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Sadly the last case ( Africa-I remember it well) did not lead to eradication of the disease which has killed more people in the 19th century than any other cause. Sadly vials were keptcand stored in case of future discovery. And the vials were stolen. After 9/11 the US feared a smallpox attack and made enough doses for the whole population. Sadly we in the UK only have enoough for a small % !! Typical. I remember seeing my MP in late 2001 about it. It is not yet wholly eradicated but there are nomoutbreaks and I hope the vaccines still work . Or I’m gonna go milk some cows and do it the old-fashioned way. No vaccine for a coronavirus has ever been found. Porton Down had been trying for decades. This may be a first but it will be through a leap in RNA/DNA technology I believe. Unless antibodies really do work and the scientists just argue with each other! Remdesivir/Dexamethasone/early interferon b inhaled ( once proven) .....other additions to the ****tail. IMO the way forward probably. USA had worst number of new cases on record yesterday -over 41,000. Brazil too. India bad. Mexico a 22% death rate!! Treatment urgent. Re. investment..I see da Boyz playing with this share more and fear another drop for their chums. But as I always say..I don’t have a bloody clue and am comfortable admitting it .
And even that was a long haul. Vaccines for that originated around 1800. WHO eradication programme started in 1959. They intensified their efforts in 1967 and finally succeeded in 1977 (with a final case in 1978). This involved contact tracing too in addition to just vaccination.
No it doesn't mean that gkb47 - this has been addressed by a number of those heading up the vaccine programmes. The vaccine that is being trialled by Oxford at least is expected to initiate a much stronger immune response than contracting the virus naturally.
A workable vaccine a tricky thing to get one's head around and it's difficult to envisage what the future holds. Expediting the process is in many ways playing into the hands of the anti vaxxers. There will likely be vaccines that are initially piloted that turn out to be duds and this will ramp up the fear factor around the safety even more.
In the end if a general vaccine can be produced, it probably will be, due to the amount of money being pumped into it and the sheer number of parties involved. If not something akin to the seasonal flu jab might be the closest match. I can't personally imagine however a time when this virus will be fully eradicated.
The thing that strikes me is that there is some evidence arising that indicates the anti-bodies against Covid-19 may only last for months, in some case seem not to be detected at all even in those known to have had it. So does must imply that the anti-bodies produced by an vaccine will only last a few months?
Rich- I think we’ve been fed a bit of a line on the vaccine front tbh. No one in the history of the planet has ever come up with a vaccine for a coronavirus. We have flu jabs but they aren’t a vaccine. With luck they work for a season. No cure for the common cold. No vaccine for HIV which has been around since the 70’s, and was promised within 10 years after surfacing in the West in the 80’s. We would need to get incredibly fortunate to get a vaccine within 18 months imo. At least an effective one that is worth mass producing. Taking a cynical view these vaccine companies are hoovering up a lot of government cash from around the globe in the search for the Holy Grail.
They're a bit behind the times. Oxford is already doing phase III's not I/II's. Just a bit of propaganda for the Chinese to claim they're doing something. ;) There's also suggestions vaccines may not work for older people (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/covid-19-vaccine-may-not-work-for-at-risk-older-people-say-scientists) and they'll have to stop it via immunising adults+children. Also: "The bad news on the vaccine front is that an increasing number of scientists are warning that finding an effective jab may take much longer than the year to 18 months people have been talking about. You can call them kill-joys – and many have – but the truth is they have a point. Similarly optimistic positions were taken in the early days of the HIV pandemic and now – more than 30 years later – there is still no vaccine. Even the jabs we have for influenza are seasonal and only partially effective. In fact, the mumps vaccine - considered to be the fastest ever approved in 1967 - took four years to go from collecting viral samples to licensing a working drug." "David States, chief medical officer of the US health technology company Angstrom Bio, spelt out the challenges in a powerful thread on Twitter last week: “If you’re hoping a vaccine is going to be a knight in shining armour saving the day, you may be in for a disappointment. Sars-Cov-2 is a highly contagious virus. A vaccine will need to induce durable high level immunity, but coronaviruses often don’t induce that kind of immunity,” he said. Pointing to a UK study recently released by scientists in Oxford, he noted that the crucial IgG antibodies detected in the blood of British Covid-19 patients appear to fade noticeably after just two months. "
And so on and so forth.
Still nowhere near any meaningful widespread vaccination yet.
I imagine they're going to keep things as they are whilst they start opening up the country. To quote a sage advisor from today: "We're on a knife edge, it's very precarious the situation, particularly in England at the moment, and I would anticipate we would see an increase in new cases over the coming weeks."
There does need to be a re-thing on how hospitals are structured. Talking to my brother who is a clinical lead at a hospital, there are now almost no Covid patients in (3 patients - down from over 75) but the hospital is still for all intents shut except for emergencies. More people will die from not being treated for other thing!
Am I the only onewondering if it might be better to ease off the lockdown rules now, and actually _encourage_ a 2nd peak during the summer months, when people are better able to cope with it? Then there would be a degree of herd immunity in place for a possible 3rd winter peak that would be potentially more lethal.
I suppose it might be politically difficult though, telling the summer casualties that they've been sacrificed for the longer term good. And this argument only works in the northern hemisphere of course.
The counter-argument might be that we're all hoping a wonderful new treatment will be available by the winter :-)