The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Share has Legs yes, but with a club foot! just to create some balance (although bit unstable on the Club foot side) :)
Doc83 and Wigster77, just a quick thank you for posting your summary of the AGM Q&A. Very useful and provides further confirmation this investment has legs, albeit patience is required.
Much appreciated.
GLA
TommyD_19
Totally agree with your last post, it was said at the AGM that Synairgen didn’t have total control over the end points for Sprinter. It was also stated the Authorities were more interested in end points that could empty hospital beds than an end point that included death. Bearing in mind hospitals and governments were under extreme pressure at the time.
It was also stated at the AGM following the deep dive they now know their sub-set target group.
I’m sure those running the Platform Trials will take into consideration Synairgen’s gained expertise from the Sprinter trial and will try to accommodate accordingly. So I don’t envisage our inclusion into a PT will result in us waiting an age for results, they (PT) must be so much better for the experience gained from previous PT’s which were carried out when all hell was letting loose.
The company had a placing at 1.75 for a drug that wasn’t yet on a P3 and wasn’t on activ2 and had interesting but limited trial data.
To think we would remain at 30p if we’re on a PT p3 and possibly on another trial given the level of data we have now produced showing this drug can provide a 70% reduction in severity.
I would expect a substantial rise in the share price from its current value if those things happen, we are not in the situation we were in in 2021, we have far more convincing data.
Just FYI
If you look at remap cap or Recovery most trials have reported in around 9 months
Doc83 - On a platform trial we will be at the mercy of the organisation running it. So whilst it will be cheep for us we could end up in a load of politics or waiting for an age like activ-2 for data. Don’t get me wrong I really think we will commercialise the product I’m just very wary of allowing myself to think it will be a quick process. We’ve been caught out too many times.
Ghia - I tend to agree with most of what you’ve said today but do think we could easily see 50p+ on the back of news of a new trial. If we can get on two trials and the ACTIV P2 data is good, hopefully a fair bit more than 50p. Always hard to judge these things, however, companies who have drugs that are in a phase 3 trial(s) are surely valued a fair bit higher than our current market cap?
Also, I just can’t believe we’d get what will hopefully be good ACTIV P2 data and a trial, and still be languishing down at 30-40p.
I recall something else from the AGM now that SSH said. Something along the lines that drugs and research for respiratory diseases were seen as boring and there was little focus on them. Now, it is completely the opposite. Hopefully that should mean we continue to get some support to get this over the line, even if it does take years.
Ghia - "Andrewpcapp - 100% rise for joining a PT. Why? Explain you reasoning behind those numbers please."
I did?
"That's a shame, my déjà vu led me to expect joining a pt would push this towards 70p, much like trial news and covid panic did in 2020."
Sorry Ghia, I assumed you'd remember that?
Andrewpcapp - 100% rise for joining a PT. Why? Explain you reasoning behind those numbers please.
Perhaps 70p in the final quarter of the trial period as excitement builds towards a result but 70p on joining. I really don’t see it.
Assuming PT is to run this winter I recon first dosing in January, peak covid maybe February time. Trial readout June optimistically.
In fact I’d be over the moon at a trial readout next June.
Ghia - "Anyway expecting meaningful returns in less than 6months is barking up the wrong tree."
That's a shame, my déjà vu led me to expect joining a pt would push this towards 70p, much like trial news and covid panic did in 2020.
I was expecting that would happen in less than six months so I'm disappointed to read that 'I'm barking up the wrong tree'.
Little steps
Let’s get the review published and the Activ data
Let’s join the PT in the winter and start dosing patients
The share price will take care of itself in due course and commercialisation will follow
Just sit back and enjoy
One final point..
I think resolutions 12/13 were pulled from the AGM as Poly objected..
Why would they do that?? IMHO to leave the door open for TO bids.....
Their average is around £1.10 so make up your own mind up of the
minimum they would consider.... ATB!
Manifesto - I’m still invested here. The point I’m trying to make is the swing in mood on this board is wild. People set themselves up for failure time and time again but expecting too much too quickly.
If this was a dog of a share i would have cut and run. I’m holding with a 12month+ horizon hence they are in the bottom drawer and I will check back in periodically.
Anyway expecting meaningful returns in less than 6months is barking up the wrong tree.
By all means enjoy the optimism and the news that is likely to drop over the next few months but be honest with yourselves this has month and months to play out.
The board practically spelt it out to you in the AGM.
Will this commercialise in 12months time No!!
Previously commercialisation was months away hence the valuation at the time.
AJ316
I agree with your time frame.
Some facts here... We are waiting for 5 significant pieces of news
1. ACTIV2 results...This Summer as per RNS
2. News of ACTIV2 P3 (Funded)
3. Long Covid results from SPRINTER
4. Peer Review From SPRINTER
5. News of inclusion in a Platform Trial (Funded)
How anyone can say with any honesty that this is a bottom drawer stock without knowing the outcome
of the above points is ridiculous... IMHO!
Maybe i am being overly optimistic but I am expecting platform trial inclusions within 3 months not 6.. along with long covid data.. I see activ, long covid and platform trials all before September
I also tend to agree with Ghia’s assessment, at least with regards to timescales.
However, I do think the SP will handsomely re-rate on receiving ACTIV P2 data and hopefully a new trial. My best guess, good P2 data takes the SP up to between 50-60p, and news of a new trial(s) as much as £1+.
Ill take a happy medium between your best case and optimistic case doc. Either way we have an exciting few years ahead. Being my biggest investment by far I’ll be following along and in for the long haul.
I’ll play this game for a bit of fun on a wet Saturday evening!
Worse case:
3 months - still no ACTIV P2 data.
6 months - ACTIV P2 data received but merely average with no new trials.
1yr - still frantically trying to find a free trial.
2yr - cash raise needed otherwise it’s the end of Synairgen.
Best case:
3 months - ACTIV P2 data finally received, and it’s AMAZING!
6 months - on two new paid for trials, inpatient and outpatient.
1yr - Covid has flared back up again BIG TIME, the trials are going incredibly well and Synairgen are encouraged to apply for EUA because the world urgently needs SNG001.
2yr - SNG001 confirmed as a life saver, full authorisation granted and a bidding war ensues. Pfizer and AstraZeneca fight it out with bids around £20 billion or £100 per share.
Realistic case:
3 months - ACTIV P2 data received and it’s decent.
6 months - invited to join new trial that has replaced ACTIV.
1yr - no real news, we are in the thick of the trial. Long shot of a bid from large pharma who want to take an educated punt.
2yr - drug is proven to work and bids come in from multiple large pharma cos.
Mild optimism*
While nothing is going to happen a great deal in the next year regarding commercialisation I do understand mani’s angle.
With every platform trial inclusion, lancet review or long covid data the SP should rise in response to that giving hope to those 80/90% down.
Given the losses of most investors these SP rises to come in the next 3/6/9 months all mean something to those sitting on such big losses.. Myself I’ve managed to get from a £1.95 average to a £1.50, that’s the best I can do. I will be delighted to see any rises in the SP so here’s to good news and mind optimism over the coming months. Bottom drawer maybe but those sitting on huge losses will be keeping a close eye.
GLTA
Doc..
My post clearly says that a crisis in Covid cases could lead to EUA...Not our Long Covid
results...
My point on Long Covid is that nothing else has been reported that has an effect
on Long Covid ..so it could be a significant finding for SNG...
All If's and buts! The AGM made it quite clear the direction of travel and length of time to take to get there. Doc 100% correct bottom draw share. Still positive news to come I agree, but seriously good news is way off in the distance at the present time.
No Doc..
I don't believe it is a bottom drawer share...Covid is Spiking..Our Long Covid results
are not yet in...As was reported If a crisis should evolve that could change
our prospects of applying for EUA....Well read today's papers... It is on its way..
Despite the vaccine roll out......
Docdaneeka posted yesterday..
I'm going to join those on the sidelines until we have substantial news.
Ghia posted on 16th May
Such a shame the way this has worked out.
Science clearly worked but I get the feeling it’s too disruptive to the major pharma co drug pipelines.
Todays news is great but time lines here are not what they where. Bottom drawer investment worth holding onto but I don’t expect anything meaningful until 2023.
What 2 things do Ghia and Docdaneeka have in common?
They are both no longer invested here....