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Good afternoon Colonel, may I suggest two ways to defend this. A complete financing package to bring this to production, would see more debt and offtake agreements, and make this less attractive to a major.
Also as a last resort, we could bring in more majors, by issuing more shares, and giving them standstill agreements for 2 years, and thus diluting other majors stakes, and making it impossible to obtain the new shares for 2 years.
That's on top of the diverse register, and speeding up more discoveries. With the money from the new issue.
This can be defended, in my view.
Just a couple of pointers to throw in there for a Sunday morning...
1. Delays to PFS are very likely. Why? Because management have numerous excuses lined up. From Covid, to external auditors/report certification etc etc. End of Sept 2020 was a guideline not a deadline. That all said, there is clearly an incentive for SOLG to get this PFS out before October 14th (CGP offer ceases and pre BHP lock in release).
2. An alternative view would be 'delay' it. Why? Because it's more than likely that BHP needs to see that PFS before making a bid. Buy some time and kick it out to end of Q4 and it provides time to get exploration results in. Further to this, I would presume CGP's plans to launch a EGM end of October will also get kicked out to end of Q4. The game of cat and mouse continues but the one frustrated party in this will be ecuadorian mining govenor. He is not going to be a happy man if he sees timing slip and keeping the gov on board is imperative to NM's plans for future licence / permit approvals.
So yes... it's going into the sharp end and one thing we do know is that there will be an RNS this week for sure as we are guaranteed an updated MRE3 filed Sept 30th at latest covering off TSX's request to remove previous references to MRE2.
Personally, for what it is worth... I think NM thought the Franco deal would wake the market up to the real valuation benchmarks for alpala and help him get away a $40m placing at 35p+ levels. Instead, the market was wise and knew NM needed finance for exploration plans so called his bluff. On top of that, you had the risk of Franco deal not completing as due diligence had not been completed due to Covid issues.
So here we are now, capped at sub 28p and supported above 23p/24p levels so on a 3 month or VWAP basis we are around 25p/26p.
At these low levels, we are a sitting duck. That said, at 50p+ we are a sitting dick. It's not like 50p+ is going to put off BHP or NCM or Barrick etc especially when BHP and NCM both bought in substantial positions in SOLG at 45p.
At the end of the day, NM has defended shareholders interests as best he can. The Franco deal saved us all at least 20% dilution imho. But NM is not superman. He can only do what he can do. Fighting off Super majors with cash of $5bln+ to throw around with ease (per quarter!!) it's like Floyd Mayweather Jnr boxing Alan Partridge.
If BHP wants SOLG there is nothing mather can do in all reality. Any hope fo premium bid prices rests with exploration plans as well as other interested parties like Barrick or Rio. And that's where Citi need to earn their crust.
I agree to an extent , but if I’d bought into a share where the CEO has been saying for years that their intention is to take it to production, I could hardly have any complaints if it happened.
For the record I do not believe we will make it to production, certainly not in our own .
Whatever the case I expect things to become a lot clearer over the next few weeks
We've got funding to BFS now via a major endorsement by a top royalty company. We have no worries about money for at least a year. Some said that the market had already assumed the FN deal was done and dusted, which is why it did not move the dial. Well, that's just the market being dumb. Until it was signed off, there remained material uncertainty and I would imagine that any sensible CEO would have been preserving cash up until that point (particularly re discretionary expenditure like the regionals for example). If BHP/Barrick come in with a bid in the next couple of months - great. If not, I am more than happy to wait and see how this plays out over the next year. There is so much to look forward to: regular regional drill results (we are an explorer once again), total conditional financing package (huge, and something the majors must fear), DFS (with hydroelectric power calcs considerably reducing opex), and the screws being turned on CGP with every month that passes - they are going to get more and more hysterical by the month.
I'm with you Schlemiel, although I could wait another 5 years, I'd rather not.
I just can't think of any reason why majors would not want this and Barrick's CEO summed it up when he talked of the majors needing to have the tier 1's re M and A activity, hinting that this will continue to happen, and needs to for the industry.
Whether one agrees with him or not, it's hard to see how SOLG could stop it happening.
I'm aware of our friends argument on here re diverse book will make it difficult, most of us know this is just nonsense with regard to it being a good enough defence against reasonable offers.
We will all find out soon enough.
bring it on I say.
'I can't wait 5 interminable feckin'n years talking shiiite on this bulletin board. That will push me over the edge ffs'
that's me 'talking shiite' not others
This 'will they, won't they' boll-x regarding a BHP offer started because of the clauses inserted into the Standstill Agreement ffs. It's not a rumour dreamt up by a bulletin board poster or some form of desperate act of ramping. The reference to a BHP offer of one form or another are explicitly stated in a document called the Standstill Agreement agreed to by SOLG and BHP. It can't be any clearer than that.
BHP need to buy SOLG and be done with it. Another 5 years of 'will they, won't they' would be intolerable
Now some might say I bought a position only a few weeks ago and yes that is true but I have contract notes going back years showing SOLG trades and I have lost more on this stock than I have made. Net, I am down around £5k. I want to a see a capital return this time.
I have piled in, 100% (risky, yes) at this point in time because I believe fundamental changes to SOLG's material value may occur. I need this to happen for my own personal circumstances as do most on here. I can't wait 5 interminable feckin' talking shiiite on this bulletin board. That will push me over the edge ffs
DBW - there's a clickable banner at the top of this page. I've not tried it yet.
Can you send the link Miagi
Says Q&A at the top of the page here.
I thought he was just doing a pre-recorded segment?
I also think we will see the PFS by Tuesday because that's when the Investor's Webinar is happening - could be a challenging Q&A session if not...
Agreed Addicknt, we should see the PFS by Tuesday, I predict tomorrow.
The reason why I believe this, is that NM in recent presentations, has always said that he will deliver, by end of 3rd quarter on all occasions.
If there was going to be any delay, he had the chance to say so.
There is no reason to delay the PFS.
The company is in desperate need to raise the share price in advance of the 15th. One of the best ways of doing this is to release the PFS asap (we've been told to anticipate a significant uptick in asset value). It makes no sense to hold it back, particularly when it would add fuel to the claims that the company is hopeless at meeting deadlines. Additionally, if, as some suggest, the release is held back and used as part of a defence story, it would make us look weak.
In my opinion we'll see the PFS soon and NM will hope to use it to drive up market perception and, hopefully, our share price. We need to go into the period post the 15th in as strong a position as possible and you don't do that by holding back positive information.
I know we all have differing opinions here, but every argument put forward can be argued for or against.
Personally, the potential here was insurmountable sat on top of these assets, but alas. Part of me feels there is nothing any of us can do.
Be good to one another Quady / Earthling. I fear that what SOLG owns is just too much for someone with their market cap. It's most likely going to get dirty.
you're the one starting the rudeness, not sure who you think you are?
You're the desperate one, on here all day every day saying the same thing without listening to anything.
Quady, get over yourself! pathetic
Do you think NM was lying when he said we are dangerously low for a take over?
yes or no?
Earthling, I suspect you are wanting a buyout, because you are about to become a desperate seller yourself. You are sounding more desperate by the day. Your behaviour is not that of an experienced investor, otherwise you wouldn't be so rude, to those with thought out ideas.
To say calculations are not required, says everything.
You keep going on about distribution of shares, BHP and NCM already have a piece of the pie.
What don't you understand about this, If BHP and NCM make a decent bid, they will get it.
Quady, there you go again, you clueless.
It's vey simple but you never listen.
If the majors want this, they will get it, no need for calculations.
you really have lost the plot.
Hi Disruptor, agreed, but if we do get taken out, it won't be cheap. I just don't see any evidence of anyone bidding for Solgold, with the current distribution of shares.
BHP, if it wants a larger holding, will cooperate with NM, rather than launch a hostile bid.
I think we will have some surprises in the new year.
We will have an understanding of where the 2.7 billion for financing is coming from.
We would have had the PFS, and proceeding towards the DFS.
We will have the plans to build the mine.
By the end of next year, we will see a team being put in place to construct, with an engineering team in situ.
Hi big D. So true, until the new ownership sign above the door.
Does anyone know if Tesla raised the 5 billion?
Thanks in advance.
Newtoit: SOLGER's never die!
I put the, GLA TRUE SOLGERS, in as I believe, certain people find it amusing.