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Oak, yeah you must be right. My question asking people on their intentions if ACTIV2 progresses =
‘a post designed to confuse and mislead’.
Do you really think that the SP and institutional funds gives a fig about what someone says on a message board?
Again, you’re putting far too much emphasis on the power of this message board to be able to control people and the markets, grow up.
My own strategy is to sell a portion after A2 progression, assuming that is so, then buy back in prior to SPRINTER final dosing RNS and then hold, with top slicing at perhaps £10, £12.50, £15, then ride the rest to see where it goes e.g. takeover/licensing.
Would be my first multibagger though so need to keep myself disciplined.
For me, this share is unusual in that if it does shoot up on news (and I hope it does, soon) the chances of it dropping significantly are smaller than they often are, because putting aside catastrophic failure later the outlook for the product only gets better the longer it stays around. I suppose that means I'm brainwashed :-)
But say it goes up to £4 on, say, progressing to P3 then in my mind the only thing that would bring it down far is failure at P3 - so in that respect it is a Big "Gamble", as the fall if that happened would be deep and lasting. But assuming that goes OK then the only way is up, in large jumps, each time a new milestone is achieved, or a new purpose found.
So, as I don't absolutely need the money, I'm not planning on taking out profits on the way up, not till we reach some spurious target value which I've not yet set (probably around £25 though that could never happen). Although at about a tenner I could be tempted to sell out as that would give me all the cash I need at the stage of life I'm at.
Anyway, apart from random treats (which are likely expensive) I don't see me reducing in stages. Once I decide to sell, the whole lot will go and if it's the right price then I'll stop risky investing too.
I agree with you Denny
With favourable P3 results, I can easily see the Sp stepping up everytime a new govt order is announced. Retracements will blunted and will simply be due to profit taking.
For me, this share is unusual in that if it does shoot up on news (and I hope it does, soon) the chances of it dropping significantly are smaller than they often are, because putting aside catastrophic failure later the outlook for the product only gets better the longer it stays around. I suppose that means I'm brainwashed :-)
But say it goes up to £4 on, say, progressing to P3 then in my mind the only thing that would bring it down far is failure at P3 - so in that respect it is a Big "Gamble", as the fall if that happened would be deep and lasting. But assuming that goes OK then the only way is up, in large jumps.
I hear what you’re saying rum.
I do believe long term holders can win, most definitely.
As the stats will tell you, a very low percentage of day traders make healthy profits.
Hahaha.
Oak, don’t talk stupid and chill out my friend.
I was making up the analogy for a bit of fun and was replying to Andy tbh.
I’m not referring to my own stash and wouldn’t necessarily take that stance if the SP went up to those highs.
Thanks for your take on it anyway.
Just a bit of harmless Sunday morning fun.
I'd rather not answer that question, Kevin, haha. I am, though, more in the latter camp which can lead me to making regretful decisions as to buy back in and being spiked. . I can reason with myself and say 'great profit' ..whilst feeling clammy and sick in the stomach. But as someone on here once told me, this is not a game you can ever really win.
Dear Kevinl1977
if you have 50,000 and sell them all at £6 then you would be a fool. These shares could go to £30 quite easily. The correct strategy is to only sell a certain percentage of your holding at any one time, to take some profit off the table. You will know when to sell some when you can't sleep for worrying. It is impossible to time the exit perfectly. However those that hold for the takeover/licencing agreement are the ones that will do best. So hold on to some and wait for that moment.
This is just another post designed to confuse and mis-lead. Same old stuff just different usernames.
Greed is everything also.
Example: you have 50,000 shares. You sell out at £6 per share making £300k. Very happy.
SP then goes quickly to £8 per share.
Do you think happy days I’ve just made £300k or:
I’ve just lost £100k?
Which one are you?
Doc, totally. If we get a large rise, say 600 to 1000%, it’s time to sell. Then when the price drops, we BUY BACK and hold long term until takeover bids start coming in.
Obviously it has to work first, before any of us can do that.
Post SPRINTER (if successful) there will be a one to two week window, depending on how quickly the msm like bbc etc report on it. That’ll be the 500 to 1000% gain. Then it will dip. Timing is everything.
Boyg
I would hope that the SP goes above £2 if positive news from A2 arrives and we get confirmation that we are on A2 P3. Following dr castros slip last time, we jumped to £1.80 odd just from the expectation that we were progressing.
If confirmation arrives, hopefully a bigger jump will occur.
Fingers crossed
£812 per share?! Maybe £81.2… they must have a decimal in the wrong place :D
Just trying to do the math. That would give a market cap of £160bn?!
Like any stock
When they double… sell half and run the rest. Have your out price in your head. Don’t get greedy. Save some for the next man!
I think Activ 2 p3 gets us to £1.85 to £2
Then the customary retrace to £1.70
Only other cheaper better drugs drag us down until Sprinter p3 results.
If they are ‘good’ we are £3.50
Great we are £5
Unbelievable… we are bought at 2-3 billion with potential for 4 if we are manufacturing well already
That’s my read
No Activ 2 P3 we are 80p retracing to 65p whilst people accept there is nothing worth hanging around for until Sprinter p3 results.
Then it’s P3 or bust
Good luck all
The values that some are putting on this share seem to be very low...this could potentially be one of the most important drugs to come on to the market.
The likelyhood that Covid 19 will be followed by various varients and other infections like nipah virus etc and it's ability to help with asthma and COPD and the fact it can be stockpiled for years
means that we shouln't be giving this away.
Simply WallSt are giving it a fair value of £812,,,,Now you're talking :-)
re seres
thanks for the reminder. i meant to buy some seres. its on my list of pharma-disaster-recovery stocks, alongside polyphor.
nothing to do with syn. sorry. but would be happy to hear of any other pharma recovery recommendations. perhaps valneva worth a punt.
good weekend all.
Perhaps only the chartists will have any hope of timing the exit well, the rest of us are relying on pure luck; at least I will be. In my pre-chart days.
By the looks of it, Seres Therapeutics went from $3.74 to around $37. I’d be very pleased if SNG went to £15! However, I also notice Seres have crashed all the way back down to $6.
When you get these dramatic rises, they typically then fall back quite sharply from their peak. Timing the exit perfectly will no doubt be very difficult.
According to business insider article, it is not uncommon for biotech firms to rocket up to 700% upon news of a great phase 3 trial result.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/seres-therapeutics-stock-price-positive-phase-3-trial-data-biotech-2020-8
This was from August last year.
So I believe that providing the data is spot on, then we will see a replication of July 2020. Perhaps even larger amount.
Given the multi utility purposes of SNG001 Interferon beta in the long run, this stock get its £9.90 to £50 target SP.
Providing it works, I honestly feel £5 to £10 is minimum price of this. I think it could hit £7 to £9 within the first week of a positive phase 3 read out.
I'm assuming that the data will be really good, and whilst it may not result in the same percentage gain to the SP as the P2 results, I believe that getting approval and EUA is as inevitable as a takeover ultimately - then again, I'm very bullish on SNG purely because it's still the supposedly most efficacious treatment out there to date, and P3 will confirm that.
I still think £5-10 is easily achieveable by the endgame, at least, my target price is in that range.
Have a good weekend all.
As RM said, ‘we have to assume that data is going to be’ really good so have to put the chess pieces into place.
I’m not assuming that we are going to get full approval, but am very hopefully.
If you check the SP on July 2020, it went from 36p to £2.46 in the space of 2 weeks, following amazing P2 data. Of course, this was peer reviewed in the lancet later.
That is ridiculous!
Working out the % gain, if we get similar from the same positive P3 data, that would be marvellous. Again, I’m only stating the facts of what happened and I’m not predicting that this will happen again, although it will be nice.
Kev. I think you might just get your early retirement.
I’m over exposed on this too. Synairgen is slightly over half my portfolio now.
But like you, I am very bullish at the prospects of the drug. It’s very odd, the SP of Synairgen doesn’t appear to behave like the other small biotech covid stocks. As soon as they release any news, be it an indication of safety or ability to ramp up production, their SP goes up 60% in one day. We have nothing like that from Synairgen. It’s clear that the company is going to be filing for EUA straight after SPRINTER, RM said so and they’ve also hired a CRO with 30 years experience. You’d presume that the SP might nudge slightly higher with the promising new job position being filled, it shows the company moving in the right direction. But nope, SP stays the same.
Guessing the SP is okay as a bit of fun. It is also good to dream about what could be, although with any investment, it is rarely that simple.
We know it puts fires out, but other factors to take into consideration before approval is granted and SP really takes off.
I’m still very wary to think I could potentially be retired by the summer of 2022. I’m lucky as I don’t have a mortgage and still in very late 40’s, but the thought of having a choice whether I work on a particular day is very exciting. SP to £15 by summer of 2022, would be amazing. House project finished, £0 debts and enough to retire at 50.
Top up in another week when payday arrives for me. Going against eggs in one basket principle, but…..
Bigjonny, do you mean SPRINTER phase 3 trial (instead of recovery)?
That’s a good point. I hadn’t thought of.
If the NIH simply say that SNG001 met the efficacy and safety requirement to progress to Phase 3, however instead of doing that, we are going to use their SPRINTER trial instead because it’s finishing a lot sooner.