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I agree with you bunsenburner123 that serious selling has taken place today and IMO SO4 is worthy of a much higher price. All trades today are small in the sense of being close to 2p but with trades close to or even equal to the mid price of 2.025, such as the 500,000 trade listed as unknown could be a buy.
As quite rightly, fundamentalanalysis points out do the sellers, "... know something which is not nice coming?."
Nah. All sells are very small. People are worried it’s going under but check out their cash position. It’s all rumours. Nothings changed since they said they needed funding. Ridiculous drop IMO - 2p for goodness sake!
Me being too optimistic maybe because of the spread being small, some of the big sells are actually buys.
At least the market makers have kept the trading above 2p for the time being.
A positive RNS update on fundraising would be a great news.
goingon do they know something which is not nice coming.
Big surge in volume towards close. Way way oversold IMO
The recent results rns says they have loads of cash, is that right?
Yes it is nuts that the share price is falling so much. But many investors are suffering and the SO4 management are slow in acting to resolve the funding and their other problems. I hope the market makers will hold back the share price from going lower lower than 2p. I hope the bottom was reached today and the trend changes.
Good luck to all.
It’s nuts how this is dropping so much. The more it drops too the more people think it’s doomed. Reckon we will see 1.80p next few days/week possibly
bunsenburner123 your question "Why is the SP dropping continually though?"
I think the underlying reason is that investors feel they have been very unfairly treated into believing that SO4 had all the funds necessary to start production and most of all sales of the potash. Instead they have had problems with production and now they need more money to solve problems they have encountered. So that is where we are SO4 needing more and the SO4 share price has dived leaving many investors stranded with an investment a distant shadow of their former shareholding. Investors await and wait... the new CEO RNS for the next fundraising!
Thanks for your post. So maybe 15th of November is a good target deadline date to look out for. Fundraising needs to be sorted out quick while the share price is still visible and has potential to rise given positive news. Investor optimism in SO4 is running out with the daily sales dominating and the daily drop in share price. The management need to act fast and get things sorted, rights issue or whatever, get it sorted, quick. Thanks for all your thoughts Cowpower on SO4.
Why is the SP dropping continually though? I remember thinking 5p was a steal. Then I bought at 4.30p, couldn’t believe it. Sold for small profit. Bought & sold since for a small loss. Now It’s 2p. No news has come out to see it drop from 4p, as far as I can see. A lot of dooms day feeling out there, maybe that’s what’s caused the continual slide - people saying shareholders will get nothing...
Dead line for new CEO is 15 of November. So b4 then. Remember how many shares the chairman ian middlemen has brought at 40-50 cents au. He is highly motivated to find the best outcome. And a few months delay on a project that has a 20yrs plus lifespan ant no biggie. there's always a risk tho good luck to all. I can't believe they got it this wrong already. Kalium Lakes separator and flotation can handle all variety's of salt's. That's where so4 went wrong the question is what will it cost to fix. Good luck to all
Today the share price is barely holding onto trading at 2p. I hope the market makers aim to keep the spread low and the share at no less than 2p until we receive a positive RNS. For me, I think the management must deliver in the next week and that they will deliver. Not sure what you mean by " du think it’ll be higher than 2p?". What form the funding will come in, is unknown and open to speculation.
Thanks. Do you think they’ll be another delay? Do you think they’ll get funding? And du think it’ll be higher than 2p?
In reply to: When will people see value here?
Maybe next week when CEO makes his positive RNS announcement in relation its Lake Way Project funding alongside his into battle statement. Combined with opening of trading SO4 on ASX.
When will people see value here?
ohh, just saw your another thread with K2M mod.
Good news for you if adjustment from K to M is made (as financial position is stated in '000 and total equity is 251,896 of those '000 making it 252m aud {reporting currency}) - but I guess it's just a typo.
Also question is rather not how much they've spent but how much investors can get out of it if it succeeds considering necessity for additional debt (denting future cashflow} and series of misfortunes {poor decisions as per style of management, errors on domain knowledge, write-offs of capital, etc.}
Remember Sirius Minerals (wannabe Potash miner/producer) ?
Huge ambitions with Australian origins CEO, valuation ended up multiples below NPV projections, failed financing (even before covid has hit), almost game over (saved by take-over, now project is practically on freeze looking at what's going on there staff-wise and slim progress reports).
It's all about after-tax discounted cash-flow shareholders can practically lay their hands on (and not wasted by management on something else incl. their bonuses) and with heavier burden of additional expensive financing required (and consequently wiping out nearest cash-flow items to pay off this debt principal + interest) - required return/risk adjusted project NPV(15%?) might not be as attractive as it seems looking at initial advertising materials.
By k I mean equity 250 million
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02429820-6A1053673?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 Try this link address for there full year 2021 report. says equity of 250k some 500k plus has been spent with about 200k in outstanding loans. Have you look at kll kalium lakes have just start making sop. they got it right. but for what you can buy so4 for its a steal. They are taking there time to make sure they make right decision to either sell or dilute but money will fix all problems. Its worth more then the 30-40mill market cap
Hi Cowpower, just to second Edwards’s post - it is great to hear from you and very interesting to get your perspective from the Aussie side.
Good luck to us all.
Can anyone tell me how much cash has been spent getting this mine to where it is and how much more is required?
Looks completely oversold.
Great to hear from an Australian investor and I totally agree with your positive and uplifting post.
I'm in australia and would love to buy so4 at these prices, Does anyone no a good trading platform i could buy so4 from aussy. Yes im holding 40k worth and burnt hard. but at these prices its a buy. 8 lakes plus 250k cash put in. good chance to buy at a 25k market cap. im in if i can find a platform to buy on
Can't you just deal with right broker and either move your shares between AU/UK registers to dump it on trading exchange or open equalizing hedge?
by the way initially project was optimistically valued at 380m AUD
(on NPV8 basis, which is gibberish from investing standpoint considering risks involved but is fine per accounting basis)
or 200m GBX, (projected ebitda was sitting below 50m GBX pa)
as having 20 years of useful life and planned debt level of 150m GBX (+50m for day-to-day opex during initial stages)
obviously risk-adjusted NPV should at least take 15% as discount factor therefore significantly grounding valuation to begin with
then this new materially higher debt at much heavier costs (interest rate, various reasons, covid, so4 failures, etc.)
and that's not even taking into account for some strange reasons higher capital raise I see on their balance sheet (well above any initial NPV valuation) and series of other unfortunate events leading to significant delays and capital write-offs
Even if project succeeds - NPV should clearly end-up well below 100m GBX but for some bizarre reasons mcap I can see is sitting at much higher level from what this project is capable of providing discounted cash flow for?
Why is it overvalued by so much? What's the catch here?