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Think it contagious "Synairgen shares have enjoyed similar massive success to Novacyt. Unlike Novacyt, they are currently not far off a high of GBX 51, but have slipped in recent days to trade at GBX 38."
Not looked at board yet so sorry if this has been posted.https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/novacyt-vs-synairgen-how-do-they-stack-up/
They've referred to making millions of doses. At the moment we have 700,0000 dead worldwide, nearly 20m infected. Of those that have recovered, an unknown number with lung problems, breathing issues, other organ problems. Cases increasing again and more likely as all governments try to revive their economies. This has the potential to save most of those lives in the 2nd wave,reduce the impact of side effects for the survivors, relieve the stress on the NHS and their incredible staff and provide a pathway to begin to reopen the economy properly. Price that. Get the WAY sorted
Could be the terminology but yea it doesn't quite add up that way. Its rather academic though because even if SNG produce, say, 1m doses; each patient is treated 1 dose a day for 14 days so that's only 70k patients. If this drug does what it says on the tin, 1 (even 2, 3 or4) million doses will never meet demand. Thats why there's such a high chance of a licence.
My misteak. I'd been reading another trial and got mixed up.
ventilated infants thought there had been only a handful of them?
where did you get your figures from?
A course is made up of a number of doses?
Does anyone else think there is an anomaly in Finncap’s numbers?
They talk about 1m doses but surely it is $2-3K per course not per dose. In which case $2-3bn could be out by a factor of 10!
They can’t have got it that wrong can they?!
The general consensus before the readout was that the hospital trial would show the weakest signal out of Hospital/home/COPD. The earlier the better so there could be a huge pre-admission market. They obviously have to demonstrate that though.
Prophylactic use is also a possibility. If I rememeber correctly it was used in a hospital in China earlier in the year in that way. I suspect if they time ever get as far as demonstrating that then most of us will be long gone!
Given they are doing a home arm of study as well that implies potential pool of patients could be much bigger.
More and more is coming out about "long covid" and the cost of this. They will want to identify risk factors rather than treat everyone prophylacticly I think (IMHO). If we say 10% of non hospitalised patients too then we are going to need a bigger boat.
There again we havent seen the at home data so chickens counting ....
Jeez it gets worse. Risk weighting not waiting.
There again....
Thanks all. We can all await our recruitment calls from Finncapp.
The risk waiting is fine if buying mutiple risks. We are not so it will either be a lot more or a lot less. Additionally given the statistical analysis is already available 50% chance would seem way off.
However, the consensus has spoken - exciting times but I've no finger nails left.
Yea i understand its just ahead of this winter and the latest interview RM was talking millions (plural). 1 million doses only treats about 70k patients over a 14 day course so its not enough. However if Finncap/SNG can point to or even generate that kind of revenue it drives the licence price up. All good!
ChrisToffer - FinnCap is basing numbers on 1 million doses in what's left of 2020 - more doses higher numbers I guess
Ah thanks Jess, thats the one ha!
Hi Rorkes, yea that sounds reasonable and I dont think is too far off the finncap comment in a proactive investors report.
FinnCap have it pegged around $2-3bn/year
"Valuation. We raise our target price to 360p (sum-of-the-parts rNPV). It assumes a 50%
chance of SNG001 reaching the market. However, it is within the realms of possibility that
Synairgen will receive orders from governments ahead of the winter flu season and
potential second wave of COVID-19 infections. Based on pricing points for Rebif and
Avonex and Gilead’s remdesivir ($2-3,000 per treatment) and the prospect of Synairgen
being able to supply up to 1m doses by the end of 2020, it is not inconceivable that an
order book of $2-3bn could be generated by the year-end, which would imply a valuation
substantially higher than 360p (c.£0.5bn market cap)."
1300 x 750 I mean
Thanks Chris. So if we say 10% at £750 (premium over systemic).
That would give 1300 cases per day in US/Europe.
120 x £750 = £900,000 revenue per day.. Call it £1M
Given prevelance will come and go but heading into winter then revenues of £1-£2B.
Does that sound right?
Hi Rorkes, NICE quote interferon treatments like Rebif etc at c.£500.
On the COVID angle, Remdesivir quote anywhere between $300-400 a dose or $1500-2000 a course (think it's a 5 day course). They do out licence to generic drug makers in developing countries who then sell for as little as $50 a dose.
Hard to project the numbers as it should eventually be proven effective as an early treatment for at risk people (care homes etc). With nearly 19 million coronavirus cases to date though it only takes 10-15% of that number to start generating huge revenue. There could potentially also be stockpiling on fears of second/third waves.
There's also the COPD market.
Hope - I meant help
Or did I......
So I bought my third lot today and trying to remain balanced. I am trying to confirm my assumptions though.
The drug is used earlier in the disease than ventilated infants. What % of cases would hit criteria? UK report 1000 cases I'm thinking translates to 20 people treated but struggling.
I'm struggling to find price estimates. Currently I'm using £1500 per case but suspect that's low.