The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Thanks Matterhorn
Saint7. Until P3 trials are confirmed positively.
SP predictions remain useless
Haha don’t worry I know these are ultimately estimates based on a number of assumptions, can’t help being excited by the prospect’s of this company, looking forward to the next few weeks.
BarryBrownPees - yes it’s 30% on turnover.
Saint7 - yes it’s wow, but to be safe I’d say let’s not get too excited (yet) although it’s worth being aware of this unexplained anomaly i.e. ‘mismatch’ between doubling of royalty % while price target was not adjusted.
£16-£20 for the LOWER price target.........wow
30% is specific, especially as that estimate has been lifted, does any one know if that 30% would be 30% of the turnover, where the partner would absorb costs on their end?
Re point #2 where I mentioned £16 - £20. Actually it should be around £20 and maybe slightly higher than that. I used 100k sales and not 125k sales. Irrespective the estimates look incredibly promising.
They wouldn’t use a royalty rate of 30% without getting some insight from the company right?
CityTTrader - thank you for sharing the Numis note.
I've noticed the following from the updated financials:
1) Royalty rate has doubled from 15% to 30%.
2) Numis' lower price target remained at 990p despite the doubling of the royalty rate. Not sure if they're trying to remain super conservative or whether there is another reason for not revising it. However, if you do a back of the envelope calculation for Synairgen using the 30% royalty and taking into account expenses the lower price target should theoretically be between £16 - £20, give or take.
3) They seem to be working on an assumption of roughly 125k treatments per month for 2022. Assuming the 2022 figures are representative of 12 months' sales and £2k per treatment.
4) The financials assume no direct sales by Synairgen, therefore all sales via a third party. Should Synairgen do direct sales it will or should result in higher profits
And if any of those are deemed risky to use against Omni (i.e. if they prove to accelerate problems instead of fix them), then you can see how supply is going to get even more squeezed. The flip side of this is big pharma will, IMO, pull out the stops to keep manufacturing as much as possible, or find alternative ways to meet that demand if the need becomes so overwhelming. But we don't know yet how Omni will impact so just musing at this point...
The problem is already supply, not demand.
Merck are estimating to have 10M courses available by the end of 2021.
Pfizer will only have 180,000, although they say this will jump to 50M by the end of 2022
During the initial vaccine rollout, both Pfizer and Moderna delivered less vaccines than promised to some nations.
The current supply of oral antivirals isn’t high enough to prevent disaster from a new variant. It isn’t even enough courses for the variants we have today. Currently in the US there are +45k patients hospitalized with Covid-19. During the peak of the Delta infection in India, there were more than 800,000 cases reported per day.
What a great problem to have a supply one
That's fine @Skyhook
Supply < Demand = Higher price (until supply / demand equalise)
Demand < Supply = Lower price (until demand / supply equalise).
As it ever was.....
The problem may not be demand, it may be supply
£1 billion in revenue for 2022 and assuming a price of £2,000 per unit (may not be a great assumption) would mean ~42,000 treatments a month. That seems low to me.
First order from US will be more than that IMO based on their continued high hospitalisation rates and the emergence of variants with unknown characteristics. The easiest way to protect in this situation is with viral agnostic treatment. Not long now and we will know if that product will be SNG001.
That is one positive report.
Just over £1billion estimated revenue for 2022.
Anyone who unloads this when proven to be effective on data readout under £15.00 is in my opinion a bit silly after holding all this time! This is a one off type treatment at the present time and will be worth lots more than £10 and £13 per share. IMO.
Incredible numbers.
Operating cash flow at end of 2022 is projected at £821m! This looks like a dragons den pitch, haha. Fingers crossed they can pull this off.
Thanks for posting CityTT, most useful.
Under 3rd bullet "We are most specifically concerned over treatments that have the potential to place selective pressure on more conserved regions of coronaviruses. Accelerating the evolution of endemic coronaviruses may have significant unintended consequences"
This has go to be a real concern now.
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