Synairgen Share Chat (SNG)

mattw007

just saw your reply. thank you. and interesting link.
gonna have to hunker down and comprehend these percentages!

Tommy

Excellent and grounding points.

The ducks need to line up and then either wait for a successfull PT trial, EUA or a TO. THEN it will rise.

The DD, Active-2, Long Covid data and inclusion on a trial are preconditions for a significant rise.

Otherwise, the sp would rise like Monday than come back down to a trading range slightly higher than the previous one.

Tommy - maybe not a sharp rise expected, but I thought a bit more than 2p!

One small caveat.
If an EUA was attempted and off the back of that preorders arrived that would substantially change the picture but that’s putting the cart before the horse and we’re still in the stable with the doors locked

Lots of positive a but expectations of a sharp rise after ATS are a little presumptuous IMV.

The reality is we still have no approval or even attempt at an application for one. Even if we applied on Monday that process could take 6-8 months to reach a conclusion. We still don’t have a trial and even if one is announced next week it could take many months to set up, let alone run.
Information about a PT next week May we’ll move the share upwards but it will be tempered by the reality of how long that road is likely to take.
A sharper price rise would occur off the back of an attempt at an EUA but again the time frame to getting it granted or it being successful would hold a large rise back.
It’s more likely a JV or TO would add value but they’re completely unknown to us at present.
It’s a waiting game and it could be short or long. I just hope the board has more for us on one or more of those topics

Yes the results were astounding....
We should have seen a significant rise in the SP on the back of them..
The RNS did not do justice to the news and did not attract new investors...
It is so disappointing to see we are only a few pence higher than last Friday...
Investors pay the wages and fund the research...So our CEO needs to
understand the importance of supporting them.... I thought we could
see 80p when I read the RNS...Anyway I did communicate this to Brooke,
and RM came across well in the Proactive interview, let's hope our
update next week is upbeat and highlights our outstanding DATA...Or
I will be going to the AGM.....LOL!!! ATB!

Agreed. It would've been a great result on its own, but to be on top of current Standard of Care is astounding.

Manifesto, you're right.

After this:
"In these patients, who represented approximately one-third of the SPRINTER trial population, SNG001 significantly reduced the risk of progression to severe disease and death compared to placebo by 70% in the Per Protocol population (Odds Ratio (95% Confidence Interval) 0.23 (0.06, 0.98); p=0.046)"

They should have wriiten:

"This is most excellent!!! PARTY ON most excellent prospective investors".

They had a commercial plan in place before Feb 21st. EUA application written and ready to go - confident that a pre-order would follow. Plus the commercial hires and tested production pipeline.
That all got washed away and I'd say that we don't really want a new plan yet. We were hoping DD and Activ 2 data would recover some of the value, before further announcements about the way forward. That - astonishingly to me - hasn't happened so far. As a consequence unless we get the A2 data and it's surprisingly good and/or the drug is confirmed as one of the FDA's new antiviral trialists I wouldn't be expecting anything from the AGM. Or at least I expect a reaffirmation that they're exploring platform trials and not much else. The market is bonkers though to not price in any of the potential of this bargain basment share.

The market wants evidence not only that it can (statistical significance, clinical trials) but also that it will be commercialised (a plan, EUA, JV, TO).

The RNS in Feb eroded confidence in the company.

I suspect it won't rise to previous highs without an EUA, JV or TO.

Hi Size
I disagree..If you have never invested in a pharma stock, then
just reading % is not enough particularly on AIM...Especially
when we are discussing results from a trial that failed...
Most posters here understand the significance, but I imagine
that many who saw the rise, sort out the RNS to understand
what was behind it were not given enough information ( an explanation)
to make a judgement on whether to invest or not! There was no
hint in the RNS that the Board/Team were excited by the Data....But we all were!

So is are price at the moment we have more buy then sells have good news and still the price is crap.
What ever happened to the blue Fridays

To be fair Manifesto they can't spoon feed everything. If an investor can't work out 70% is great even after improvements in SoC then they are beyond help!

Great post SeaBoy!

The power of words...

Had RM added a few comments on how exciting the results are for SNG
many more would have appreciated the % in the RNS... He said nothing..
A wasted opportunity to support investors... !! So undervalued here...IMHO!

Synairgen was backed by the states government how many small pharma did that,
I’m sure it’s on the radar and sounding have been taken

And echoing Xv's thanks to Seaboy. Nobody has ever expressed the rationale for SNG in hospitals in such a clear and authorative voice Seaboy. Someone should send it to Brooke.

“So a drug achieving a 70% reduction of progression to severe disease and death, in my opinion, is the holy grail result that we've been looking for - and we've achieved it in a sample size that was bigger than our P2 hospital arm”

My thoughts exactly especially after proving stastically significance. Hopefully the SP reflects these thoughts soon.

SeaBoy

Thank you so much. It is so helpful to have an informed response. Thank you for taking the time to reply. For all the speculation from us armchair investors, nothing beats the perspective of someone who has their boots on the ground - either in hospitals, pharma or data. All looking good here. Thanks again.

Drift off and annoy some other board with you baseless drivel

AZ already tested and failed with sng1 for several treatments, synairgen share holders got badly caught out then.

Well the respiratory rate of a patient is the most helpful vital sign that tells us how unwell they are, hence why the respiratory rate assessment comes before the cardiovascular assessments like heart rate, heart sounds, capillary refill times and blood sugars - when we're doing a top to toe assessment of a clinically deteriorating patient. Those patients typically require the kitchen sink approach of rapid stabilisation and a lot of the time they escalate to higher intensity care settings with other teams getting involved if that doesn't work. Therefore, high resps can quickly tell us which people are going to go off and how quick we'd need to act. That applies to any clinical setting and not just on a respiratory ward. Whether it's Cardiology, Psychiatry or Geriatrics, respiratory compromise is an area that needs to be sorted pronto before doing anything else. Short of sticking somebody on 15L of oxygen and chest x-raying them in the unfortunate event that somebody does have respiratory compromise, you'd want to get a therapeutic into them too.

So a drug achieving a 70% reduction of progression to severe disease and death, in my opinion, is the holy grail result that we've been looking for - and we've achieved it in a sample size that was bigger than our P2 hospital arm.

xviolet - To put it in perspective, some of the other drugs that have been approved cut progression to severe disease or death by much less than that (the Arthritis drug Baricitinib was only 13%). See here...

https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/baricitinib

Docdaneeka - interesting post.

When you consider that SNG has a market cap of £57m today, you get £25m of cash included in that! So effectively we are only worth £32m. It’s not even pocket money to big pharma.

But… we need that ACTIV P2 data and a clear route forward.

Nice post SeaBoy.

If you've got a moment can you just re-confirm that the 70% over SOC is really special. I don't really understand the percentages and data - but you seemed very confident the data is now telling a very positive story. I assume you still feel that way. I only ask because the data is beyond me at the moment. I have to invest on price (buy cheap) to compensate for what I don't understand.