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Tango man was able to negotiate extreme discounted prices for Remdesivir($12k down to $2k) and Hydroclox ( $?)
because not only was he the bestest negotiator in the whole wide world , it just so happens that both of the drugs are about as much use as Anne Frank's drum kit on their own and Gilead & zahao industries were very grateful for the billions of dollars in orders .
Yes that's all quite reassuring on cost as that's my only negative - especially when I can imagine Boris wants an easy soundbite of about "£3 a pill' or something similar. I've been working on the basis of £2000 a treatment but that's only been from reading this board really. But that US article did give me pause for thought. Anyway, fingers crossed
I agree Doc, I think the conversation sometimes veers towards 'why can't we make this really cheap' but in reality there are so many factors to grapple with. The big pharmas, to be fair to them, have at least worked at keeping vaccines at cost price - not all but most- which some (me included) would say is the most ethical and humane thing to do. Were it to transpire that one of those same big pharmas partnered with Synairgen throuh licening agreements, then it might, just might, be fair to hope that they would also supply therapeuics like SNG001 at cost price too, at least for a period. Having done it once I don't seee why they couldn't do it some more. Pie in the sky maybe, but I like to think big and bold and hope ethics wins above profits. we would still get our licencing fee and global populations could be the beneficiaries.... who knows....
Yes Fruits, for example this year Synairgen will have ponied up the thick end of £100 million.
Doc, Spin,
What is being igored in pricing conversations I see here on the BB, is an industry used methodology which considers vastly morethan just ingredients and manufacturing costs. As this pricing methodology article summises "Even if a company only develops one drug, the median spending is still a hefty $351 million. Note that companies with extremely low R&D spending per drug mostly get there in part by convincing a partner, usually a large pharmaceutical company, to carry the cost."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2013/08/11/the-cost-of-inventing-a-new-drug-98-companies-ranked/?sh=109a93312f08
Based on the above, assigning a cost to SNG001 based on ingredient + nebuliser + manufacturing estimate, is way to simplistic IMO. The numbers are staggering. This is a very, very costly business and those cosst ust be rcouped somehow in the drug pricing structure. I am hoping, personally, that Synairgen do persue licencing deals with larger pharma partners as RM has mentioned previously, because then the cost burden shifts and the elephant in the room (price) shrinks dramatically.
Thanks Seaboy for your great work. There are a few others in the frame including the AZ and GSK and Camostat in the Activ-2 with us.
I agree with you Doc that the level of competition, say, if and when we are able to make an application for EUA may well affect the likely pricing. Does anyone know if a proposed pricing menu would need to be given as part of the EUA application? If not that would mean we could keep powder dry for a bit longer but the lack of cost information would certainly discourage Horby and UK govt. from making any early approaches for pre-orders. I guess Boris is hoping to get something sub £500 from the new anti-viral pill campaign and ideally sub £10 like Ivermectin. The time frame laid down by Boris and the expected cost limits on NHS procurement of two drugs for standard of care mean that these have to be repurposed drugs or if new drugs, already well down the road in trials as is SNG001.
I have no idea of the potential pricing of Camostat for instance but pills are usually at the cheaper end of the spectrum and take little time or set up costs to administer.. New drugs will always be more expensive than repurposed drugs though particularly if out of patent and generic. The initiative may come to nought of course. There are circumstances where £2000 would be a very good deal (if it prevented a patient needing hospitalisation and oxygen and long Covid) but this is fairly difficult to target currently. At present the NHS doesn't seem to be set up with simple procedures, ie A.I. programmed blood tests to determine markers for severe disease progression such as low interferon levels and/or genetic disposition as soon as a positive test has been made. I think we are not expecting SNG to become widespread standard treatment without such testing. I.E. we are thinking along the lines of 'Standard of Care' for obviously high risk patients only ( eg very old with co-morbidities) as the best case scenario, this year at least.
I would expect with large orders the company could make adequate margin and profits at a price to UK govt. somewhere between £400 and sub £1,000 per treatment at a guess. At these price levels even if only one out of four were saved from hospitalisation it would seem a good deal to me for UK plc.
All the best
Spinnaker
asj it can be administered in a home environment huge potential savings on in hospital
asj it can be administered in a home environment huge potential savings on in hospital care
Sterland, one thing we do not know for sure, or at all, is the price of the treatment. Lots of guesses and workings and reference to conversations many months ago, but nothing concrete and nothing that has been communicated by the company as a 'definitive' pricing structure.
However, here is what we absolutley do know - the other front-running candidates are not cheap either - there are some fairly eye-popping figures here (e.g. $8,000): https://medcitynews.com/2020/09/combo-study-of-gilead-antiviral-lilly-anti-inflammatory-drug-positive-in-covid-19-but-raises-pricing-jitters/
Then you have to factor in the combiining of drugs into a treatment '****tail', again adding to overall treatment and expertise expense. On top of that, ease of administering, transporting, storage and longeavity all play a part in overall pricing. And certainly in those respects, we have ticked quite a few cost saving boxes already compared to some treatments.
So I think comparatively, SNG001 may actually look fair value for money to governments in the end.
leroygamble - Boris could easily mention Synairgen. They are a British biotech that is testing what appears to be a successful treatment for a virus that has reportedly killed 130,000 people in the UK, they should be shouting from the rooftops. Their name was uttered by MH back in July in response to the P2 results and its no secret that a P3, home trial and US trials are underway and nearing completion. The oxford Astrazeneca vaccine was discussed in detail on a daily basis long before it was approved, so mentioning Synairgen by name in relation to these trials would clearly not be commercially sensitive. In my view, if its not a major pharma, the government aren't interested.
Thanks Seaboy. Masses of useful information there. The elephant in the room and the reason why BJ talks of pills etc must be the cost. I don't know what the other antivirals are likely to cost, but it does seem Synairgen seem to be making something which may only be within the reach of those with private healthcare worldwide (and I take the point that early treatment for a couple of grand is far cheaper than a spell in ICU). Someone recently posted a US link (10 days ago?) which initially referred to us in positive fashion, but if you went to the second page, the high cost of a course reared its head (sorry for lack of specifics). I believe in everything I hear about the drug - except the potentially intolerably high cost for governments. I continue to hold as I have faith that whilst it might therefore become a bespoke treatment under certain conditions (as opposed to one of the 'biggies') as long as it was approved and in production on even a relatively modest scale, that would still make it a solid investment at the current share price. But £10/20+ a share? Well we can all dream can't we?
Thanks for this excellent analysis. At this stage the critical issue for SNG is not whether it works, (that's a given) but whether Competitor offerings are more effective and can be produced at lower cost. SNG has a good chance of succeeding on both counts because interferon its the body's own natural mechanism for fighting infection.
That's a fair shout Leroy! Once we have out (hopefully) great news on the HT front and any positive news from across the pond, we should get our time in the sun! I still believe it wont play out until later in the year personally and am sitting on my hands for now, unless I can top up awaiting money from elsewhere! Ultimately, I still believe in the science and mainly SNG!
GLA
Not sure why people are blaming Boris and co for not mentioning us. Why would they at this stage? There's simply not enough data.
The onus is now on Synairgen to release further data on trials to show the world what we've got.
The onus is on us to
Rumbled... great catch BruceJ. It's a bit like dancing the Flamingo.
fluker it is not just tories look at Labour mayor Joe Anderson bailed at present. corruption everywhere
fruit and veg is a hare's breath anything like a hair's breadth?
I presume he means NHS particularly. This will rarely be used for private patients except in USA
I don't think its us. Horby said it will be "public investment" to bring these treatments forward in the FT article I assume he means the tax payer .Why would they bother with us now or Is he still stuck in the cheap and cheerful bubble
Bigjohnny, my money is on Dido, based on her previous world-beating inability to deliver she should qualify in a hare's breath. We're in good hands.
...I get that BJ and Co might want to keep the explanation simple and not confuse the dumb punter public with detail, and that there could be disclosure issues in being too specific but on balance I'm still concerned that the terminology "pill, capsule" is repeatedly used.
"Fifth of UK Covid contracts ‘raised red flags for possible corruption’
Report finds ‘apparent systemic bias’ in award of lucrative PPE deals favouring firms connected to Tories"
Highly probable
Oak,Matt,
Seems I've arrived at this particular debate late in the day and looking at the ferocity on both sides,.. I'm glad I have!
Thank you Seaboy for your very diligent following of the candidates, it s very helpful to read where each are and their respective characteristics etc.
Probably give the chair job to handikokface's sister, BungleBoris's friend or some other tory ly8ng thieving btstard