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Yeah. Because hedge fund managers have got loads of time on their hands to muck about on bulletin boards...
When I was a kid I always thought a polygon was a dead parrot .
That's correct, 2 does come after 1.
There's nothing wrong with having a sensible exit price, and any talk of £20 without any idea how the company are going to reach that is just noise, my problem is when people try and kill any kind of discussion about where we could be.
IMHO take over talks already being discussed in the corridors of a large pharmaceutical!
Polygon must have known or been made aware and now could have a direct influence on any taker over price, certainly not going to be cheap when that day arrives!!
At the end of the day Polygon are in it for the money. They don't want to buy a pharma company. They have done their research well, like us, and can see the huge potential which has now been derisked further. They've got lots of shares still on the cheap, before the institutional sheep come on board and before a big pharma comes knocking. BTW, 4 billion is peanuts to these guys, and a highly likely takeover minimum
Barry
Doesn’t 2 come after 1, I’m confused?
Or should we all be saying it is going to £20?
Just a reminder that we are at £1.75 and as keen as I am to retire, I’m also trying to keep my feet on the ground and be realistic atm.
Could do with some other II come on board to start levelling out Polygons power and power to be
It would surprise me if polygon weren't on this forum planting the seeds for low expectations right now, every time anyone starts talking about future earning potential, I see contributors piping up with the old "let's get to £2 first"
They've got £40 million in here.
Exactly oak...
I do hope yur employers pay you double time for your night time tag team performance. Polygon have been loading for Months now. Follow the money
IMO I wouldn’t be so concerned about Polygon at the moment.
Wait until results of SPRINTER. Then we will see Polygons true colours. They might decide to dump all their shares at a certain SP. In which case the SP will plummet, only for them to buy the lot back at a much lower price. They have such a holding in shares now that they will be able to manipulate the price to their own advantage, should Phase 3 readout be succesful.
I can't see why Polygon, a financial company, would want to own a pharma. Not for themselves anyway.
I believe they just see a huge profit to be made in a short time, if all goes well. If they get and adequate size of holding that it becomes really significant I expect they will offer it, somehow, to someone more appropriate (Big Pharma). But I think they are hoping for a mahoosive payday just like the rest of us.
Matml
"I can’t see them getting to 30% without blowing the share price up". No? What goes up can be brought back down. We've been there a fair few times, no? This is AIM. The more you own, you more power you yield. I remain watchful until their strategy is quite clear.
Thanks for the replies, very helpful. My understanding was that they were in it for themselves first and foremost which would ultimately be good news for the rest of us too. Hopefully that doesn't change and they don't have any ulterior motives.
I can’t see them getting to 30% without blowing the share price up. They have done a great job getting 13% without doing that but the free float here was huge with massive PI holdings. The fact that news is now very close means those that have held this long will see it through to P3 results so only way to extract shares is up the price.
Buying on behalf of a big pharma?
My gut feeling is that they are simply just building a position because they are confident in the company and think they can make a good turn. As fruitsnveg says, would be nice for a few of them to slug it out and really get this share price motoring.
From 30% they would need another 21%, that is about 30% of the remaining shareholders. These are all, by definition people that have not sold to them on the way up, so will value the company still higher. Polygon do not want to own a small pharma company, they want to offload it to a big one, so what added value would they bring by buying the whole thing? Answer none. Doubt they would try it, doubt it could work.
The question is; why would Polygon be the only interested party here? We know what we're sitting on. I'd like to see a few of them sling it out tbf, it would be good for shareholders.
Woodie load up.
Thanks Hank, I'm aware of the Watchstone one, just wondered if there was another example I hadn't followed.
I believe it's 50% of the remaining votes so in a 30% ownership scenario they'd need 35% support ?
I don't think it will be enough for polygon and fully expect them to continue buying, hence why I've increased my holding.
I was wrong on the 90% threshold, its 50%. Still no worries though I dont think it would ever happen..... Here is a link to when it failed for them : https://www.marketwatch.com/story/polygon-global-partners-gets-1-21-watchstone-offer-acceptances-271629702820
Doc, I think time is on our side. Let’s say worst case scenario Polygon are looking to facilitate a hostile, they only have 3 or 4 months to accumulate 30% on the open market before our own trial results are published. That’s a hell of a lot of upward pressure on the SP in order the acquire those shares quickly enough. And then any offer is going to have to be some way north of whatever the inevitably very high SP will be. I just don’t see it happening…
thanks Hank, that is reassuring. I don't pretend to know much about this but I was under the impression that in some situations it is 50% plus, but I don't really undrestand the technicalities.
As far as the size of any takeover bid, you have to remember that if polygon own 30% (60 million shares) then £5 will give them a massive return. Personally, I'd be gutted if we got bought out at that level. Those are just numbers I'm using as an illustration, it's not a prediction.