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Deal3r, One thing to keep in mind with SNG is the company is traded on SETS, which is unusual for low volume shares, so whilst mm's still heavily involved (particularly with large orders) they are bypassed on this share via the SETS system to some degree. IMO lightly traded shares like SNG the share price is more easily moved by using small algo trades on the SETS system.
Rscorpio
Agreed. In addition this is no ordinary P3. It is against an active control group (ronapreve) with impressive data in out of hospital group (this study’s focus). To progress SNG must have had good efficacy as there would need to be a reasonable expectation of equivalent or superior results. The ACTIV2 trial team were clearly keen to keep SNG on board and tweaked the protocol to the suggestion of the SYnairgen team. It all looks good and may take time for this to be fully reflected in SP.
If successful in both ACTIV and Sprinter SNG should be in pole position as therapeutic. SP could go very high indeed. The target ramp up to production of 100k doses per month very realistic. Possible SP can be calculated on this basis and is looking good.
So a couple of things to add. It's an obvious thing to state but perhaps misunderstood, MM make the market, IE they are obliged to provide liquidity IE if any one wants to trade they are obliged to trade in a certain size if they publish that price. Therefore they set the share price, so they manipulate the SP all day every day.
They have a book of stock and they can either run it short or long but their objectives is to purely make money. Tricks they might play is to shake the tree. Here they drop the price early, may though a round 10p price to encourage sellers. They take on the stock to then run the SP higher.
Finally! £2 end of week
owl totally agree with your last point
I think we will hear a lot more of Synairgen once NIH and ACTG network announce this in the next few days. For a minnow to successfully pass a phase 2 trial and be sponsored by the US Govt for a larger phase 3 trial costing tens of millions is a great achievement in my view. Right now the SP doesn't quite reflect the enormity of this, but in time will catch this on.
Thanks for the reply Dudio, I do appreciate all that. For what it's worth I think it's inevitable that the price will increase above £2 pending results, subject to no unforseen circumstances, the sp relative to risk/reward will the drive the price up.
Owl, who knows?!
The SP has annoyingly drifted down in the past when there has been a lack of news, delays or maybe short term holders waiting to get in at a later date?
There will be more RNS news coming, such as last patient dosed for Synairgen's own P3 trial, but in the past small bits of news or even bigger news like the Lancet peer review last year, haven't budged the SP upwards that much.
Maybe the SP is artificially low, due to the likes of Polygon building up their stake? And a TR-1 from them might move things up? As might any sentiment drawn towards Covid shares, if and when a Covid winter kicks in?
For me, I think it's disappointing that progression to stage 3 of Active-2 hasn't generated a ton of PR, especially Stateside, as I think we're still a big unknown to many investors. Perhaps there will be more PR stories to follow? But I expect these will be a bit of a drip-feed E.g: interviews, in the absence of any big news such as stage 3 read-outs or any financial deals or orders.
Re Alkin's post - I'm currently offered (in a dummy transaction) Buy £169.1, Sell £1.61
That is very close
Just thinking out loud really but in the build up to p3 results if the anticipated sp of say £4,£5,£6 (insert number) on opening is expected with favourable results, then is it not likely we could see a steady increase in price upto around £2.50 - £3 before the readout, or do people think it will hover much as it is now with a massive rocket when we get the results. Appreciate this is crystal ball territory and ultimately irrelevant for long term holders but it's the kind of thing I like to contemplate.
If you check a sell price, it is currently higher than the quoted buy price
So presumably Deal3r the MM is dependent either on his existing stock of that share, or on scooping up from the open market...
What would happen if they simply could not get enough shares to fulfill the order? Or is that unlikely?
If the price is being "held" at , say, £1.60, what price is the deal likely to have been struck at? Something much higher, maybe £1.80? Otherwise the MM could be exposed to a high risk of a large loss surely, if even by raising the SP he couldn't readily persuade enough people to sell.
Is market manipulation of this type legal? It could be viewed as artificially keeping the price low in advance of a takeover?
Just touching back on this.
I used to work as a broker some 20 yrs ago. If we were trying to work a large order, a MM may take it on by giving a price for a block of shares and to then work the rest through the market, either to a group of institutions or lots of smaller trades to private investors.
The MM would hold the price to protect the large order price conditions, but he would be obliged to trade with whomever contacted him.
Clearly one MM is holding the price to fill a large buy at a fixed price.
lol hold4. Not a lot has changed through the centuries.
Yes its a shame the members of this board aren't running the country.
Which is something I have been thinking for a long time.
Maybe today’s announcement by UK gov is actually good news for sng. It is a headline grabber to detract from rising numbers and give the impression the government are in control and Boris did promise two treatments in time for winter. That’s now out the way but the action confirms the principle that governments want to secure a supply of covid treatments, will stockpile and will throw big bucks at it. Billion dollar contracts for Covid treatments. They will be coming our way soon I think.
Anyway we're a very stupid insignificant species that needs to get our **** together and get past the us and them *******s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo2ZsAOlvEM
Governments come and go. This drug came from fine British academic dedication and ingenuity and if successful it will have its rightful place in the NHS, which will outlive us all.
Before anyone gets depressed about the U.K. government’s choices let’s remember
In trials of hospitalised patients Molnupiravir didn’t show any improved outcomes.
There are safety concerns in the scientific community
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/merck-covid-pill-fda-molnupiravir-dna-mutations-20211014.html?outputType=amp
Trials of the Pfizer drug aren’t expected to complete until next year.
The U.K. has an option on unapproved therapeutics, that’s all it has, and we’ve moved into the super league with a drug capable of disrupting Big Pharma in a market that’s big enough to make Synairgen extremely profitable.
At this point I'd hope it wasn't sold in the UK.
A possible for why is that all production is bought up in pre orders by another government that is currently supporting us and has many multiples our population. Let alone more than one external government acting before ours.
Why would it not be sold in UK? Boffin is British from Southampton and permisssion is being obtained from FDA as well as UK and obviously others
Ndn71
Nope, I didn’t miss Activ2 ??which is why I have held fast since last summer regardless of the ups and downs and will continue to do so
My gripe is with the UK and our Oxford elite mafia which I believe has and will cost more lives by not backing this and other British firms
Sorry Matterhorn. Misunderstood your Q.