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To Org 30
Lets not talk at cross purposes. The virus itself is quite stable. Its the same ugly virus that was in existence earlier this year. What has changed is that we have greater visibility on testing numbers and its proven by the 8% of the population in the UK that are thought to have been infected in H1 of this year. This shows that in the first six months true mortality is around 0.85%. What is happening in the second half of the year is that the younger population are getting more infected in the summer and it is now in September getting into the at risk patient groups. This is arising through younger people visiting older people households and hence the desire to stop that kind of transfer. Another factor limiting the rate increase is that older people with sense practice social distancing a lot more than they did before. I believe the numbers will be less than before than in the spring as I believe most people will use masks and will try to look after themselves if they are in the older age groups. This does not stop problems in nursing homes if they are not covid-19 defended.
fish2
The UK government is supporting trials for therapies that have the capacity and route to market. They are not just supporting vaccines. I have left a note on the AstraZeneca board to see what they think on any chance of working with Synairgen again. AZ will have no shortage of severely ill patients in clinical trials this time (the cause of the asthma trial breakdown years ago).
I have worked most of my life on innovation in healthcare research. I have last count on how many successes arose from near points of failure. It just might be possible that our biggest UK company may want a therapeutic which can be used for COPD as well as Covid-19 and anything else that is viral and attacking lungs in future. If AZ came back into play the companies know each other well. It will take a good pitch for Synairgen to win AZ over again and just maybe they might give the company a second chance. This is the big deal to put together. This is when a CEO and directors show they deserve the big pay cheques or not. Good science needs good impact follow ups.
But what about the people at risk who haven’t got access if they unfortunately catch the virus. Are they going to die so our politicians don’t lose face.
It just appears politicians keep banging on and splurging our taxes on them V2 rocket of vaccines rather than putting real help behind the SNG trials.
Nice post Elsol
There are a complex set of issues here. 1. MHRA and other Reg. Bodies need time to review the second set of COPD safety data recently released ; 2. Governments are really scared to re- publicise the great effectiveness of this intervention to the general public too early in case implementation / commercialisation goes tits up in the worst case scenario eg the product can't be made available to all that need it the most. Big potential egg on face again for the Government after diagnostics disasters and early counter covid criticism about herd immunity. Hence the News Blackout and officials not publicly naming SNG0001 overtly. 3. There will be a number of distribution / licensing or buyout deals already on the table Im sure and the SNG Board would want to make sure THEY have the right deal in place ahead of or in alignment with approvals. 4. I think most educated regulators and scientists know this is very safe and very efficacious.....so soon it will all be clear so sorry for people selling prematurely before the news comes to planet earth.
Org30 it may weaken or it may mutate and become much worse.
If it becomes worse then does the value of Synairgen go up a notch further? Will the Pharma CEO now have to pay a premium and explain to shareholders etc why he didnt buy the company at half the price the motnh before?
Unfortunately viruses do not weaken that quickly. There has been mutation sure, which is evidenced by the virus genome but the change is not particularly significant. The only reason imo that we have less deaths currently is that the vulnerable are better shielded currently and the spread is predominantly among younger people who are happy to take their chances as they are much less affected in general. Once, alas it gets into care homes then the death rate will accelerate. Also we will have cross virus infection as we enter the normal flu season. This will hit anyone very hard including young adults and children.
Org 30 the mortality rate depends on the demographic age profile that exists in any particular country and how much diabetes and hypertension that population has. In the UK the mortality rate is 0.85% which approximately 7 times more deadly than influenza. For those individuals over 55 years old will carry 0.849% of that mortality profile. Covid-19 is not ordinary influenza. What has changed in social distancing and the way people work and greater discipline that we have put in place to give a slower rise in deaths that occurred in the spring.
"There is a massive over reaction to this virus, more people are dying from suicide than the virus."
But isn't it likely that virus-related deaths would be a lot higher if it wasn't for the 'massive overreaction'? Sorry to hear about your treatment being delayed. Any delay in treatment is unacceptable even in normal times, imho.
Seb I'm sorry to sound so dismissive but if you're going to repeat and repeat that the virus 'might or might not be weakening then simply it's not worth engaging with you'. You're right, maybe it's weakening, maybe it's not. But there's absolutely no evidence that it's weakening. So why don't we focus on what we do know rather than speculating and ruminating on the unknowns?
I think people fail to understand why the scientific advisors are concerned and instead simplify it to 'am I likely to die? No'.
If social distancing was eased up, if restrictions were lifted, covid 19 would almost certainly rip through the entire nation pretty quickly. Yes the vast majority would survive and still a large majority would either be asymptomatic or only mildly ill. But we would also see hospitalisations far exceed the number of beds/oxygen/ventilators available and the nhs would be forced to turn away sick people and leave them to die... in their thousands. The number one priority is to not allow that to happen whilst doing a better job this time around of allowing the rest of the (seriously underfunded and under resourced already) health service to run as normal...
There is a massive over reaction to this virus, more people are dying from suicide than the virus. I am part of the vulnerable group but I am more concerned that my cancer treatment has been delayed, this is a much bigger risk to me than the virus.
The mortality profile in the UK is the same as it was on 21 March 2020.
Org it is the same virus and its just as deadly. It is that complacent view which undermines behaviour towards it.
SNG's 7 directors are 'sitting on' around ~12m shares between them (inc. ~ 8m options). Would think that's quite good motivation not to be 'held up' for too long. Oh, and they will deserve every penny.
GLA
Org,
>> Or would you spend a fortune taking a risk in 4 weeks
>> the virus is starting to weaken as all viruses in history do
If you want to use historical cases of viruses weakening then take a look at the great Kansas flu of 1918. The first wave was pretty bad. The second wave was utterly BRUTAL and killed far more people than the first. For example in the USA, the 2nd wave killed 10X times more people than the 1st wave. Not much sign of that virus weakening then.
Synairgen is the hold up. It has only 14 employees and it is to small to carry on with this. They do a deal with a much bigger company or they don't. We actually have a right to know if the company has serious interest, that offers of sorts are being put on the table. I would expect an offer very soon if its going to happen otherwise we are just sitting on very interesting science.
Before anyone asks Autumn ends on Monday 21st December in the Northern Hemisphere.
Seb, I dont think anythings delayed because no timelines were set on the next step.
What I do know is that emergency approvals are no good if distribution isn't in place. Distribution is likely to involve government(s) or licencee(s). Both licence or government agreements would come with huge political benefit to those in government therefore they would want everything in place before they announce it.
SNG have a fair few ducks to get in a row if theyre to deliver the drug to market this winter and that takes time. I'm really comfortable though because there are few alternatives, numbers are rising and we're not even into winter yet.
Seb, do you really think big pharma are sitting at home watching/listening to the news and waiting? They'll have a very good idea of where we're at with this virus and how long it may prevail. They'll also know how valuable any therapeutics are that can tackle it.
I think that's ridiculous personally. There is no question that hospitalisations and deaths are going to rise considerably over the next few months, none at all. There are those that will still think it's worth opening up as the harm caused through mass unemployment could be greater, there will be those that don't believe the striking figures from the advisors such as 50k potential deaths this winter. But nobody besides conspiracy theorists question whether we'll see rising deaths in the very near future and there is no way big pharma is 'waiting to see' what the pandemic has in store for us first!!!
Seb, from what I can tell the scientists and top experts are not divided, they overwhelmingly believe in stiffer measures to tackle the growing covid numbers... there are scientists and experts with differing opinions and different approaches but if they are in the vast minority then I think saying they are divided as a whole is a bit misleading... Many of the contrarian scientists will have ulterior motives - challenging mainstream scientific consensus makes you stand out and gives you a larger voice and bigger profile.
Now if you were to say society is divided on how we should go about tackling the crisis, then that I'd agree with.
This must be a commercial issue. I have looked at other phase two trial therapeutics results and some had results that were no better than Synairgen and got approved in two months. This is most likely about a takeover or partnership holding the whole thing up. I can not believe a decent sized company has not put a deal on the table. Everyone knows that a vaccine does not preclude the need for a therapeutic product to manage an over active immune systems and reducing lung viral load.