The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I was being conservative Miagi. I think this may be 7-8 billion. But I cannot but see, that NM is going to exceed expectations. Not long to wait.
Nothing excites the market like a webinar Miagi. Look at the SP over the past couple of months if you don't believe me.
That's up from $7-8b only a couple of hours ago! Anyhow, looking forward to a news packed week...
One thing's for sure - we're getting a webinar on Tuesday!
I believe the PFS is going to be good, we may even get it tomorrow. NM is confident about something.
Miagi, I took a rough calculation from 9 billion dollars.
rcgl2 - once the first bid comes in, whether it's at 40p, 60p or 80p, that will be the end of it. The process will have begun, there will be no going back, and all of the interested players will come out of the woodwork.
"Hmmm 80 pence, with 2.072 billion shares, is roughly 1.6 billion
So with a PFS at the low end of 7 billion, is nearly 24% of NPV."
Quady, you've missed out a basic conversion from $ to £ in your calcs.
Good evening Schlemiel, while its true, that Moreno's government, has changed the mining laws in Ecuador, and made all this possible. I do believe that next February, his party will lose power. It will be closely contested. But the incoming party, will be just as pro mining, as they are more pro business, and want to attract inward investment into the country. So look for tax breaks for investment in Ecuador. I believe this, as they cannot improve infrastructure at this time, as the country has little money for any government expenditure, that isn't absolutely necessary. I am happier in Ecuador, than I would be investing in Brazil.
Again, this is Ecuador not Australia or the Western World. The political risk attached will always prevent SOLG from reaching its fair market value. Even now, there's worry about the politics. It's like an ever present demon that never departs
good evening Quady,
It’s very clear we don’t like each other, so here’s the deal, we need to stop commenting on each other’s posts, you know I think you talk rubbish, don’t listen and don’t have a clue how any of it works.
You feel the same about me, so let’s leave it there
A truce
This is the last time I will comment on your posts
If you continue from tonight you will start getting warnings from admin
You are rude and insulting and yes I bite back at you but it has to stop.
So stop it
No more from now or admin will get involved
If everyone is convinced that this will definitely end up in a major's hands, then why would any holders accept a low ball bid? As Quady said, we aren't financially backed into a corner and we have lots of other potential assets. Solg can reject an offer and carry on its way.
I know people here are saying they've been here years, they'd be happy with 60p just to get out etc etc... But let's say BHP or NCM (or both of them together) bid 60p a share next month after PFS. Why say yes to that? Clearly they want it. Clearly if they don't get it, another major such as Barrick may want it. Clearly 60p is nowhere near the maximum they could afford to pay. So why say yes to 60p, when you virtually know a higher offer will be forthcoming if 60p is rejected?
You are basically being given a choice, a) say yes and sell for 60p, or b) say no and you will be offered more than 60p shortly afterwards. Why would anyone chose a)?
If you think there's no way Solg will take this to production, then why not hold out for at least £1? Realistically, does anyone think if BHP bid 60p and it's rejected, they and all the other majors will be sitting there thinking no way are paying a bit more for this? Of course not, Alpala is worth a decent chunk of that alone and Solg has 12 other prospects. If just one of those is another Alpala then that's double the value and it's likely several of the others will prove very valuable assets.
Hmmm 80 pence, with 2.072 billion shares, is roughly 1.6 billion
So with a PFS at the low end of 7 billion, is nearly 24% of NPV.
We would have got more at the PEA, even if we were distressed and needed funding from a major.
But at least Earthling has provided his thinking.
I agree, probably somewhere around 80p, which is still around £2b valuation.
Inbetween Jerry's 50p and the fair value figure of 160p is a Conservative, yet realistic price.
These assets will end up in a majors hand, without a doubt Earthling. Hopefully in a bidding war, which will reward us the most without going into production (unlikely, but still a possibility) IMO.
60% is fantasy dream land
Quady, your "fair value" works out at £1.6/share (60% of $7b). I don't remember you ever agreeing that anything this low was fair value before - have you changed your mind?!
I made it around 240, but I am still not buying the first round.
I will stick at £40 a share.
And what do you think about Jerry’s 50p?
BHP and NCM are key share holders
It clearly pains him more than it should that many say so on here too.
No need for the rudeness and insults
We all have our own opinions
Let’s wait for PFS and BHP stand still to finish, and go from there
Majors don’t invest for a 14% share, as the Barrick ceo said, tier 1’s will be in the hands of majors.
I forgot one point Miagi, my figures are based on 7-8 billion dollars at PFS, so I am working on 60% of NPV at PFS.
Which I believe one or two posters, would raise an eyebrow at.
But should we get to DFS, then 50-60% is the norm, and we will have other drill results.
If you read all the articles hat have been published it on and we’ve all read on here, then most believe that it will be in the hands of majors.
They usually get what they want.
That about sums up my argument Miagi, there is a bit more to it, for example, why no one, will bid for it, as I cannot think of one major, that has paid full price for any company, at the PFS stage, based on the NPV.
Sure we could get 40% of NPV, at PFS, and I understand that many would consider that fair value.
My argument is Solgold is different to a 40% NPV takeover, based on the PFS.
As these companies need to raise cash, for the build.
Because we don't, I believe this commands a higher premium that the majors won't pay.
Also the key stakeholders, know what they got, so won't sell cheap.
Align that with a diverse register, means that any bidder, would have to get the agreement of all the main stake holders, and this gets harder still.
I admit, we could get a bid, and if we did, I think it will be along the lines, suggested by addicknt, which means we won't sell cheap. at PFS, I believe between 2 pounds to 2 pounds and fifty pence.
I don't know what price addicknt, would put on it, but listening to his argument over the last year, I think my estimate, wouldn't be too far off what addicknt has in mind.
I don’t think on the cheap no
Hopefully this week will give us something new to chew on, so that we can change the record.
Now, Quady if I understand this correctly, from the many times you've stated it! You think that this is going to production because you don't think a bid is going to come in that will value the company sufficiently for NM to recommend it. And only Addicknt has so far proposed a logical argument for a takeover.
Earthling on the other hand believes it's much more likely that SOLG are going to be taken over, perhaps at less than "full value".