may respect that. Going hostile on a junior is still not seen as something majors do. It’s also lower risk for BHP to go piecemeal though for them it will be small beer.
As to the barrick possibility, the biggest thing that supports that is that Bristow is a deal junkie IMO and he wouldn’t necessarily walk away if it got into a bidding war with BHP. However BHP have a head start with their stake and given they probably have equal costs of capital, it may come down to strategic fit. The other point to support BHP is that they have a team in the country and why do that if it’s not a favoured location. Time will tell.
Hi Jerry
I can't disagree with the sense of everything you say there.
My only observation would be, why pick off individual deposits when they would almost certainly have to pay more pro rata than gobbling the lot, but also because it could increase the SOLG SP, upping the ante for BHP's first bid..
Having said all that my favourite is still Barrick...they have the muscle, Henry has publicly stated they are looking at copper/gold as well as gold in future...they could outgun everyone, with any premium a small price paid to get a strategic foothold in Ecuador and own the riches that not even SOLG have discovered yet in their vast portfolio...
Keep it up!
RK
Quite right, Jerry.
As everyone is having a go with their crystal ball......
NC will withdraw and sell up to BHP at a suitable return. NC are governed by returns on equity but BHP have to be in the action. If Ecuador turns out to be one of the hottest mining jurisdictions, then BHP would be shot for not being there. NC are far more nimble and opportunistic. They have a monster in the making at Havieron, Cadia that has been just brilliant for them and some political issues to keep them busy in PNG. Ecuador, through FDN is a side show and takes no management time at the moment. They want five tier 1 mines and are well on track to get that when Red Chris is up and running. I guess if BHP wanted to make a strategic move into gold then they could bid for NC and it would be a neat Aussie solution, but big takeovers in the mining space are usually ego trips not money makers.
So for me the future of Solgold is in the hands of BHP and most people know that. As to when they move and at what price, who knows, but I suspect it won’t be till after the pfs and maybe dfs. They may pick off a deposit at a time or go for the lot.
BHP’s time horizon is so far out there it makes Quady look like some day trader. When they have de facto control of Solgold they won’t care whether they swallow them this year or after they are running Alpala and are in full production.
If the Chinese come in for anything, all it will do is make BHP pay a bit more. Nobody will get anything from Solgold unless BHP let them.
Solgold shareholders will do well, maybe very well, but that may depend on how BHP proceed and drilling results of course.
Just my thoughts. Maybe right, maybe not.
Good weekend all.
I try to be Rich3r. I know I don't always see eye to eye with everyone but there's never any malice.
I have also long been surprised that nobody chanced their arm with a speculative approach at least, particularly with relations as fraught as reported before the recent mediation. I can only think that there must be a different mentality between private investors and corporates. Is a value proposition for us the same as it is for them? I thought it was but maybe I am wrong. I suppose value for us is in stock prices and value for them is in project values and commodity spot and future prices.
I hear you about the picking off of one by the other where BHP and NCM are concerned. I was just wondering if they might move to create a behemoth and almost corner the market ahead of the rumoured supercycle. It would have to suit both sets of shareholders and that is easier said than done, but with the current gold rush in Aus I do wonder if it would be a way of taking a stranglehold of each metal. We know BHP want copper and NCM know gold. I can't help but think there would be some synergy.
As long as SOLG benefit somewhere I'm sure we're both going to be content.
Thanks Bozi - you're actually quite a decent guy i think.
Sooner or later the assets will prove irresistable to one or more of the majors imo and they will make their move. I'm just very surprised that they haven't already - at least for Alpala - because even without a PFS they must surely have completed pretty good due diligence themselves on what assets are there ? But maybe they don't want just Alpala ? Maybe they want the whole shebang, lock stock and barrel? If that's so, then maybe it explains why they continue to bide their time and allow SOLG and its shareholders to pay for the continued exploration and proving up - although their buy-price will continue to grow if the asset value continues to grow. It really must be like a high-stakes poker game for these majors as they wait and wait. It will only take one of them to break out, or even a smaller contender, to start a bidding war imo.
You wonder whether BHP and NCM might merge? I very much doubt it unless one or both were under financial stress - which surely isn't the case ? But who knows what may happen ?
atb
What news are you waiting for BobMuckie?
"BHP tables offer for minnow SolGold"
I'll put the same scenario to you. Should copper become more scarce in the next couple of years and the price of gold climb against the current economic backdrop, can you imagine the worth of Cascabel and the other discoveries in Ecuador?
Gold Dust.
Dont forget that SolGold moved into Ecuador as the last underexplored jurisdiction for porphyries and epithermals in the world and have since pegged the biggest tenement package of any company.
Why rush to give it up?
Build it and they will come.
Cascabel. Porvenir. Who next???????
Well I made the assumption on the basis that you have been around the SOLG discussion for a good few years. I am sorry to hear you're offside on a fair portion (and I mean that sincerely).
If we assume a bullish set of company specific fundamentals, i.e. a viable mine plan and a realistic and shareholder friendly financing package, why wouldn't some company interest become public?
Alpala is the largest undeveloped resource not in the hands of a major. Hopefully the satellite targets can enhance the mining plan (not sure adding major tonnage is hugely essential).
You're so right addickt...
We've left behind 'confetti' RNSs and 'shock and awe' with no follow through...
Into the era of underpromise and overdeliver...
A slew of steady good news to come, especially the Porvenir MRE...
Apart from the much more restrained and professional management of the SP, they've managed a substantial share raise AND a SP rise...much more to come...
Bob, that's no actually true. The two announcements about our relationship with our major shareholders and specifically the one relating to CGP, are probably the most important to have emerged for a very long time. They changed everything.
Shock and Awe my arse. My bum is sore, thanks Nick. Not a lot of news since the AGM, many months ago.
Bozi you shouldn't make assumptions about other people's holdings - how do you know i could currently sell for profit ? A large chunk of my holding was bought 2 years ago at 39p ......
I shall be holding my shares tight for when the bid(s) finally come imo but won't be holding my breath. This is the most frustrating share i've ever held but i shall hold and see it out.
So why don't you sell now and enjoy your profits Rich3r?
You talk about being tired at the apparent slowness of SolGold progressing their assets. Can you give me an example of a company of similar size and resource that has developed an asset of this size and technical complexity, in a jurisdiction still finding it's peace with mining, quicker than SolGold has brought Alpala through?
I'm not talking about waiting another 5yrs by the way, although that would probably take us right into the sweet spot of the copper supply deficit. I am talking about waiting another 12 - 18 months at which point we should have:
1. PFS and advanced (if not complete) DFS on Cascabel.
2. A good idea as to the resource potential at Porvenir ( maybe MRE 2/3 and a PEA or even a PFS
3. Big potential for another significant discovery at one of the other regionals.
I know people want their money and all that but I just think that if someone has a rolling time horizon of wanting or needing something to happen within 1-3 months then they should consider whether they should be holding at all.
thanks schlem - you do come up with some great research imo and fwiw i truly share your (and others) frustrations about the (apparent to me) continued slowness of our company to progress our WONDERFULL ASSETS !
I for one, don't want to wait another 5 years (quoted today by our resident 'production' specialist) or have too much more 'patience' as quoted by another poster today lol.
Can we PLEASE just get on with taking this company and those assets FORWARD - and ASAP !?
gla
Great for Ecuador who will seek to take advantage of this extremist slant -
-
Thurs. June 10 2021
The man who early polling suggests will be Chile’s next president plans to raise mining taxes in coordination with neighboring nations and take equity stakes in copper mines in a bid to retain more mineral wealth.
Daniel Jadue, the current front-runner in polls for November’s elections in Chile, wants to align mining rules with Peru, Argentina and Bolivia so they don’t compete for investments, he said in an interview Wednesday. Like Indonesia has done, he also plans to renegotiate with foreign companies to take stakes in their assets in what would be the industry’s biggest disruption since U.S.-owned mines were nationalized to form Codelco in the 1970s.
If Jadue wins office he would become Chile’s first ever Communist Party president, ratcheting up regulatory risks for global miners like BHP Group and Anglo American Plc. A rewriting of mining rules in a country that accounts for a third of the world’s copper could temper future projects needed to fill supply gaps of a crucial metal in the transition away from fossil fuels.
To be sure, much could change in the five months before elections and, even if he won office, Jadue said he would respect stability contracts signed with miners through 2023.
Still, his emergence reflects a sharp shift away from moderate politics in the wake of civil unrest that begin almost two years ago. The center-right ruling coalition is fighting a bill presented by the opposition to introduce a copper windfall tax, while an assembly elected to write a new constitution is comprised mainly of independents and left-wingers.
With copper prices near record-high levels, some host nations are looking to increase their share of the windfall in an effort to address economic inequalities. Pedro Castillo, who looks set to be Peru’s next president, vowed to nationalize assets early in his campaign before focusing on overhauling the tax system for miners. Peru is the largest producer of copper after Chile.
Read More: Runaway Prices Risk Rattling Copper Market
In Chile’s lithium industry, currently dominated by Albemarle Corp. and Soc. Quimica & Minera de Chile SA, the 53-year-old mayor wants to either expand Codelco’s role or create a national lithium company as part of push to add value to raw material production.
“We will never again allow economic returns that transnationals take from our country, especially those in extractive activities, to continue to function in the same way,” he said. “Here there is an economic return that Chile must rescue.”