Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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I will be more than happy for a like for like exchange share with Astra zeneka .
Denny, start it from zero if you like, £50,000,000,000 cap will do me.
Nice idea but it does, of course, depend where you take the start point of the rise. If you take it as a year ago then in %age terms it's already up considerably more than Eli Lilley (something like 300% v 30% I think).
Anyway, even 10% of that rise would do me nicely!
You are right. I am getting on a bit. 61 and still haven't had my vaccine appointment. Well it is Scotland - the land of bull.
correct!
Geo, it's £250
I meant to direct that at Oilornothing. My maths is good
I meant to direct that at Org. My maths is good
No it isnt.
Yeah fairplay, just a bit more
Yes but for Synairgen to do that it doesn't equal a share price of £51.7!
I'm pretty sure his numbers are correct, 57% rise since October, to a market cap of $196,000,000,000 from $125,000,000,000
"The Eli Lilly market cap. has risen by £50bn since it was awarded EUA by USA for the monoclonal antibody Bamlanivimab in early November. For Synairgen to do that equals a share price of £51.7."
I think your maths are it abit off here!
The Eli Lilly market cap. has risen by £50bn since it was awarded EUA by USA for the monoclonal antibody Bamlanivimab in early November. For Synairgen to do that equals a share price of £51.7.
I have monumental conviction. :-)
I'll be holding till the sweet final offer. I won't even start carving up my prize until the SP hits £10. By carving up I don't mean selling, just planning how to divvy it up when the final price (which, for me, is £45) is reached.
Onwards and upwards!
EP
I don't think anyone can say it's any more or less accurate to estimate sales at 100m or 1m a month - nor can we be sure about the sale price nor the market penetration nor the competition nor our costs nor how long that might be sustained - we simply have no idea.
Yet I still love these dreamy posts cos I get the chance to plumb the figures into my portfolio spreadsheet and start divvying up the windfall - my Tesla coming first of course, before the new kitchen and paying off the kids uni debts!! :-)
Putting a value on this now is near impossible, there are too many unkowns. However RM was of the opinion that SNG001 was a >$1bn per annum drug for COPD, taking this and adding in COVID and stockpiling we should be able to see annual sales well north of this medium /long term. Lot needs to happen first, but this in broad terms is the potential. A valuation of 10x sales would not be unreasonable in this scenario, in maybe 18-24 months time. Most likely to realise a lower sum but sooner in my view. Whatever, all big numbers from where we are sitting now. Thoughts of a valuation of only £10 per share are rather unduly pessimistic I think, but many will sell at that point of course and be delighted. Holding a large stage right the way through will take monumental conviction.
While I agree with your caution, Chris, and my figures are also grounded, I think it's worth stating we don't know how high our sales will go. While 100k a month is likely, multiples of that is eminently possible. All an open question till we know more.
I appreciate my valuation was heavily swaying to the rampy side, but those figers arnt too far beyond the realms of possibility, the truth is I'd be happy with 10% of that.
If RM sells 700k treatments a year at £700 per treatment
How much is a company worth with revenue of £490m
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Let's say super conservatively that it would value sng at £10 a share, £2b mcap. Upside 600% rise, downside 70% fall, with a greater chance of the upside? Compelling risk/reward for sure from this level.
Org, I'm with you up to a point. A few weeks ago some on here were predicting closer to a million treatments a month and imo that's pie in the sky. 100k treatments a month is very possible however we don't even need it to be that high to see your share price target smashed.
50k treatments a month at ~£1k treatment = £50m a month/ £600m a year. Factor in the potential for stockpiling, increased orders in countries where dangerous variants spring up and the potential as a broad spectrum anti viral and the company will be worth £2b+ (£10+).
If you want to be ultra conservative keep a figure of 50k treatments a month across the US and Europe and you might realise you have nothing to worry about.
Org for sure I think your making a good point. But regardless of cases, SNG seems to be expecting to sell a lot of treatments based on government stockpiling. Nobody knows how much stock we have to sell but I recon whatever we have USA will buy the lot on any approval.
Org, as you know, we could discuss stockpiling and speculate on future case numbers and vaccine efficacy until the cows come home, but it's a bit pointless, all I can say is that I'm fully confident in the government's (ours and abroad) ability to mess this up from here, I don't believe We have this beat just because case numbers are falling on our tiny island.
But Richard Marsden has already said long term he will licence out drug to partner, so we would likely get a lump sum and then a % royalty on future revenue